scholarly journals Flood Prediction using Artificial Neural Network

Author(s):  
Chaitanya Thekkunja ◽  
Dr. ShivaKumar G. S ◽  
Shubhang S Aroor

Floods are one of the foremost catastrophic natural disasters, and, thanks to their complex nature, it's tough to make a predictive model. The advanced research works on flood prediction models have contributed to risk reduction, policy suggestion, minimization of the loss of human life, and reduced property damage related to floods. In general, ML algorithms are utilized in the event of prediction systems, to mimic the complex mathematical expressions of the physical processes of floods providing better performance and cost-effective solutions. The MLP model is implemented in this system by calculating accuracy values with examining the confusion matrix parameters. The proposed system analyses the dataset using Multilayer Perceptron Classifier (MLP) algorithm to coach the predictive model, and floods are often predicted.

Author(s):  
Amir Mosavi ◽  
Pinar Ozturk ◽  
Chau Kwok-wing

Floods are among the most destructive natural disasters, which are highly complex to model. The research on the advancement of flood prediction models has been contributing to risk reduction, policy suggestion, minimizing loss of human life and reducing the property damage associated with floods. To mimic the complex mathematical expressions of physical processes of floods, during the past two decades, machine learning (ML) methods have highly contributed in the advancement of prediction systems providing better performance and cost effective solutions. Due to the vast benefits and potential of ML, its popularity has dramatically increased among hydrologists. Researchers through introducing the novel ML methods and hybridization of the existing ones have been aiming at discovering more accurate and efficient prediction models. The main contribution is to demonstrate the state of the art of ML models in flood prediction and give an insight over the most suitable models. The literature where ML models are benchmarked through a qualitative analysis of robustness, accuracy, effectiveness, and speed have been particularly investigated to provide an extensive overview on various ML algorithms usage in the field. The performance comparison of ML models presents an in-depth understanding about the different techniques within the framework of a comprehensive evaluation and discussion. As the result, the paper introduces the most promising prediction methods for both long-term and short-term floods. Furthermore, the major trends in improving the quality of the flood prediction models are investigated. Among them, hybridization, data decomposition, algorithm ensemble, and model optimization are reported the most effective strategy in improvement of the ML methods. This survey can be used as a guideline for the hydrologists as well as climate scientists to assist them choosing the proper ML method according to the prediction task conclusions.


Author(s):  
Amir Mosavi ◽  
Pinar Ozturk ◽  
Kwok-wing Chau

Floods are among the most destructive natural disasters, which are highly complex to model. The research on the advancement of flood prediction models has been contributing to risk reduction, policy suggestion, minimizing loss of human life and reducing the property damage associated with floods. To mimic the complex mathematical expressions of physical processes of floods, during the past two decades, machine learning (ML) methods have highly contributed in the advancement of prediction systems providing better performance and cost effective solutions. Due to the vast benefits and potential of ML, its popularity has dramatically increased among hydrologists. Researchers through introducing the novel ML methods and hybridization of the existing ones have been aiming at discovering more accurate and efficient prediction models. The main contribution is to demonstrate the state of the art of ML models in flood prediction and give an insight over the most suitable models. The literature where ML models are benchmarked through a qualitative analysis of robustness, accuracy, effectiveness, and speed have been particularly investigated to provide an extensive overview on various ML algorithms usage in the field. The performance comparison of ML models presents an in-depth understanding about the different techniques within the framework of a comprehensive evaluation and discussion. As the result, the paper introduces the most promising prediction methods for both long-term and short-term floods. Furthermore, the major trends in improving the quality of the flood prediction models are investigated. Among them, hybridization, data decomposition, algorithm ensemble, and model optimization are reported the most effective strategy in improvement of the ML methods. This survey can be used as a guideline for the hydrologists as well as climate scientists to assist them choosing the proper ML method according to the prediction task conclusions.


Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 1536 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amir Mosavi ◽  
Pinar Ozturk ◽  
Kwok-wing Chau

Floods are among the most destructive natural disasters, which are highly complex to model. The research on the advancement of flood prediction models contributed to risk reduction, policy suggestion, minimization of the loss of human life, and reduction of the property damage associated with floods. To mimic the complex mathematical expressions of physical processes of floods, during the past two decades, machine learning (ML) methods contributed highly in the advancement of prediction systems providing better performance and cost-effective solutions. Due to the vast benefits and potential of ML, its popularity dramatically increased among hydrologists. Researchers through introducing novel ML methods and hybridizing of the existing ones aim at discovering more accurate and efficient prediction models. The main contribution of this paper is to demonstrate the state of the art of ML models in flood prediction and to give insight into the most suitable models. In this paper, the literature where ML models were benchmarked through a qualitative analysis of robustness, accuracy, effectiveness, and speed are particularly investigated to provide an extensive overview on the various ML algorithms used in the field. The performance comparison of ML models presents an in-depth understanding of the different techniques within the framework of a comprehensive evaluation and discussion. As a result, this paper introduces the most promising prediction methods for both long-term and short-term floods. Furthermore, the major trends in improving the quality of the flood prediction models are investigated. Among them, hybridization, data decomposition, algorithm ensemble, and model optimization are reported as the most effective strategies for the improvement of ML methods. This survey can be used as a guideline for hydrologists as well as climate scientists in choosing the proper ML method according to the prediction task.


Flood are one of the unfavorable natural disasters. A flood can result in a huge loss of human lives and properties. It can also affect agricultural lands and destroy cultivated crops and trees. The flood can occur as a result of surface-runoff formed from melting snow, long-drawn-out rains, and derisory drainage of rainwater or collapse of dams. Today people have destroyed the rivers and lakes and have turned the natural water storage pools to buildings and construction lands. Flash floods can develop quickly within a few hours when compared with a regular flood. Research in prediction of flood has improved to reduce the loss of human life, property damages, and various problems related to the flood. Machine learning methods are widely used in building an efficient prediction model for weather forecasting. This advancement of the prediction system provides cost-effective solutions and better performance. In this paper, a prediction model is constructed using rainfall data to predict the occurrence of floods due to rainfall. The model predicts whether “flood may happen or not” based on the rainfall range for particular locations. Indian district rainfall data is used to build the prediction model. The dataset is trained with various algorithms like Linear Regression, K- Nearest Neighbor, Support Vector Machine, and Multilayer Perceptron. Among this, MLP algorithm performed efficiently with the highest accuracy of 97.40%. The MLP flash flood prediction model can be useful for the climate scientist to predict the flood during a heavy downpour with the highest accuracy.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marco Rodrigo López López ◽  
Adrián Pedrozo Acuña

<p><span>Floods and puddles are incidents that occur every year in Mexico City. The surface runoff that occurs in areas of hills and mountains, such as torrential rains where precipitation is greater than the drainage capacity, are the main factors that give rise to floods in the city. The measures that have been implemented to control floods have focused more on reactive planning instead of implementing prevention measures; so the city is completely dependent on its drainage system to mitigate flooding. For these reasons, the forecast has become essential to respond to the demand for better risk management due to the exposure of infrastructure and people to flood events; and coupled with the uncertainty of future events in Mexico City.</span></p><p><span>Rainfall is the main source of uncertainty in flood prediction; That is why, in recent years, the Numerical Climate Prediction Models (NWP) have focused on the generation of Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS); which constitute a feasible method to predict the probability distribution function of atmospheric evolution.</span></p><p><span>The objective of this work is to evaluate the Operational Ensemble Prediction System issued by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) to open the doors to the development of a Flood Forecasting System in Mexico City. The EPS was evaluated against observed rainfall for two study zones: Mexico Valley Basin and Mexico City, where for the latter, the forecasts were compared against information of real time observed rainfall. To carry out an objective analysis of the quality of the forecast, metrics were applied for the scalar attributes: precision, reliability, resolution, discrimination and performance. The probabilities given by the ensembles were estimated using a predictive model.</span></p><p><span>The results show the EPS do represent the probability distribution of the observed events. The first 36 hours of forecasting are the most reliable, after which uncertainty increases. Finally, the predictive model shows good performance in estimating probabilities according to the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.</span></p>


2017 ◽  
Vol 50 (2) ◽  
pp. 995 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Tsitroulis ◽  
K. Voudouris ◽  
A. Vasileiou ◽  
C. Mattas ◽  
Μ. Sapountzis ◽  
...  

Floods are one of the most common natural hazards in global range and could threat the human life, health, environment and infrastructure. The aim of this paper is the estimation and the delimitation of the likely flood hazard zones, for different rainfall intensities in the upper part of Gallikos river basin (central Macedonia) according to the European directive 2007/60. For the analysis of the meteorological data and the construction of flood zone maps, HYDROGNOMON, HEC-HMS, HEC-RAS free software packages were used. The thematic maps were constructed with ESRI GIS. The results are depicted in flood inundation maps, delimitating and visualizing the scale of the flood hazard effect in the area. The construction of flood prediction models is a very useful tool towards the direction of the design of an efficient flood management framework.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sina Faizollahzadeh Ardabili ◽  
Amir Mosavi ◽  
Pedram Ghamisi ◽  
Filip Ferdinand ◽  
Annamaria R. Varkonyi-Koczy ◽  
...  

Several outbreak prediction models for COVID-19 are being used by officials around the world to make informed-decisions and enforce relevant control measures. Among the standard models for COVID-19 global pandemic prediction, simple epidemiological and statistical models have received more attention by authorities, and they are popular in the media. Due to a high level of uncertainty and lack of essential data, standard models have shown low accuracy for long-term prediction. Although the literature includes several attempts to address this issue, the essential generalization and robustness abilities of existing models needs to be improved. This paper presents a comparative analysis of machine learning and soft computing models to predict the COVID-19 outbreak as an alternative to SIR and SEIR models. Among a wide range of machine learning models investigated, two models showed promising results (i.e., multi-layered perceptron, MLP, and adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system, ANFIS). Based on the results reported here, and due to the highly complex nature of the COVID-19 outbreak and variation in its behavior from nation-to-nation, this study suggests machine learning as an effective tool to model the outbreak. This paper provides an initial benchmarking to demonstrate the potential of machine learning for future research. Paper further suggests that real novelty in outbreak prediction can be realized through integrating machine learning and SEIR models.


2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew W. Kirkpatrick ◽  
Jessica L. McKee ◽  
John M. Conly

AbstractCOVID-19 has impacted human life globally and threatens to overwhelm health-care resources. Infection rates are rapidly rising almost everywhere, and new approaches are required to both prevent transmission, but to also monitor and rescue infected and at-risk patients from severe complications. Point-of-care lung ultrasound has received intense attention as a cost-effective technology that can aid early diagnosis, triage, and longitudinal follow-up of lung health. Detecting pleural abnormalities in previously healthy lungs reveal the beginning of lung inflammation eventually requiring mechanical ventilation with sensitivities superior to chest radiographs or oxygen saturation monitoring. Using a paradigm first developed for space-medicine known as Remotely Telementored Self-Performed Ultrasound (RTSPUS), motivated patients with portable smartphone support ultrasound probes can be guided completely remotely by a remote lung imaging expert to longitudinally follow the health of their own lungs. Ultrasound probes can be couriered or even delivered by drone and can be easily sterilized or dedicated to one or a commonly exposed cohort of individuals. Using medical outreach supported by remote vital signs monitoring and lung ultrasound health surveillance would allow clinicians to follow and virtually lay hands upon many at-risk paucisymptomatic patients. Our initial experiences with such patients are presented, and we believe present a paradigm for an evolution in rich home-monitoring of the many patients expected to become infected and who threaten to overwhelm resources if they must all be assessed in person by at-risk care providers.


2021 ◽  
Vol 769 (2) ◽  
pp. 022001
Author(s):  
Zeyu Zhang ◽  
Jiayue Qiu ◽  
Xuefei Huang ◽  
Zhiming Cai ◽  
Linkai Zhu ◽  
...  

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