scholarly journals ASYMMETRIC EFFECT OF OIL SHOCKS ON FOOD PRICES IN NIGERIA: A NON LINEAR AUTOREGRESSIVE DISTRIBUTED LAGS ANALYSIS

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 128-134 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdulaziz Shehu ◽  
Shafii Sayuti Abdullah ◽  
Nasiru Alhaji Yau
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 92
Author(s):  
Mouldi Djelassi ◽  
Mdalla Omrani

In this study, we attempt to study the impact of oil shocks on the economic activity of eight emerging countries with different importing and exporting profiles, targeting and non-targeting inflation and thus verify the hypothesis of non-linearity. To do this, we used the VECM methodology. In addition to oil prices (the linear variation and its volatility, positive and negative movements in prices), we introduced the interest rate and industrial production as a proxy variable of the activity. The result shows that the economies of these countries are generally more sensitive to net increases in oil prices than to their volatility. Thus, the asymmetrical impact is clearly proven in the results especially in the long run. If the rise in oil prices negatively affects production, the decline does not favor its reshuffle. Indeed, if increases in oil prices reduce economic growth, their declines have no expansionary effect. In addition, the distinction between exporting and importing countries is not obvious. Furthermore, the addition of interest rates indicates that the first prefigurations indicate a tightening of interest rates by the central banks of the target and non-target countries selected in our study.


2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 253-268
Author(s):  
KP Prabheesh ◽  
Nisful Laila

This paper empirically examines the impact of the price of crude oil petrol and palm oil on Indonesia's economic growth. Using quarterly data from 2000 to 2019 and linear, and non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to cointegration, the study finds 1) A significant non-linear effect of oil prices on country's output. 2) The palm oil price changes have a higher effect on the country's output as compared to petroleum prices. 3) A decline in palm price in the international market leads to a higher adverse effect on the country's economic growth as compared to petroleum prices.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hadj Cherif Houda ◽  
Zhenling Chen ◽  
Guohua Ni

Abstract This paper explores the complex nexus between the global oil prices and the food prices of Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region during the period 2000–2020. Both linear and nonlinear models of the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach are adapted into panel data form to investigate the symmetrical and asymmetrical influence of oil prices on food prices. The key results are summarized: i) The effect of oil prices on food prices is significantly positive including both oil-exporting and oil-importing nations are verified in the long-term. The positive impact on oil-exporters—due to higher oil revenues—is greater than importing nations, leading to an increased demand for food. Additionally, the effect on oil-exporters is negative and significant in the short-term but not significant for importers. ii) The panel analysis for the MENA sample confirms the presence of negative short-term asymmetric behaviour, while in the long-term, the asymmetric effect is positive, indicating that food prices increase regardless of fluctuations in oil prices. iii) Wald test results support asymmetric co-integration for the whole sample of the MENA due to the heterogeneous response within the oil-importing and exporting samples. Specifically, the non-linear ARDL test results affirm the absence of an asymmetric nexus among oil and food prices for oil-exporting group (including Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates) and Tunisia within the oil-importing group. Although there are differences in the direction and degree, the food prices of other countries are asymmetric to the oil price. This study provides recommendations that are useful to MENA countries to establish a stable mechanism for oil and food prices to ensure food security in the region.


2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
Hicham Ayad

Abstract Research background: The aim of this paper is to examine the long run relationship among oil prices and the Algerian Dinar exchange rate over the period January 1995–February 2020 in Algeria as one of the most important oil-exporting countries and one of the OPEC members. Purpose: This study investigated the co-integration relationship between oil prices and exchange rate in Algeria by testing the long-run relationship between the two variables and their positive and negative shocks. Research methodology: the study applied both the traditional co-integration analysis using Engle-Granger, Phillips-Ouliaris and Johansen-Juselius tests and the hidden co-integration presented by Granger and Yoon (2002). Results: The results revealed that there is no evidence of a co-movement and linkage between oil prices and exchange rate in Algeria over the period of study neither with the original series nor between the cumulative components whatever the dependent variable. Novelty: This paper fills in the missing link between the Algerian Dinar exchange rate and oil prices especially with the absence of the hidden co-integration analysis in the case of Algeria and most of the developing countries. To deal with the oil shocks according to Apergis and Miller (2007) and Narayan and Gupta (2015) studies where when they suggested distinguishing between the negative and positive oil price shocks because the asymmetric effect on the macroeconomic variables.


2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 78
Author(s):  
Aminu Hassan Jakada ◽  
Suraya Mahmood ◽  
Ali Umar Ahmad ◽  
Ibrahim Sambo Farouq ◽  
Umar Aliyu Mustapha

The present study examines the asymmetric effect of financial development on the quality of environment in Nigeria from 1970 to 2018. The study employed the techniques of non-linear ARDL approach as well as Diks and Panchenko (2006) non-linear test of causality. A comprehensive index of financial development is constructed using PCA. The empirical outcomes of the study reveal that financial development in Nigeria impedes the quality of the environment. The government should encourage lenders to ease the funding for the energy sector and allocate financial resources for environment-friendly businesses rather than wasting them in consumer financing. Moreover, economic growth and FDI are positively and significantly related to carbon emissions. On this basis, the government should introduce environmentally friendly technologies that will help improve the quality of the environment, increase long-term sustainability, and save resources for generations to come. A key policy consequence of this study is also that the FDI inflow to pollution-intensive industries should be closely monitored.


2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 112-127 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudio Ferrari ◽  
Malvina Marchese ◽  
Alessio Tei

Purpose Economic studies have always underlined the cyclical trends of many industries and their different relations to the macro-economic cycles. Shipping is one of those industries and it has been often characterised by peaks that have influenced both the trade patterns and industry investment structure (e.g. fleet, shipyard activity, freight rates). One of the main issues related with the cycles is the effect on overcapacity and prices for newbuilding and how the understanding of these patterns can help in preventing short-hand strategies. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate different effects of business elements on shipbuilding activity, in relation to different economic-cycle phases. Design/methodology/approach This paper proposes a non-linear econometric model to identify the relations between shipbuilding and economic cycles over the past 30 years. The research focuses on identifying the cycle characteristics and understanding the asymmetrical effect of economic- and business-related variables on its development. Findings The study underlines the presence of an asymmetric effect of several business variables on the shipbuilding productions, depending on the cyclical phases (i.e. market expansion or economic slowdown). Moreover, lagged effects seem to be stronger than contemporaneous variables. Originality/value The paper is a first attempt of using non-linear modelling to shipbuilding cycles, giving indications that could be included in relevant investment policies.


1967 ◽  
Vol 28 ◽  
pp. 105-176
Author(s):  
Robert F. Christy

(Ed. note: The custom in these Symposia has been to have a summary-introductory presentation which lasts about 1 to 1.5 hours, during which discussion from the floor is minor and usually directed at technical clarification. The remainder of the session is then devoted to discussion of the whole subject, oriented around the summary-introduction. The preceding session, I-A, at Nice, followed this pattern. Christy suggested that we might experiment in his presentation with a much more informal approach, allowing considerable discussion of the points raised in the summary-introduction during its presentation, with perhaps the entire morning spent in this way, reserving the afternoon session for discussion only. At Varenna, in the Fourth Symposium, several of the summaryintroductory papers presented from the astronomical viewpoint had been so full of concepts unfamiliar to a number of the aerodynamicists-physicists present, that a major part of the following discussion session had been devoted to simply clarifying concepts and then repeating a considerable amount of what had been summarized. So, always looking for alternatives which help to increase the understanding between the different disciplines by introducing clarification of concept as expeditiously as possible, we tried Christy's suggestion. Thus you will find the pattern of the following different from that in session I-A. I am much indebted to Christy for extensive collaboration in editing the resulting combined presentation and discussion. As always, however, I have taken upon myself the responsibility for the final editing, and so all shortcomings are on my head.)


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