scholarly journals THE ASYMMETRIC EFFECT OF OIL PRICE ON THE EXCHANGE RATE AND STOCK PRICE IN NIGERIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 202-208
Author(s):  
Kamaldeen Ajala ◽  
Musa Abdullahi Sakanko ◽  
Sesan Oluseyi Adeniji
Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 1695
Author(s):  
Shahriyar Mukhtarov ◽  
Sugra Humbatova ◽  
Mubariz Mammadli ◽  
Natig Gadim‒Oglu Hajiyev

This study investigates the influence of oil price shocks on GDP per capita, exchange rate, and total trade turnover in Azerbaijan using the Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) method to data collected from 1992 to 2019. The estimation results of the SVAR method conclude that oil price shocks (rise in oil prices) affect GDP per capita and total trade turnover positively, whereas its influence on the exchange rate is negative in the case of Azerbaijan. According to results of this study, Azerbaijan and similar oil-exporting countries should reduce the dependence of GDP per capita, the exchange rate, and total trade turnover from oil resources and its prices in the global market. Therefore, these countries should attempt to the diversification of GDP per capita, the exchange rate, and other sources of total trade turnover.


2019 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 117-129
Author(s):  
Jana Šimáková ◽  
Nikola Rusková

The aim of the paper is to evaluate the effect of exchange rates on the stock prices of companies in the chemical industry listed on the stock exchanges in the Visegrad Four countries. The empirical analysis was performed from September 2003 to June 2016 on companies from the petrochemical and pharmaceutical industry. The effect of the exchange rate on stock prices is analyzed using Jorion’s approach on monthly data. In contrast to the selected petrochemical companies, the pharmaceutical companies did not use any hedging instruments in the tested period. The effect of the exchange rate on the stock price was proved only in the case of companies from the pharmaceutical industry. This suggests that exchange rate risk could be eliminated by using hedging instruments.


2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 89-113
Author(s):  
Adeleke Omolade ◽  
Philip Nwosa ◽  
Harold Ngalawa

Abstract Research background: The need for diversification of the Nigerian economy has been emphasized and the manufacturing sector has a major role in this. Being an oil producing country, monetary policy is an important macroeconomic policy that has always been used to manage the influence of oil price shock on the manufacturing sector. Purpose: The study examines the relationship between oil price shock, the monetary transmission mechanism and manufacturing output growth in Nigeria. Research methodology: The study applied the structural vector auto regression (SVAR) modelling technique and a descriptive analysis. Results: The results of the study show that the exchange rate is mostly affected by the oil price shock, while the monetary policy instruments and inflation rate are also very responsive to the exchange rate shock. The manufacturing sector output growth has also been shown to be strongly affected by the inflation rate and monetary policy shocks. Novelty: The study has revealed the most effective channel via which oil price shocks affect manufacturing output. The exchange rate channel of the monetary policy transmission mechanism is the most significant channel through which oil price shock affects manufacturing output growth in Nigeria. This shows that effective management of the exchange rate policy via the appropriate monetary policy approach can be used to minimize the adverse effect of oil price shocks on Nigerian manufacturing output.


2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 839-852 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huthaifa Alqaralleh

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the nonlinear dynamics in the effects of oil price shocks on the exchange rate for a sample from the Group of Twenty (G20) over the period 1994:1-2019:1. Design/methodology/approach Using monthly time series data covering the period1994:1-2019:1, the author first use the non-parametric triples test of Randles et al. (1980) to ascertain the existence of asymmetric properties in the sample of exchange rates. Then the author used the nonlinear ARDL cointegration approach developed by Shin et al. (2014) to examine the reaction of these exchange rates to the oil price shocks. Findings This study has identified significant evidence that the exchange rate is asymmetrically distributed, with the effect that high appreciation of the exchange rate is followed by slower depreciation. The NARDL results support such asymmetry even more strongly because in the test the exchange rate is shown to react differently in the long term to positive and negative shocks in oil prices. Another major finding was that the speed of adjustment differed over the sample, as the cumulative dynamic multipliers effect highlighted. Research limitations/implications This change in direction and the employment of non-linear technique can be to obtain better insight into the model specification, which the author believes, will not only enhance the findings in the literature but also enhance forecasting and decision-making. Practical implications A practical implication of this change is the possibility that policymakers and participants concerned with exchange rate stability should intervene in the market to alleviate the unfavourable impact of oil price shocks on the exchange rate. Originality/value Addressing this nonlinear dynamic in the effects of oil price shocks on the exchange rate have at least the following two important reasons: asymmetry and regime change are types of nonlinearities that affect the market dynamics, especially, over marked sample period with such financial crises as the global financial crises of 2007, thereby violating the linear models. Adopting an asymmetric cointegration technique permits to incorporate cointegrated positive and negative components of the considered series.


Economies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 107
Author(s):  
Mirzosaid Sultonov

Russia’s international comportment and geostrategic moves, particularly the invasion of Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea in 2014, caused a substantial change in its international economic and political relations. In response to Russia’s invasion, the United States of America, the European Union, and their allies imposed a series of sanctions. In this study, by applying an exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model to daily logarithmic returns of the ruble exchange rate and the closing price index of the Russian Trading System, we analyze how the returns and volatility of the exchange rate and the stock price index responded to the sanctions and oil price changes. The estimation results show that the sanctions have a significant positive short-term impact on exchange rate returns. Economic sanctions have a significant negative long-term impact on the returns and variance of the exchange rate and a significant positive long-term impact on the returns of the stock price index. Financial sanctions have a positive/negative long-term impact on the returns of the exchange rate/stock price index and a positive long-term impact on the variance of the exchange rate and the stock price index. Corporate sanctions have a positive long-term impact on exchange rate returns.


2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fitri Ramadani

Thepurpose of this research is to knowthe influence of inflation,interestrates, and the exchange rate of the rupiah against the stock price. This research wasconducted on 30 companies secto rproperty and real estatelisted onthe IndonesiastockexchangePeriod 2012 – 2014. Data analysis techniques used in research namely OLS (Ordinary Least Square)through the help of multiple software SPSS version 18.0. Research results indicate that simultaneous inflation, interest rates, the rupiah exchanger ateand effect on stock prices. Research partially indicate that inflation is not a negative and apositive effect against the stock price, while the negative effect of interest rates significantly to the stock price and the exchange rate of rupiah apositive significant effect against the stock price.


Author(s):  
Mohd Shahidan Shaari ◽  
Rossanto Dwi Handoyo ◽  
Syekha Maulana Ilyas ◽  
Abdul Rahim Ridzuan ◽  
Nur Azirah Zahida Mohamad Azhar

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