scholarly journals Stability of risk attitude across choice contexts and frames

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Nicholas Robert Brown
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Risk Preferences ◽  
Additive Model ◽  
Risk Attitude ◽  
Psychological Research ◽  
Risky Choice ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Choice Data ◽  
Decision Frames ◽  
Substantial Heterogeneity

We report the results of the large-scale study of risk attitude demonstrating substantial heterogeneity both between and within decision makers across three risky choice contexts: financial, mortality and climate change. We use a p-additive model of risk to classify decision makers according to their risk attitude in each context and frame (i.e., gains or losses). Our results indicate that while some decision makers exhibit stable risk preferences across contexts and decision frames, many others have risk preferences which vary depending on the choice environment. We find almost no evidence of the reflection effect for individual DMs or in choice data aggregated across DMs. We discuss the implications for economic and psychological research and modeling of risk attitudes, emphasizing that any one-size-fits-all approach to risk attitude such as assuming risk neutrality or risk aversion is unlikely to accurately describe the choice behavior of decision makers.

scholarly journals Risky-choice framing and rational decision-making

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah A. Fisher ◽  
David R. Mandel
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Framing Effects ◽  
Psychological Research ◽  
Risky Choice ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Rational Decision ◽  
Rational Decision Making ◽  
Choice Framing

This article surveys the latest research on risky-choice framing effects, focusing on the implications for rational decision-making. An influential program of psychological research suggests that people’s judgements and decisions depend on the way in which information is presented, or ‘framed’. In a central choice paradigm, decision-makers seem to adopt different preferences, and different attitudes to risk, depending on whether the options specify the number of people who will be saved or the corresponding number who will die. It is standardly assumed that such responses violate a foundational tenet of rational decision-making, known as the principle of description invariance. We discuss recent theoretical and empirical research that challenges the dominant ‘irrationalist’ narrative. These approaches typically pay close attention to how decision-makers represent decision problems (including their interpretation of numerical quantifiers or predicate choice) and they highlight the need for a more robust characterization of the description invariance principle. We conclude by indicating avenues for future research that could bring us closer to a complete – and potentially rationalizing – explanation of framing effects.

scholarly journals Teaching & Learning Guide for: Risky-choice framing and rational decision-making

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah A. Fisher ◽  
David R. Mandel
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Psychological Research ◽  
Risky Choice ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Rational Decision ◽  
Rational Decision Making ◽  
Alternative Approaches ◽  
Learning Guide ◽  
Choice Framing

An influential program of psychological research suggests that people’s judgements and decisions depend on the way in which information is presented, or ‘framed’. In a central choice paradigm, decision-makers seem to adopt different preferences, and different attitudes to risk, depending on whether the options specify the number of people who will be saved or the corresponding number who will die. It is standardly assumed that such responses violate a foundational tenet of rational decision-making, known as the principle of description invariance. However, recent theoretical and empirical research has begun to challenge the dominant ‘irrationalist’ narrative. The alternative approaches being developed typically pay close attention to how decision- makers represent decision problems (including their interpretation of numerical quantifiers or predicate choice). They also highlight the need for a more robust characterization of the description invariance principle itself.

Haunted by a Doppelgänger

2014 ◽  
Vol 61 (1) ◽  
pp. 12-22 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bettina von Helversen ◽  
Stefan M. Herzog ◽  
Jörg Rieskamp
Keyword(s):  
Relevant Information ◽  
Psychological Research ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Human Judgment ◽  
Rule Based ◽  
New Employees ◽  
High Performing ◽  
Facial Similarity ◽  
Similarity Effect ◽  
Judgment Strategy

Judging other people is a common and important task. Every day professionals make decisions that affect the lives of other people when they diagnose medical conditions, grant parole, or hire new employees. To prevent discrimination, professional standards require that decision makers render accurate and unbiased judgments solely based on relevant information. Facial similarity to previously encountered persons can be a potential source of bias. Psychological research suggests that people only rely on similarity-based judgment strategies if the provided information does not allow them to make accurate rule-based judgments. Our study shows, however, that facial similarity to previously encountered persons influences judgment even in situations in which relevant information is available for making accurate rule-based judgments and where similarity is irrelevant for the task and relying on similarity is detrimental. In two experiments in an employment context we show that applicants who looked similar to high-performing former employees were judged as more suitable than applicants who looked similar to low-performing former employees. This similarity effect was found despite the fact that the participants used the relevant résumé information about the applicants by following a rule-based judgment strategy. These findings suggest that similarity-based and rule-based processes simultaneously underlie human judgment.

Methods for the Quantification of Salivary Cortisol and of a-amylase in Biosensors and Portable Devices

2018 ◽  
Vol 68 (12) ◽  
pp. 2857-2859
Author(s):  
Cristina Mihaela Ghiciuc ◽  
Andreea Silvana Szalontay ◽  
Luminita Radulescu ◽  
Sebastian Cozma ◽  
Catalina Elena Lupusoru ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Medical Practice ◽  
Salivary Cortisol ◽  
Clinical Studies ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Psychological Research ◽  
Portable Devices ◽  
Salivary Amylase ◽  
Specificity And Sensitivity

There is an increasing interest in the analysis of salivary biomarkers for medical practice. The objective of this article was to identify the specificity and sensitivity of quantification methods used in biosensors or portable devices for the determination of salivary cortisol and salivary a-amylase. There are no biosensors and portable devices for salivary amylase and cortisol that are used on a large scale in clinical studies. These devices would be useful in assessing more real-time psychological research in the future.

The Price of Predictability: Estimating Inconsistency Premiums in Social Interactions

2021 ◽  
pp. 014616722199853
Author(s):  
Judith Gerten ◽  
Michael K. Zürn ◽  
Sascha Topolinski
Keyword(s):  
Risk Premium ◽  
Psychological Research ◽  
Expected Value ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Expected Returns ◽  
Expected Return ◽  
Total N ◽  
Financial Decision ◽  
Variance Risk ◽  
Risky Option

For financial decision-making, people trade off the expected value (return) and the variance (risk) of an option, preferring higher returns to lower ones and lower risks to higher ones. To make decision-makers indifferent between a risky and risk-free option, the expected value of the risky option must exceed the value of the risk-free option by a certain amount—the risk premium. Previous psychological research suggests that similar to risk aversion, people dislike inconsistency in an interaction partner’s behavior. In eight experiments (total N = 2,412) we pitted this inconsistency aversion against the expected returns from interacting with an inconsistent partner. We identified the additional expected return of interacting with an inconsistent partner that must be granted to make decision-makers prefer a more profitable, but inconsistent partner to a consistent, but less profitable one. We locate this inconsistency premium at around 31% of the expected value of the risk-free option.

Evaluation of the development ability of medical association based on evidential reasoning and prospect theory

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
Tao Zhang ◽  
Shizheng Li ◽  
Jin Wang
Keyword(s):  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Risk Attitude ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Evidential Reasoning ◽  
Evaluation Index System ◽  
Evaluation Index ◽  
Equivalent Transformation ◽  
Qualitative And Quantitative ◽  
Quantitative Indexes

China has proposed medical couplet body to alleviate residents’ difficulties in seeking medical treatment, and the future development ability of medical couplet body has gradually become a research interest. On the basis of prospect theory, this study constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system with qualitative and quantitative indexes, clear hierarchy, and diverse attribute characteristics. The development ability of medical couplet body is also comprehensively and systematically evaluated. In addition, the evidential reasoning method is proposed on the basis of the equivalent transformation of prospect value. Furthermore, the validity and feasibility of the model are proven through experiments, and the influence of decision makers’ risk attitude on the evaluation results is discussed.

scholarly journals The Role of Risk Preferences in Responses to Messaging About COVID-19 Vaccine Take-Up

2021 ◽  
pp. 194855062199962
Author(s):  
Jennifer S. Trueblood ◽  
Abigail B. Sussman ◽  
Daniel O’Leary
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Risk Preferences ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Flu Vaccine ◽  
Nationally Representative

Development of an effective COVID-19 vaccine is widely considered as one of the best paths to ending the current health crisis. While the ability to distribute a vaccine in the short-term remains uncertain, the availability of a vaccine alone will not be sufficient to stop disease spread. Instead, policy makers will need to overcome the additional hurdle of rapid widespread adoption. In a large-scale nationally representative survey ( N = 34,200), the current work identifies monetary risk preferences as a correlate of take-up of an anticipated COVID-19 vaccine. A complementary experiment ( N = 1,003) leverages this insight to create effective messaging encouraging vaccine take-up. Individual differences in risk preferences moderate responses to messaging that provides benchmarks for vaccine efficacy (by comparing it to the flu vaccine), while messaging that describes pro-social benefits of vaccination (specifically herd immunity) speeds vaccine take-up irrespective of risk preferences. Findings suggest that policy makers should consider risk preferences when targeting vaccine-related communications.

Evaluation of Second- and Third-Level Variance Proportions in Multilevel Designs With Completely Observed Populations: A Note on a Latent Variable Modeling Procedure

2021 ◽  
pp. 001316442110086
Author(s):  
Tenko Raykov ◽  
Natalja Menold ◽  
Jane Leer
Keyword(s):  
Latent Variable ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Present Note ◽  
Interval Estimation ◽  
Psychological Research ◽  
Latent Variable Modeling ◽  
Model Choice ◽  
Modeling Methodology ◽  
Level 3 ◽  
Level 2

Two- and three-level designs in educational and psychological research can involve entire populations of Level-3 and possibly Level-2 units, such as schools and educational districts nested within a given state, or neighborhoods and counties in a state. Such a design is of increasing relevance in empirical research owing to the growing popularity of large-scale studies in these and cognate disciplines. The present note discusses a readily applicable procedure for point-and-interval estimation of the proportions of second- and third-level variances in such multilevel settings, which may also be employed in model choice considerations regarding ensuing analyses for response variables of interest. The method is developed within the framework of the latent variable modeling methodology, is readily utilized with widely used software, and is illustrated with an example.

scholarly journals A Decision Support System for Public Funding of Experimental Development in Energy Research

Energies ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 1357 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon Hirzel ◽  
Tim Hettesheimer ◽  
Peter Viebahn ◽  
Manfred Fischedick
Keyword(s):  
Decision Support ◽  
Decision Support System ◽  
Support System ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Public Funding ◽  
Evaluation Process ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Market Failures ◽  
Energy Research ◽  
Experimental Development

New energy technologies may fail to make the transition to the market once research funding has ended due to a lack of private engagement to conclude their development. Extending public funding to cover such experimental developments could be one way to improve this transition. However, identifying promising research and development (R&D) proposals for this purpose is a difficult task for the following reasons: Close-to-market implementations regularly require substantial resources while public budgets are limited; the allocation of public funds needs to be fair, open, and documented; the evaluation is complex and subject to public sector regulations for public engagement in R&D funding. This calls for a rigorous evaluation process. This paper proposes an operational three-staged decision support system (DSS) to assist decision-makers in public funding institutions in the ex-ante evaluation of R&D proposals for large-scale close-to-market projects in energy research. The system was developed based on a review of literature and related approaches from practice combined with a series of workshops with practitioners from German public funding institutions. The results confirm that the decision-making process is a complex one that is not limited to simply scoring R&D proposals. Decision-makers also have to deal with various additional issues such as determining the state of technological development, verifying market failures or considering existing funding portfolios. The DSS that is suggested in this paper is unique in the sense that it goes beyond mere multi-criteria aggregation procedures and addresses these issues as well to help guide decision-makers in public institutions through the evaluation process.

How “The Three Rules” guide strategy and investment decisions at Deloitte Consulting LLP

2015 ◽  
Vol 43 (3) ◽  
pp. 7-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jim Moffatt
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Research Project ◽  
Content Type ◽  
First Case ◽  
Practical Implications ◽  
Thought Leadership

Purpose – This case example looks at how Deloitte Consulting applies the Three Rules synthesized by Michael Raynor and Mumtaz Ahmed based on their large-scale research project that identified patterns in the way exceptional companies think. Design/methodology/approach – The Three Rules concept is a key piece of Deloitte Consulting’s thought leadership program. So how are the three rules helping the organization perform? Now that research has shown how exceptional companies think, CEO Jim Moffatt could address the question, “Does Deloitte think like an exceptional company?” Findings – Deloitte has had success with an approach that promotes a bias towards non-price value over price and revenue over costs. Practical implications – It’s critical that all decision makers in an organization understand how decisions that are consistent with the three rules have contributed to past success as well as how they can apply the rules to difficult challenges they face today. Originality/value – This is the first case study written from a CEO’s perspective that looks at how the Three Rules approach of Michael Raynor and Mumtaz Ahmed can foster a firm’s growth and exceptional performance.

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