scholarly journals Labor Market Indicator for Colombia (LMI)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Deicy J. Cristiano-Botia ◽  
Manuel Dario Hernandez-Bejarano ◽  
Mario A. Ramos-Veloza
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Labor Market ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Turning Points ◽  
Growth Cycle ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Market Indicator

We construct the Labor Market Indicator (LMI) focusing on the cyclical similarities of eighteen time series from household, industrial, and opinion surveys between 2001 and 2019. The LMI summarizes the growth cycle of the labor market as defined by \cite{mintz} and is connected to the evolution of the traditional business cycle indicators as well as to that of the GDP and the Unemployment rate GAP. The evolution of the indicator provide useful information to policy makers, as it complements the characterization of expansions and turning points. Thus, improving the analysis of the current momentum of the labor market.

scholarly journals Labor Market Indicator for Colombia

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-32
Author(s):  
Deicy J. Cristiano-Botia ◽  
Manuel Dario Hernandez-Bejarano ◽  
Mario A. Ramos-Veloza
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Labor Market ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Growth Cycle ◽  
Current State ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Market Indicator

Although the unemployment rate is traditionally used to diagnose the current state of the labor market, this indicator does not reflect the existence of asymmetries, mobility costs, and rigidities which impede labor to freely flow over the business cycle. Thus, to get a better portrait of the momentum, we construct the Labor Market Indicator (LMI) focusing on the cyclical similarities of eighteen time series from the Colombian household, industrial, and opinion surveys between 2001 and 2019. Our indicator summarizes the growth cycle of the labor market and its evolution is closely related to the output and unemployment GAP. This indicator is useful for policy analysis as it is useful to forecast headline inflation, it also complements the diagnosis of the current momentum of the labor market, the general economic activity, and the characterization of economic phases and turning points.

Dating business cycles in India

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 32-61 ◽  
Author(s):  
Radhika Pandey ◽  
Ila Patnaik ◽  
Ajay Shah
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Turning Points ◽  
Growth Cycle ◽  
Macroeconomic Shocks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Period ◽  
Cyclical Component ◽  
Policy Work ◽  
The Business Cycle

Purpose This paper aims to present a chronology of Indian business cycles in the post-reform period. In India, earlier, macroeconomic shocks were about droughts and oil prices. Economic reforms have led to an interplay of a market economy, financial globalisation and decisions of private firms to undertake investment and hold inventory. This has changed the working of the business cycle and has raised concerns about business-cycle stabilisation. In the backdrop of these developments, the macroeconomics research agenda requires foundations of measurement about business-cycle phenomena. One element of this is the identification of dates of business-cycle turning points. Design/methodology/approach This paper uses the growth-cycle approach to present the chronology of business cycles. The paper uses the Christiano–Fitzgerald (CF) filter to extract the cyclical component and shows the robustness of the findings to the contemporary methods of cycle extraction. It then applies the Bry–Boschan algorithm to identify the dates of peaks and troughs. Findings The paper finds three periods of recession. The first recession was from 1999-Q4 to 2003-Q1; the second recession was from 2007-Q2 to 2009-Q3; and the third recession ran from 2011-Q2 till 2012-Q4. These results are robust to the choice of filter and to the choice of the business-cycle indicator. These dates suggest that, on average, expansions in India are 12 quarters in length and recessions run for 9 quarters. The paper offers evidence of change in the nature of cycles. Originality/value Dates of business-cycle turning points are a critical input for academic and policy work in macroeconomics. The paper offers robust estimation of the business-cycle turning points in the post-reform period using contemporary techniques of cycle extraction. This work helps lay the foundations for downstream macroeconomics research by academicians and policymakers.

A Golden Age? Unemployment and the American Labor Market, 1880–1910

2003 ◽  
Vol 63 (4) ◽  
pp. 959-994 ◽  
Author(s):  
JOHN A. JAMES ◽  
MARK THOMAS
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Estimating Equations ◽  
Contributory Factor ◽  
Unskilled Labor ◽  
Natural Rate ◽  
Natural Rate Of Unemployment ◽  
The 1960S ◽  
American Labor

We calculate the natural rate of unemployment in 1909 by first estimating equations for the incidence and time lost in unemployment on a pooled dataset integrating the manuscript sample of the 1910 census and state BLS surveys and then simulating a counterfactual unemployment rate as if the economy had been on trend that year with business-cycle effects neutralized. Following a similar procedure for the 1960s, we find the natural rate in the earlier period to have been substantially higher. The demise of casual unskilled labor, or floaters, seems to have been an important contributory factor.

scholarly journals Using Advance Layoff Notices as a Labor Market Indicator

1999 ◽  
pp. 1-5 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pawel M. Krolikowski ◽  
Kurt G. Lunsford ◽  
Meifeng Yang
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Unemployment Insurance ◽  
State Government ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
National Level ◽  
Market Conditions ◽  
Labor Market Conditions ◽  
Government Websites ◽  
Market Indicator

We use advance layoff notices filed under the Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act as an indicator of current and imminent labor market conditions. We have constructed a database of establishment-level notices starting in 1990 by scraping state government websites, contacting state officials, and retrieving historical data. We find evidence that these notices, aggregated to the national level, lead other prominent labor market indicators, such as initial unemployment insurance claims, the change in the unemployment rate, and changes in private employment. The lead relationship seems strongest at one month with economically meaningful magnitudes. Most recently, WARN data suggest a slight increase in labor market slack.

scholarly journals Real Wages and the Business Cycle: Accounting for Worker, Firm, and Job Title Heterogeneity

2012 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 133-152 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anabela Carneiro ◽  
Paulo Guimarães ◽  
Pedro Portugal
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Real Wages ◽  
Labor Market Conditions ◽  
Business Cycle Accounting ◽  
Point Increase ◽  
Job Title ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Newly Hired

Using a longitudinal matched employer-employee dataset for Portugal over the 1986–2007 period, this study analyzes the wage responses to aggregate labor market conditions for newly hired workers and existing workers within the same firm. Accounting for worker, firm, and job title heterogeneity, the data support the hypothesis that entry wages are more procyclical than wages of stayers. A one point increase in the unemployment rate decreases wages of newly hired workers within a given firm-job title by around 2.7 percent and by 2.2 percent for stayers within the same firm-job title. Finally, the results reveal a one-for-one wage response to changes in labor productivity. (JEL: E24, E32, J64)

scholarly journals How Much Slack Is in the Labor Market? That Depends on What You Mean by Slack

2014 ◽  
pp. 1-6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Murat Tasci ◽  
Randal f. Verbrugge
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Normal Level ◽  
Additional Labor ◽  
Market Indicator

Estimates of labor market slack can diverge a great deal depending on how slack is defined. We calculate slack using five different concepts that all focus on a single labor market indicator, the unemployment rate. We show that the estimates all provide useful—but different—information. We argue that choosing the best measure of slack depends on the question being asked. If the question is, "Has the unemployment rate reached its new longer-run normal level?" then our answer is, "Almost." But significant uncertainty surrounds the estimates; and others may wish to consider additional labor market indicators.

scholarly journals Forecasting the Romanian Unemployment Rate in Time of Health Crisis—A Univariate vs. Multivariate Time Series Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (21) ◽  
pp. 11165
Author(s):  
Adriana AnaMaria Davidescu ◽  
Simona-Andreea Apostu ◽  
Aurel Marin
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Labor Market ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Social Protection ◽  
Multivariate Time Series ◽  
Healthcare Sector ◽  
Time Series Models ◽  
Market Outcomes ◽  
Health Crisis

Economic crises cause significant shortages in disposable income and a sharp decline in the living conditions, affecting healthcare sector, hitting the profitability and sustainability of companies leading to raises in unemployment. At micro level, these sharp decreases in earnings associated with unemployment and furthermore with the lack of social protection will impact the quality of life and finally the health of individuals. In time of crisis, it becomes vital to support not only the critical sectors of the economy, the assets, technology, and infrastructure, but to protect jobs and workers. This health crisis has hit hard the jobs dynamics through unemployment and underemployment, the quality of work (through wages, or access to social protection), and through the effects on specific groups, with a higher degree of vulnerability to unfavorable labor market outcomes. In this context, providing forecasts as recent as possible for the unemployment rate, a core indicator of the Romanian labor market that could include the effects of the market shocks it becomes fundamental. Thus, the paper aims to offer valuable forecasts for the Romanian unemployment rate using univariate vs. multivariate time series models for the period 2021–2022, highlighting the main patterns of evolution. Based on the univariate time series models, the paper predict the future values of unemployment rate based on its own past using self-forecasting and implementing ARFIMA and SETAR models using monthly data for the period January 2000–April 2021. From the perspective of multivariate time series models, the paper uses VAR/VECM models, analyzing the temporal interdependencies between variables using quarterly data for the period 2000Q1–2020Q4. The empirical results pointed out that both SETAR and VECM provide very similar results in terms of accuracy replicating very well the pre-pandemic period, 2018Q2–2020Q1, reaching the value of 4.1% at the beginning of 2020, with a decreasing trend reaching the value of 3.9%, respectively, 3.6% at the end of 2022.

scholarly journals Labor Market Conditions and Partisan Voting: How Unemployment Hurts the Left

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anton Brännlund
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Social Insurance ◽  
Social Spending ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Market Conditions ◽  
Labor Market Conditions ◽  
The Business Cycle

Abstract Fluctuations in the labor market are a natural part of the business cycle, and they have attracted attention from political scientists for decades. Some scholars argue that left-wing parties benefit from rising rates of unemployment while others claim that voters rally behind conservative parties when the labor market weakens. I argue that the heterogeneous response of voters to a rise in the unemployment rate is due to differences in asset wealth. Put simply, the well-off have less need for social insurance, so they vote for conservative parties in order to put a cap on social spending when the unemployment rate rises; by contrast, asset-less voter opt for the left, with an eye to preserving their entitlements. I show with panel data from Swedish electoral districts that left-wing parties gain an electoral advantage when the local unemployment rate rises in less well-off areas, but they lose support when unemployment rises in wealthier districts.

scholarly journals Turning points identification of growth business cycle in the Czech republic – an alternative approach

2009 ◽  
Vol 57 (3) ◽  
pp. 123-132
Author(s):  
Jitka Poměnková
Keyword(s):  
Czech Republic ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Turning Points ◽  
Regression Function ◽  
Growth Cycle ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Alternative Approach ◽  
Identification Approach ◽  
Nonparametric Estimates ◽  
Nonparametric Statistical

The purpose of the paper is to identify GDP growth cycle of the Czech Republic by means of turning points identification using alternative statistical method – non-parametric kernel estimate. Special type of estimate, convolution Gasser-Müller one, is used. An advantage of this approach is possibility to estimate derivations of unknown function, which is suitable especially in the case of turning points searching.For identification of growth business cycle type results of nonparametric estimate of regression function is used. Obtained residuals, growth component, are considered as growth cycle type and are ana­lo­gi­cal­ly identified. On the basis of nonparametric estimates of growth component derivations (1st and 2nd) turning points (trough and peak) are identified. At the end, comparison of nonparametric statistical approach with economic turning points identification approach, Canova type, is done.

The Empirics of Hidden Labor Force Dynamics in Germany

2017 ◽  
Vol 237 (5) ◽  
pp. 373-406
Author(s):  
Sandro Provenzano
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Labor Force ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Ample Evidence ◽  
Force Dynamics ◽  
Added Worker Effect ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Unexpected Outcomes ◽  
Core Indicator

Abstract The unemployment rate is the core indicator when researchers and policy-makers assess the level of underemployment in an economy. However, accumulating evidence suggests that the unemployment rate is biased and underestimates the true level of underemployment. Closing this gap is especially important because the distortion systematically changes along the business cycle and affects the various subgroups of the population differently. Neglecting these effects when setting up policies might flaw its effectiveness and result in unexpected outcomes. Although the existence of these effects is widely agreed upon only little is known about the magnitude of these effects across various subgroups. Using a highly disaggregated dataset from Germany, this study examines the dynamics in labor force participation that go beyond the unemployment rate. Ample evidence is found that the discouraged and the added worker effect significantly affect particular subgroups in the German labor market. In addition, the discouraged and the added worker effect are generally found to be very symmetric in economic upturns and downturns. Moreover, the labor market reforms in Germany between 2003 and 2005 are found to have reduced the discouraged worker effect on average by 25%, leaving the added worker effect unchanged.

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