Nowcasting global trade in goods and services

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-19
Author(s):  
Fernando Cantú-Bazaldúa

World economic aggregates are compiled infrequently and released after considerable lags. There are, however, many potentially relevant series released in a timely manner and at a higher frequency that could provide significant information about the evolution of global aggregates. The challenge is then to extract the relevant information from this multitude of indicators and combine it to track the real-time evolution of the target variables. We develop a methodology based on dynamic factor models adapted for variables with heterogeneous frequencies, ragged ends and missing data. We apply this methodology to nowcast global trade in goods in goods and services. In addition to monitoring these variables in real time, this method can also be used to obtain short-term forecasts based on the most up-to-date values of the underlying indicators.

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (22) ◽  
pp. 2865
Author(s):  
Jiayi Luo ◽  
Cindy Long Yu

Real-time nowcasting is a process to assess current-quarter GDP from timely released economic and financial series before the figure is disseminated in order to catch the overall macroeconomic conditions in real time. In economic data nowcasting, dynamic factor models (DFMs) are widely used due to their abilities to bridge information with different frequencies and to achieve dimension reduction. However, most of the research using DFMs assumes a fixed known number of factors contributing to GDP nowcasting. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian approach with the horseshoe shrinkage prior to determine the number of factors that have nowcasting power in GDP and to accurately estimate model parameters and latent factors simultaneously. The horseshoe prior is a powerful shrinkage prior in that it can shrink unimportant signals to 0 while keeping important ones remaining large and practically unshrunk. The validity of the method is demonstrated through simulation studies and an empirical study of nowcasting U.S. quarterly GDP growth rates using monthly data series in the U.S. market.


2018 ◽  
Vol 34 (4) ◽  
pp. 598-611 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maximo Camacho ◽  
Gabriel Perez-Quiros ◽  
Pilar Poncela

2020 ◽  
Vol 34 (10) ◽  
pp. 13849-13850
Author(s):  
Donghyeon Lee ◽  
Man-Je Kim ◽  
Chang Wook Ahn

In a real-time strategy (RTS) game, StarCraft II, players need to know the consequences before making a decision in combat. We propose a combat outcome predictor which utilizes terrain information as well as squad information. For training the model, we generated a StarCraft II combat dataset by simulating diverse and large-scale combat situations. The overall accuracy of our model was 89.7%. Our predictor can be integrated into the artificial intelligence agent for RTS games as a short-term decision-making module.


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