Comparative analysis of agent-based and population-based modelling in epidemics and economics1

2012 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 223-255 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tibor Bosse ◽  
S.Waqar Jaffry ◽  
Ghazanfar F. Siddiqui ◽  
Jan Treur
2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 474-491
Author(s):  
G.V. Belekhova

Subject This article deals with the issues of determining the level of financial literacy, identifying problems, and comparing the financial literacy rates of the population of different areas. Objectives The article aims to identify territorial differences in the overall level of financial literacy of the population of the Northwestern Federal District regions and study the prevalence of problems related to the family budget, using financial products, and risk. Methods For the study, we used a sociological survey and an original methodology for indexing the level of financial literacy of the population based on the methodology of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, taking into account the adults' financial competence system proposed by the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation. Results The article determines the level of financial literacy of the Northwestern Federal District population and identifies similar problems for the District's regions. Conclusions A comparative analysis of the components of financial literacy of the four regions reveals the strengths and weaknesses of each of them. This will help adjust financial literacy programmes being implemented in some regions and developed in others.


BMJ ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. n1087
Author(s):  
Santiago Romero-Brufau ◽  
Ayush Chopra ◽  
Alex J Ryu ◽  
Esma Gel ◽  
Ramesh Raskar ◽  
...  

AbstractObjectiveTo estimate population health outcomes with delayed second dose versus standard schedule of SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccination.DesignSimulation agent based modeling study.SettingSimulated population based on real world US county.ParticipantsThe simulation included 100 000 agents, with a representative distribution of demographics and occupations. Networks of contacts were established to simulate potentially infectious interactions though occupation, household, and random interactions.InterventionsSimulation of standard covid-19 vaccination versus delayed second dose vaccination prioritizing the first dose. The simulation runs were replicated 10 times. Sensitivity analyses included first dose vaccine efficacy of 50%, 60%, 70%, 80%, and 90% after day 12 post-vaccination; vaccination rate of 0.1%, 0.3%, and 1% of population per day; assuming the vaccine prevents only symptoms but not asymptomatic spread (that is, non-sterilizing vaccine); and an alternative vaccination strategy that implements delayed second dose for people under 65 years of age, but not until all those above this age have been vaccinated.Main outcome measuresCumulative covid-19 mortality, cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections, and cumulative hospital admissions due to covid-19 over 180 days.ResultsOver all simulation replications, the median cumulative mortality per 100 000 for standard dosing versus delayed second dose was 226 v 179, 233 v 207, and 235 v 236 for 90%, 80%, and 70% first dose efficacy, respectively. The delayed second dose strategy was optimal for vaccine efficacies at or above 80% and vaccination rates at or below 0.3% of the population per day, under both sterilizing and non-sterilizing vaccine assumptions, resulting in absolute cumulative mortality reductions between 26 and 47 per 100 000. The delayed second dose strategy for people under 65 performed consistently well under all vaccination rates tested.ConclusionsA delayed second dose vaccination strategy, at least for people aged under 65, could result in reduced cumulative mortality under certain conditions.


2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (Suppl 1) ◽  
pp. S33 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jin J Zhou ◽  
Wai-Ki Yip ◽  
Michael H Cho ◽  
Dandi Qiao ◽  
Merry-Lynn N McDonald ◽  
...  

Author(s):  
Linna Luo ◽  
Bowen Pang ◽  
Jian Chen ◽  
Yan Li ◽  
Xiaolei Xie

China’s diabetes epidemic is getting worse. People with diabetes in China usually have a lower body weight and a different lifestyle profile compared to their counterparts in the United States (US). More and more evidence show that certain lifestyles can possibly be spread from person to person, leading some to propose considering social influence when establishing preventive policies. This study developed an innovative agent-based model of the diabetes epidemic for the Chinese population. Based on the risk factors and related complications of diabetes, the model captured individual health progression, quantitatively described the peer influence of certain lifestyles, and projected population health outcomes over a specific time period. We simulated several hypothetical interventions (i.e., improving diet, controlling smoking, improving physical activity) and assessed their impact on diabetes rates. We validated the model by comparing simulation results with external datasets. Our results showed that improving physical activity could result in the most significant decrease in diabetes prevalence compared to improving diet and controlling smoking. Our model can be used to inform policymakers on how the diabetes epidemic develops and help them compare different diabetes prevention programs in practice.


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