Using the Weibull distribution to model COVID-19 epidemic data

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 5-14
Author(s):  
Vitor Hugo Moreau
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Weibull Distribution ◽  
Initial Phase ◽  
Public Health Emergency ◽  
Protective Equipment ◽  
Slowing Down ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Model Predictions ◽  
Disease Epidemics ◽  
Vaccination Campaigns

COVID-19 is a severe acute respiratory syndrome caused by the new Coronavirus. COVID-19 outbreak is a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, declared by WHO, that killed more than 2 million people worldwide. Since there are no specific drugs available and vaccination campaigns are in the initial phase, or even have not begun in some countries, the main way to fight the outbreak worldwide is still based on non-pharmacological strategies, such as the use of protective equipment, social isolation and mass testing. Modeling of the disease epidemics have gained pivotal importance to guide health authorities on the decision making and applying of those strategies. Here, we present the use of the Weibull distribution to model predictions of the COVID-19 outbreak based on daily new cases and deaths data, by non-linear regression using Metropolis-Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations. It was possible to predict the evolution of daily new cases and deaths of COVID-19 in many countries as well as the overall number of cases and deaths in the future. Modeling predictions of COVID-19 pandemic may be of importance on the evaluation of governments and health authorities mitigation procedures, since it allows one to extract parameters that may help to guide those decisions and measures, slowing down the spread of the disease.

Impact of Clinician Personal Protective Equipment on Medical Device Use During Public Health Emergency: A Review

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 273-283 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hanniebey D. Wiyor ◽  
James C. Coburn ◽  
Karen L. Siegel
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Medical Device ◽  
Personal Protective Equipment ◽  
Clinical Training ◽  
Public Health Emergency ◽  
Protective Equipment ◽  
Clinical Procedures ◽  
Public Health Emergency Response ◽  
Device Use ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACTThe aim of this systematic review is to evaluate the impact of personal protective equipment (PPE) on medical device use during public health emergency responses. We conducted a systematic literature search of peer-reviewed journals in PubMed, Web of Science, and EBSCO databases. Twenty-nine of 92 articles published between 1984 and 2015 met the inclusion criteria for the review. Although many medical device use impacts were reported, they predominantly fell into 3 categories: airway management, drug administration, and diagnostics and monitoring. Chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN)-PPE increased completion times for emergency clinical procedures by as much as 130% and first attempt failure rates by 35% (anesthetist) versus 55% (non-anesthetist). Effects of CBRN-PPE use depend on device, CBRN-PPE level, and clinician experience and training. Continuous clinical training of responders in CBRN-PPE and device modifications can improve safety and effectiveness of medical device use during public health emergency response.

Personal Protective Equipment Supply Chain: Lessons Learned from Recent Public Health Emergency Responses

2017 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 244-252 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anita Patel ◽  
Maryann M. D'Alessandro ◽  
Karen J. Ireland ◽  
W. Greg Burel ◽  
Elaine B. Wencil ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Supply Chain ◽  
Personal Protective Equipment ◽  
Public Health Emergency ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Protective Equipment ◽  
Emergency Responses

Precautions and Recommendations for Dental Care During the COVID-19 Pandemic

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-43
Author(s):  
Téssia Melo ◽  
◽  
Poliana Costa ◽  
Rafaela Medeiros ◽  
Jorge Araújo-Filho ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Clinical Practice ◽  
Dental Care ◽  
Personal Protective Equipment ◽  
Health Professionals ◽  
Public Health Emergency ◽  
Protective Equipment ◽  
International Public Health ◽  
Dental Offices ◽  
Need For Information

The COVID-19 disease pandemic, caused by the new Coronavirus (SARS-COV-2) that originated in Wuhan, China, is an international public health emergency. This disease represents a major challenge for all health professionals, including dentists and their staff. This moment has significantly changed the attendance and routine of dental offices, so there is a great need for information and the development of protocols for the guidance of professionals. This paper aims to systematize the recommendations for dentists’ clinical practice on biosafety and the use of Personal Protective Equipment (PPE), seeking to optimize dental care during the COVID-19 pandemic.

scholarly journals An interim review of the epidemiological characteristics of 2019 novel coronavirus

2020 ◽  
Vol 42 ◽  
pp. e2020006 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sukhyun Ryu ◽  
Byung Chul Chun
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Public Health Emergency ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Public Health Authorities ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Epidemiological Characteristics

OBJECTIVES: The 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) from Wuhan, China is currently recognized as a public health emergency of global concern.METHODS: We reviewed the currently available literature to provide up-to-date guidance on control measures to be implemented by public health authorities.RESULTS: Some of the epidemiological characteristics of 2019-nCoV have been identified. However, there remain considerable uncertainties, which should be considered when providing guidance to public health authorities on control measures.CONCLUSIONS: Additional studies incorporating more detailed information from confirmed cases would be valuable.

scholarly journals Forecast predictions for the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil by statistical modeling using the Weibull distribution for daily new cases and deaths

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vitor Hugo Moreau
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Weibull Distribution ◽  
Statistical Modeling ◽  
Personal Protective Equipment ◽  
Educational Level ◽  
Protective Equipment ◽  
Preventive Strategies ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Total Death ◽  
The Mean

Abstract COVID-19 has killed more than 330.000 people worldwide and more than 21,000 Brazilians. Since there are no specific drugs or vaccines, the available tools against COVID-19 are preventive, such as the use of personal protective equipment, social distancing, lockdowns and mass testing. Such measures are hindered in Brazil due to a restrict budget, low educational level of the population and misleading attitudes from the federal authorities. Predictions for COVID-19 are of pivotal importance to subsidize and mobilize health authorities’ efforts in applying the necessary preventive strategies. The Weibull distribution was used to model the forecast prediction of COVID-19, in four scenarios, based on the curve of daily new deaths as a function of time. The date in which the number of daily new deaths will fall below the rate of 3 deaths per million, the mean level considered by some countries to relax stay-at-home measures, was estimated. If the daily new deaths curve was bended today (i. e. about 1,250 deaths per day), the predicted date would be on June 18th. Analysis of the lethality rate allowed the estimation of daily new cases and total death toll at the end of the outbreak. Our results suggest that each additional day that lasts to bend the daily new deaths curve can correspond to additional 3,718 deaths at the end of COVID-19 outbreak in Brazil (R2 = 0.9938). Predictions of the outbreak can be used to guide Brazilian health authorities in the decision making to properly fight COVID-19 pandemic.

scholarly journals Case of COVID-19 in a 5-week-old baby

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. e236330
Author(s):  
Rachael Fleming ◽  
Rosemary Grattan ◽  
Kristyna Bohmova
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Personal Protective Equipment ◽  
Adult Population ◽  
Paediatric Population ◽  
Public Health Emergency ◽  
Full Recovery ◽  
Protective Equipment ◽  
Paediatric Patients ◽  
First Case ◽  
Work Up

On 31 December 2019, the first case of COVID-19, was reported in Wuhan. A public health emergency of international concern was declared on 30 January 2020 and the first case in Scotland, on 2 March. The effect of COVID-19 appears to be less in the paediatric population and there are fewer cases reported in the literature in comparison to the adult population. Here, we report a case of a previously well 5-week-old infant who presented with fever and increased sleepiness. There was no known contact with any unwell individuals. COVID-19 was identified through a septic screen work up. The infant’s course was uneventful and she has made a full recovery. This case highlights the need to have a low index of suspicion in the diagnosis of COVID-19 and the need to be vigilant in use of personal protective equipment, even in paediatric patients with subtle symptoms.

scholarly journals The “War” Against Covid-19: State of Exception, State of Siege, or (Constitutional) Emergency Powers?: The Italian Case in Comparative Perspective

2021 ◽  
Vol 22 (6) ◽  
pp. 1060-1071
Author(s):  
Claudio Corradetti ◽  
Oreste Pollicino
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Initial Phase ◽  
Public Health Emergency ◽  
The Self ◽  
Comparative Perspective ◽  
State Of Exception ◽  
Constitutional Rights ◽  
Power Structures ◽  
Italian Case ◽  
Emergency Powers

AbstractIs the Covid-19 pandemic changing the constitutional-power structures of our democracies? Is this centennial public health emergency irreversibly constraining our liberties? The paper examines recent state-measures of containment during the initial phase of spread of the Covid-19 crisis. It compares primarily the Italian scenario with the Chinese and the American one. It asks whether the measures adopted particularly in the Italian case (known as DPCMs) amount to a state of exception or to a use of emergency powers. Cognizant of the authoritarian risks in severed enjoyments of constitutional rights, the authors conclude that this is not what occurred in the case of solid democracies. At the level of governmental analysis, the “decree” strategy of the Italian DPCMs allude to paternalistic forms of power-exercise that empty the self-determining prerogative of the parliament.

scholarly journals The importance of sustained compliance with physical distancing during COVID-19 vaccination rollout

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandra Teslya ◽  
Ganna Rozhnova ◽  
Thi Mui Pham ◽  
Daphne A van Wees ◽  
Hendrik Nunner ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Vaccination Coverage ◽  
Vaccine Coverage ◽  
Vaccine Uptake ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Contact Rates ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Public Health Authorities ◽  
Vaccination Campaigns

Mass vaccination campaigns against SARS-CoV-2 are ongoing in many countries with increasing vaccination coverage enabling relaxation of lockdowns. Vaccination rollout is frequently supplemented with advisory from public health authorities for continuation of physical distancing measures. Compliance with these measures is waning while more transmissible virus variants such as Alpha (B.1.1.7) and Delta (B.1.617.2) have emerged. In this work, we considered a population where the waning of compliance depends on vaccine coverage. We used a SARS-CoV-2 transmission model which captures the feedback between compliance, infection incidence, and vaccination coverage to investigate factors that contribute to the increase of the prevalence of infection during the initial stages of the vaccination rollout as compared to no vaccination scenario. We analysed how the vaccine uptake rate affects cumulative numbers of new infections three and six months after the start of vaccination. Our results suggest that the combination of fast waning compliance in non-vaccinated population, low compliance in vaccinated population and more transmissible virus variants may result in a higher cumulative number of new infections than in a situation without vaccination. These adverse effects can be alleviated if vaccinated individuals do not revert to pre-pandemic contact rates, and if non-vaccinated individuals remain compliant with physical distancing measures. Both require convincing, clear and appropriately targeted communication strategies by public health authorities.

scholarly journals Lessons learned from ramping up a Canadian Take Home Naloxone programme during a public health emergency: a mixed-methods study

BMJ Open ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (10) ◽  
pp. e030046 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sympascho Young ◽  
Sierra Williams ◽  
Michael Otterstatter ◽  
Jennifer Lee ◽  
Jane Buxton
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Mixed Methods ◽  
Public Health Emergency ◽  
Mixed Methods Study ◽  
Rural Site ◽  
Secondary Outcome ◽  
Regional Health ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Regional Health Authorities ◽  
Overdose Deaths

ObjectivesThis study describes the 2016 expansion of the British Columbia Take Home Naloxone (BCTHN) programme quantitatively and explores the challenges, facilitators and successes during the ramp up from the perspectives of programme stakeholders.DesignMixed-methods study.SettingThe BCTHN programme was implemented in 2012 to reduce opioid overdose deaths by providing naloxone kits and overdose recognition and response training in BC, Canada. An increase in the number of overdose deaths in 2016 in BC led to the declaration of a public health emergency and a rapid ramp up of naloxone kit production and distribution. BCTHN distributes naloxone to the five regional health authorities of BC.ParticipantsFocus groups and key informant interviews were conducted with 18 stakeholders, including BC Centre for Disease Control staff, urban and rural site coordinators, and harm reduction coordinators from the five regional health authorities across BC.Primary and secondary outcome measuresTake Home Naloxone (THN) programme activity, qualitative themes and lessons learnt were identified.ResultsIn 2016, BCTHN responded to a 20-fold increase in demand of naloxone kits and added over 300 distribution sites. Weekly numbers of overdose events and overdose deaths were correlated with increases in THN kits ordered the following week, during 2013–2017. Challenges elicited include forecasting demand, operational logistics, financial, manpower and policy constraints. Facilitators included outsourcing kit production, implementing standing orders and policy changes in naloxone scheduling, which allowed for easier hiring of staff, reduced paperwork and expanded client access.ConclusionFor THN programmes preparing for potential increases in naloxone demand, we recommend creating an online database, implementing standing orders and developing online training resources for standardised knowledge translation to site staff and clients.

scholarly journals Coronavirus (CoV) Infection: The Pandemic Public Health Issue

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (11) ◽  
pp. 349-351
Author(s):  
Mehak Sharma
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
General Information ◽  
Public Health Emergency ◽  
Biopsy Sample ◽  
Health Issue ◽  
Public Health Issue ◽  
Pathological Findings ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Recent Outbreak ◽  
Coronavirus Infection

The headlines hitting the news worldwide are talking about the recent outbreak of the coronavirus infection (COVID-19) that started as an epidemic in China by the end of year 2019 and became a public health emergency after a pandemic spread within a span of few weeks. With no curative measure in hand, this ailment is killing victims at the rate of almost 2% of the affected ones. This review focuses on general information regarding coronavirus, pathological findings from biopsy sample of a previously published case and the standard preventive recommendations prescribed by various researchers and health authorities.

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