Smooth transition modelling: Empirical investigation of logistic and exponential transition functions

2008 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 43-57
Author(s):  
D.K. Shangodoyin ◽  
O.A. Adebile ◽  
R. Arnab
Author(s):  
Day Yang Liu ◽  
Ming Chen Chun ◽  
Yi Kai Su

This rapid propagation of the Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) has caused the global healthcare system to break down. The infectious disease originated from East Asia and spread to the world. This unprecedented pandemic further damages the global economy. It seems highly probable that the COVID-19 recession changes stock market volatility. Therefore, this study resorts to the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) model with a smooth transition method to capture the influences of the COVID-19 pandemic on the dynamic structure of the stock market index volatilities for some Asian countries (the Four Asian Tigers and Japan). The empirical results show that the shocks of the COVID-19 change the dynamic volatility structure for all stock market indices. Moreover, we acquire the transition function for all stock market index volatilities and find out that most of their regime adjustment processes start following the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Four Asian Tigers except South Korea and Japan. Additionally, the estimated transition functions show that the stock market index volatilities contain U-shaped patterns of structural changes. This article also computes the corresponding calendar dates of structure change about dynamic volatility patterns. In the light of estimation of location parameters, we demonstrate that the structure changing the date of stock market index volatility for South Korea and Japan has occurred in late 2019.


2015 ◽  
Vol 37 (4) ◽  
pp. 537-557
Author(s):  
Terence C. Mills ◽  
Kerry Patterson

In an almost unreferenced article, Fitzhugh Carmichael (1928), writing of the period around the First World War, noted that “during the past twelve years many economic series have undergone what appears to be a permanent change in level.” These are prescient words that are widely applicable today. Carmichael noted that the then-standard practice of linear detrending was inappropriate in the presence of what we would now call “structural breaks”; as a result he proposed a method that would not only model a nonlinear trend, but would be suitable for situations where the transition from one regime to another was smooth. This study establishes the precedence of Carmichael’s ideas, re-examines his methods, and solves the problems that he thought would hinder wider applications of his approach, which has since become a central part of contemporary nonlinear econometric methods and for which Carmichael should be given credit.


1979 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 82-86
Author(s):  
Karen Friedel ◽  
Jo-Ida Hansen ◽  
Thomas J. Hummel ◽  
Warren F. Shaffer

Crisis ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 106-112 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher M. Bloom ◽  
Shareen Holly ◽  
Adam M. P. Miller

Background: Historically, the field of self-injury has distinguished between the behaviors exhibited among individuals with a developmental disability (self-injurious behaviors; SIB) and those present within a normative population (nonsuicidal self-injury; NSSI),which typically result as a response to perceived stress. More recently, however, conclusions about NSSI have been drawn from lines of animal research aimed at examining the neurobiological mechanisms of SIB. Despite some functional similarity between SIB and NSSI, no empirical investigation has provided precedent for the application of SIB-targeted animal research as justification for pharmacological interventions in populations demonstrating NSSI. Aims: The present study examined this question directly, by simulating an animal model of SIB in rodents injected with pemoline and systematically manipulating stress conditions in order to monitor rates of self-injury. Methods: Sham controls and experimental animals injected with pemoline (200 mg/kg) were assigned to either a low stress (discriminated positive reinforcement) or high stress (discriminated avoidance) group and compared on the dependent measures of self-inflicted injury prevalence and severity. Results: The manipulation of stress conditions did not impact the rate of self-injury demonstrated by the rats. The results do not support a model of stress-induced SIB in rodents. Conclusions: Current findings provide evidence for caution in the development of pharmacotherapies of NSSI in human populations based on CNS stimulant models. Theoretical implications are discussed with respect to antecedent factors such as preinjury arousal level and environmental stress.


2006 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robyn J. Geelhoed ◽  
Julia C. Phillips ◽  
Ann R. Fischer ◽  
Elaine Shpungin ◽  
Younnjung Gong

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