Maximum likelihood estimation for uncertain autoregressive model with application to carbon dioxide emissions

2021 ◽  
Vol 40 (1) ◽  
pp. 1391-1399
Author(s):  
Dan Chen ◽  
Xiangfeng Yang
Keyword(s):  
Maximum Likelihood ◽  
Autoregressive Model ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Emissions ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Likelihood Estimation ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
Unknown Parameters ◽  
Uncertain Variables

The objective of uncertain time series analysis is to explore the relationship between the imprecise observation data over time and to predict future values, where these data are uncertain variables in the sense of uncertainty theory. In this paper, the method of maximum likelihood is used to estimate the unknown parameters in the uncertain autoregressive model, and the unknown parameters of uncertainty distributions of the disturbance terms are simultaneously obtained. Based on the fitted autoregressive model, the forecast value and confidence interval of the future data are derived. Besides, the mean squared error is proposed to measure the goodness of fit among different estimation methods, and an algorithm is introduced. Finally, the comparative analysis of the least squares, least absolute deviations, and maximum likelihood estimations are given, and two examples are presented to verify the feasibility of this approach.

scholarly journals A New Inverted Topp-Leone Distribution: Applications to the COVID-19 Mortality Rate in Two Different Countries

Axioms ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 25 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ehab Almetwally ◽  
Randa Alharbi ◽  
Dalia Alnagar ◽  
Eslam Hafez
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Model ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Weighted Least Squares ◽  
Likelihood Estimation ◽  
Linear Representation ◽  
Rate Function ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Unknown Parameters ◽  
Least Squares Estimators ◽  
New Distribution

This paper aims to find a statistical model for the COVID-19 spread in the United Kingdom and Canada. We used an efficient and superior model for fitting the COVID 19 mortality rates in these countries by specifying an optimal statistical model. A new lifetime distribution with two-parameter is introduced by a combination of inverted Topp-Leone distribution and modified Kies family to produce the modified Kies inverted Topp-Leone (MKITL) distribution, which covers a lot of application that both the traditional inverted Topp-Leone and the modified Kies provide poor fitting for them. This new distribution has many valuable properties as simple linear representation, hazard rate function, and moment function. We made several methods of estimations as maximum likelihood estimation, least squares estimators, weighted least-squares estimators, maximum product spacing, Crame´r-von Mises estimators, and Anderson-Darling estimators methods are applied to estimate the unknown parameters of MKITL distribution. A numerical result of the Monte Carlo simulation is obtained to assess the use of estimation methods. also, we applied different data sets to the new distribution to assess its performance in modeling data.

scholarly journals New class of Lindley distributions: properties and applications

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Duha Hamed ◽  
Ahmad Alzaghal
Keyword(s):  
Maximum Likelihood ◽  
Maximum Likelihood Estimation ◽  
Simulation Study ◽  
Likelihood Estimation ◽  
Statistical Properties ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Lifetime Data ◽  
Unknown Parameters ◽  
Lindley Distribution ◽  
New Class

AbstractA new generalized class of Lindley distribution is introduced in this paper. This new class is called the T-Lindley{Y} class of distributions, and it is generated by using the quantile functions of uniform, exponential, Weibull, log-logistic, logistic and Cauchy distributions. The statistical properties including the modes, moments and Shannon’s entropy are discussed. Three new generalized Lindley distributions are investigated in more details. For estimating the unknown parameters, the maximum likelihood estimation has been used and a simulation study was carried out. Lastly, the usefulness of this new proposed class in fitting lifetime data is illustrated using four different data sets. In the application section, the strength of members of the T-Lindley{Y} class in modeling both unimodal as well as bimodal data sets is presented. A member of the T-Lindley{Y} class of distributions outperformed other known distributions in modeling unimodal and bimodal lifetime data sets.

scholarly journals Maximum Product of Spacing Parameter Estimation of Gompertz Rayleigh Distribution and Application to Rainfall Datasets

2021 ◽  
pp. 41-59
Author(s):  
Hussein Ahmad Abdulsalam ◽  
Sule Omeiza Bashiru ◽  
Alhaji Modu Isa ◽  
Yunusa Adavi Ojirobe
Keyword(s):  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Likelihood Estimation ◽  
Statistical Properties ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Unknown Parameters ◽  
Exponentiated Weibull ◽  
Integrated Hazard

Gompertz Rayleigh (GomR) distribution was introduced in an earlier study with few statistical properties derived and parameters estimated using only the most common traditional method, Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE). This paper aimed at deriving more statistical properties of the GomR distribution, estimating the three unknown parameters via a competitive method, Maximum Product of Spacing (MPS) and evaluating goodness of fit using rainfall data sets from Nigeria, Malaysia and Argentina. Properties of statistical distributions including distribution of smallest and largest order statistics, cumulative or integrated hazard function, odds function, rth non-central moments, moment generating function, mean, variance and entropy measures for GomR distribution were explicitly derived. The fitted data sets reveal the flexibility of GomR distribution over other distributions been compared with. Simulation study was used to evaluate the consistency, accuracy and unbiasedness of the GomR distribution parameter estimates obtained from the method of MPS. The study found that GomR distribution could not provide a better fit for Argentine rainfall data but it was the best distribution for the rainfall data sets from Nigeria and Malaysia in comparison with the distributions; Generalized Weibull Rayleigh (GWR), Exponentiated Weibull Rayleigh (EWR), Type (II) Topp Leone Generalized Inverse Rayleigh (TIITLGIR), Kumarawamy Exponential Inverse Raylrigh (KEIR), Negative Binomial Marshall-Olkin Rayleigh (NBMOR) and Exponentiated Weibull (EW). Furthermore, the estimates from MPSE were consistent as the sample size increases but not as efficient as those from MLE.

Jaya algorithm in estimation of P[X > Y] for two parameter Weibull distribution

2022 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 2820-2839
Author(s):  
Saurabh L. Raikar ◽  
◽  
Dr. Rajesh S. Prabhu Gaonkar ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Maximum Likelihood ◽  
Maximum Likelihood Estimation ◽  
Weibull Distribution ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Weighted Least Squares ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Likelihood Estimation ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Jaya Algorithm ◽  
Two Parameter

<abstract> <p>Jaya algorithm is a highly effective recent metaheuristic technique. This article presents a simple, precise, and faster method to estimate stress strength reliability for a two-parameter, Weibull distribution with common scale parameters but different shape parameters. The three most widely used estimation methods, namely the maximum likelihood estimation, least squares, and weighted least squares have been used, and their comparative analysis in estimating reliability has been presented. The simulation studies are carried out with different parameters and sample sizes to validate the proposed methodology. The technique is also applied to real-life data to demonstrate its implementation. The results show that the proposed methodology's reliability estimates are close to the actual values and proceeds closer as the sample size increases for all estimation methods. Jaya algorithm with maximum likelihood estimation outperforms the other methods regarding the bias and mean squared error.</p> </abstract>

An Additive NHPP-Based Reliability Model of Wireless Sensor Networks

2014 ◽  
Vol 602-605 ◽  
pp. 3206-3212
Author(s):  
Bo Zhao ◽  
Jian Feng Yang ◽  
Ming Zhao ◽  
Qi Li ◽  
Yan Liu
Keyword(s):  
Wireless Sensor Networks ◽  
Sensor Networks ◽  
Maximum Likelihood ◽  
Likelihood Estimation ◽  
Wireless Sensor ◽  
Reliability Model ◽  
Unknown Parameters ◽  
Failure Data ◽  
Better Than

As the Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) are widely implemented in various fields recent years, the quality of WSNs has been increasingly concerned. WSNs can usually be divided into sub-nets, which assumed to work or fail independently. Through the failure data of those sub-nets, the additive NHPP model for reliability evaluation is composed, and then the maximum likelihood estimation is applied to estimate the unknown parameters in the model. Finally, the simulation shows that the additive NHPP model is better than general NHPP model under certain circumstances.

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