Estimation of Past and Future Mass Balance of Glaciers of Sikkim Himalaya using Energy Balance Modelling Approach and Regional Climatic Projections

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 35-43
Author(s):  
Anubha Aggarwal ◽  
Anubha Mandal
Keyword(s):  
Energy Balance ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Sikkim Himalaya ◽  
Average Mass ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Himalayan Glaciers ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Far Future ◽  
Modelling Approach

In this study, the mass balance of Sikkim Himalayan glaciers is computed by the energy balance modeling approach using REMO and APHRODITE data. According to the present work, the glaciers show a mass balance of ~0, +0.31 and –0.32 m w. e. yr–1 for time periods 1981-1990, 1991-2000 and 2001-2005. To investigate the possible changes in the near future (2006-2049) and far future (2070-2099), REMO data under different representation concentration pathway scenarios 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 are also analysed. For the time period 2006–2100, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 give an average mass balance of -0.75 m w. e. yr–1, -1.04 m w. e. yr–1 and -1.4 m w. e. yr–1, respectively. The results are comparable to other studies. This study is one of the few studies carried out to estimate the mass balance of glaciers using only climate model data.

scholarly journals Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrological Regimes in Bavaria

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 1599 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin Poschlod ◽  
Florian Willkofer ◽  
Ralf Ludwig
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Emission Scenario ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Hierarchical Cluster ◽  
Reference Period ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Monthly Discharge ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Far Future

This study assesses the change of the seasonal runoff characteristics in 98 catchments in central Europe between the reference period of 1981–2010, and in the near future (2011–2040), mid future (2041–2070) and far future (2071–2099). Therefore, a large ensemble of 50 hydrological simulations featuring the model WaSiM-ETH driven by a 50-member ensemble of the Canadian Regional Climate Model, version 5 (CRCM5) under the emission scenario Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5) is analyzed. A hierarchical cluster analysis is applied to group the runoff characteristics into six flow regime classes. In the study area, (glacio-)nival, nival (transition), nivo-pluvial and three different pluvial classes are identified. We find that the characteristics of all six regime groups are severely affected by climate change in terms of the amplitude and timing of the monthly peaks and sinks. According to our simulations, the monthly peak of nival regimes will occur earlier in the season and the relative importance of rainfall increases towards the future. Pluvial regimes will become less balanced with higher normalized monthly discharge during January to March and a strong decrease during May to October. In comparison to the reference period, 8% of catchments will shift to another regime class until 2011–2040, whereas until 2041–2070 and 2071–2099, 23% and 43% will shift to another class, respectively.

scholarly journals Seasonal changes in surface albedo of Himalayan glaciers from MODIS data and links with the annual mass balance

2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 3437-3474 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Brun ◽  
M. Dumont ◽  
P. Wagnon ◽  
E. Berthier ◽  
M. F. Azam ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Seasonal Changes ◽  
Surface Albedo ◽  
Remote Sensing Data ◽  
Mountain Range ◽  
Equilibrium Line Altitude ◽  
Monsoon Period ◽  
Chhota Shigri Glacier ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Himalayan Glaciers

Abstract. Few glaciological field data are available on glaciers in the Hindu Kush – Karakoram – Himalaya (HKH) region, and remote sensing data are thus critical for glacier studies in this region. The main objectives of this study are to document, using satellite images, the seasonal changes of surface albedo for two Himalayan glaciers, Chhota Shigri Glacier (Himachal Pradesh, India) and Mera Glacier (Everest region, Nepal), and to reconstruct the annual mass balance of these glaciers based on the albedo data. Albedo is retrieved from MODerate Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) images, and evaluated using ground based measurements. At both sites, we find high coefficients of determination between annual minimum albedo averaged over the glacier (AMAAG) and glacier-wide annual mass balance (Ba) measured with the glaciological method (R2 = 0.75). At Chhota Shigri Glacier, the relation between AMAAG found at the end of the ablation season and Ba suggests that AMAAG can be used as a proxy for the maximum snowline altitude or equilibrium line altitude (ELA) on winter accumulation-type glaciers in the Himalayas. However, for the summer-accumulation type Mera Glacier our approach relied on the hypothesis that ELA information, mostly not accessible from space during the monsoon, was still preserved later thanks to strong winter winds blowing away snow and in turn exposing again the late monsoon surface. AMAAG was subsequently revealed in the post-monsoon period. Reconstructed Ba at Chhota Shigri Glacier agrees with mass balances previously reconstructed using a positive degree-day method. Reconstructed Ba at Mera Glacier is affected by heavy cloud cover during the monsoon, which systematically limited our ability to observe AMAAG at the end of the melting period. In addition, the relation between AMAAG and Ba is constrained over a shorter time period for Mera Glacier (6 years) than for Chhota Shigri Glacier (11 years). Thus the mass balance reconstruction is less robust for Mera Glacier than for Chhota Shigri Glacier. However our method shows promising results and may be used to reconstruct the annual mass balance of glaciers with contrasted seasonal cycles in the western part of the HKH mountain range since the early 2000s when MODIS images became available.

scholarly journals Climate Projections for South America: RegCM3 Driven by HadCM3 and ECHAM5

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-17 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michelle Simões Reboita ◽  
Rosmeri Porfírio da Rocha ◽  
Cássia Gabriele Dias ◽  
Rita Yuri Ynoue
Keyword(s):  
South America ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
South American ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Increase ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Far Future

This study shows climate projections of air temperature and precipitation over South America (SA) from the Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3) nested in ECHAM5 and HadCM3 global models. The projections consider the A1B scenario from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and three time-slices: present (1960–1990), near- (2010–2040), and far-future (2070–2100) climates. In the future, RegCM3 projections indicate general warming throughout all SA and seasons, which is more pronounced in the far-future period. In this late period the RegCM3 projections indicate that the negative trend of precipitation over northern SA is also higher. In addition, a precipitation increase over southeastern SA is projected, mainly during summer and spring. The lifecycle of the South American monsoon (SAM) was also investigated in the present and future climates. In the near-future, the projections show a slight delay (one pentad) of the beginning of the rainy season, resulting in a small reduction of the SAM length. In the far-future, there is no agreement between projections related to the SAM features.

scholarly journals Analysis of Cooling and Heating Degree Days over Mexico in Present and Future Climate

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 1131
Author(s):  
Arturo Corrales-Suastegui ◽  
Osias Ruiz-Alvarez ◽  
José Abraham Torres-Alavez ◽  
Edgar G. Pavia
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Degree Days ◽  
Heating And Cooling ◽  
Heating Degree Days ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Far Future

One simple way to estimate the relationship between air temperature and the energy needed for heating and cooling is to use the concept of degree day. Cooling degree days (CDD) and heating degree days (HDD) are indicators of the energy required to reach comfort levels and are related directly to energy demands. Therefore, using a novel approach, we examine the current conditions and future projections in degree days over Mexico using observations (Livneh and CPC), ERA5 reanalysis, and simulations from the Regional Climate Model (RegCM4). The RegCM4 experiments were driven by different General Circulation Models for two Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios. We consider three 20-year periods as “present conditions” (1995–2014), “near-future conditions” (2041–2060), and “far-future conditions” (2080–2099). The results suggest that in the future, under the lowest radiative forcing scenario there will be a smaller increase (decrease) in CDD (HDD) for the far-future, as compared to the near-future. This could represent the model’s response to the peak of radiative forcing at mid-century and its subsequent decline. For the highest radiative forcing scenario, we found a greater increase (decrease) in CDD (HDD) for the far-future, which could be explained by the response of the RegCM4 to the warming increase projected for 2100.

scholarly journals Simulating melt, runoff and refreezing on Nordenskiöldbreen, Svalbard, using a coupled snow and energy balance model

2012 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 641-659 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. J. J. van Pelt ◽  
J. Oerlemans ◽  
C. H. Reijmer ◽  
V. A. Pohjola ◽  
R. Pettersson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Energy Balance ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Energy Balance Model ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Equilibrium Line Altitude ◽  
Mass Budget ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. A distributed energy balance model is coupled to a multi-layer snow model in order to study the mass balance evolution and the impact of refreezing on the mass budget of Nordenskiöldbreen, Svalbard. The model is forced with output from the regional climate model RACMO and meteorological data from Svalbard Airport. Extensive calibration and initialisation are performed to increase the model accuracy. For the period 1989–2010, we find a mean net mass balance of −0.39 m w.e. a−1. Refreezing contributes on average 0.27 m w.e. a−1 to the mass budget and is most pronounced in the accumulation zone. The simulated mass balance, radiative fluxes and subsurface profiles are validated against observations and are generally in good agreement. Climate sensitivity experiments reveal a non-linear, seasonally dependent response of the mass balance, refreezing and runoff to changes in temperature and precipitation. It is shown that including seasonality in climate change, with less pronounced summer warming, reduces the sensitivity of the mass balance and equilibrium line altitude (ELA) estimates in a future climate. The amount of refreezing is shown to be rather insensitive to changes in climate.

scholarly journals ESTIMATION OF HYDRO-METEOROLOGICAL EXTREMES IN BEAS BASIN OVER HISTORIC, PRESENT AND FUTURE SCENARIO

2020 ◽  
Vol XLIII-B5-2020 ◽  
pp. 139-147
Author(s):  
V. Sharma ◽  
B. R. Nikam ◽  
P. K. Thakur ◽  
V. Garg ◽  
S. P. Aggarwal ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Future Time ◽  
Future Period ◽  
Flood Peak ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Future Time Period ◽  
The Future ◽  
Model Efficiency ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Far Future

Abstract. The North West Himalayan basins have always been prone to hydro-meteorological disasters. Among them Beas Basin is one of the highly affected basins. Beas basin is prone to cloudburst which causes huge loss to life and property every year. Increase in these devastating events have been noticed in the recent years. Climatic change is considered as the major driver for this increased occurrence of these events in the recent past. The analysis of long-term hydrological extremes over the basin will help in understanding the pattern of the hydro-meteorological extremes and also predicting its nature in near and far future. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model at the grid size of 0.025° × 0.025° has been used in the present study, for simulating the hydrological behaviour of the Beas Basin. The parameterization of the model inputs is derived from Remote Sensing based and field observed datasets. The model was forced with meteorological dataset of ERA-Interim for the past and present time period and CORDEX dataset for the future time period. The model was calibrated using observed discharge data of Nadaun and Sujanpur stations. The Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency of calibrated model was achieved to be 0.77 and 0.72 and coefficient of determination (R2) was 0.80 and 0.72, respectively. The validation results of the model for the same stations shows the model efficiency to be 0.73 and 0.74 with coefficient of determination (R2) as 0.67 and 0.82, respectively. The well calibrated model was used to simulate the hydrological behaviour of historic period (1979–2000), present period (2001–2017), near future period (2018–2050) and far future period (2051–2099). The exceedance probability curve method has been utilized in estimating the flood peak value for the future time period. The flood peak discharge value for the future time period comes out to be 1050 m3/s. The hydro-meteorological extremes rate per year in each period was found to be 9, 9, 12 and 14, respectively. The hydro-meteorological extremes rate is showing increasing trend in near future and very high increase in far future. The study highlights the probability of occurrence of catastrophic events in coming future. The methodology and results of the present study can be beneficial for sustainable development of the basin to counter the effect of probable hydro-meteorological extremes in coming future.

Long-term mass balance and firn modelling for Abramov glacier, Pamir Alay

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marlene Kronenberg ◽  
Horst Machguth ◽  
Ward van Pelt ◽  
Martin Hoelzle
Keyword(s):  
Energy Balance ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Calibration Data ◽  
Mountain Glaciers ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Snow Model

<p>The application of a coupled energy balance-subsurface model allows studying the mass balance evolution of mountain glaciers and thereby assessing the role of subsurface processes in the accumulation area. Such model simulations are scarce for glaciers in High Mountain Asia where meteorological and glaciological calibration data are poorly available. Uncertainties in mass balance estimates are therefore high and questions regarding changes in accumulation and ablation regimes remain open.</p><p>Here, we run a distributed energy balance model coupled to a multi-layer snow model for Abramov glacier (Pamir Alay, 39.60°N 71.55° E) over the time period 1968 to present. A unique set of meteorological and glaciological data measured from 1968-99 is used to forceand calibrate the coupled model. The modelling period is extended to present using gridded precipitation data and recent measurements from an automatic weather station installed in 2012. We use repeated firn profiles from the 1970s and 2018 to evaluate modelled evolution of snow and firn conditions.</p><p>Preliminary modelling results show that the mass balance of Abramov glacier has been predominantly negative since 1969. However, also periods with increasing mass balance trends have been found since then. For the period of historical measurements (1968-98), our results suggest an increase of net accumulation in the accumulation area. This result points towards a steepening of the mass balance gradient, which may cause increased dynamics.</p>

scholarly journals Climate sensitivity of Storglaciären, Sweden: an intercomparison of mass-balance models using ERA-40 re-analysis and regional climate model data

2007 ◽  
Vol 46 ◽  
pp. 342-348 ◽  
Author(s):  
Regine Hock ◽  
Valentina Radić ◽  
Mattias De Woul
Keyword(s):  
Energy Balance ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Temperature Index ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
Cumulative Mass

AbstractEstimates of glacier contributions to future sea-level rise are often computed from mass-balance sensitivities derived for a set of representative glaciers. Our purpose is to investigate how mass-balance projections and sensitivities vary when using different approaches to compute the glacier mass balance. We choose Storglaciären, Sweden, as a test site and apply five different models including temperature-index and energy-balance approaches further varying in spatial discretization. The models are calibrated using daily European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts re-analysis (ERA-40) data. We compute static mass-balance sensitivities and cumulative mass balances until 2100 based on daily temperatures predicted by a regional climate model. Net mass-balance sensitivities to a +1 K perturbation and a 10% increase in precipitation spanned from –0.41 to –0.61 and from 0.19 to 0.22ma–1, respectively. The cumulative mass balance for the period 2002–2100 in response to the climate-model predicted temperature changes varied between –81 and –92m for four models, but was –121m for the fully distributed detailed energy-balance model. This indicates that mass losses may be underestimated if temperature-index methods are used instead of detailed energy-balance approaches that account for the effects of temperature changes on all energy-balance components individually. Our results suggest that future glacier predictions are sensitive to the choice of the mass-balance model broadening the spectrum in uncertainties.

Innovative energy and mass balance of a continuous evaporating crystallizer

2019 ◽  
pp. 646-654
Author(s):  
Jan Iciek ◽  
Kornel Hulak ◽  
Radosław Gruska
Keyword(s):  
Energy Balance ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Working Conditions ◽  
Crystallization Process ◽  
Heat Losses ◽  
Inert Gas ◽  
Gas Removal ◽  
Energy Balances ◽  
Heat Released ◽  
Mass And Energy Balances

The article presents the mass and energy balances of the sucrose crystallization process in a continuous evaporating crystallizer. The developed algorithm allows to assess the working conditions of the continuous evaporating crystallizers and the technological and energy parameters. The energy balance algorithm takes into account the heat released during the crystallization of sucrose, which was analyzed in this study, heat losses to the environment and heat losses due the vapor used for inert gas removal.

scholarly journals Projection of Hydro-Climatic Extreme Events under Climate Change in Yom and Nan River Basins, Thailand

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 665
Author(s):  
Chanchai Petpongpan ◽  
Chaiwat Ekkawatpanit ◽  
Supattra Visessri ◽  
Duangrudee Kositgittiwong
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Extreme Floods ◽  
Extreme Flood ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Far Future

Due to a continuous increase in global temperature, the climate has been changing without sign of alleviation. An increase in the air temperature has caused changes in the hydrologic cycle, which have been followed by several emergencies of natural extreme events around the world. Thailand is one of the countries that has incurred a huge loss in assets and lives from the extreme flood and drought events, especially in the northern part. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to assess the hydrological regime in the Yom and Nan River basins, affected by climate change as well as the possibility of extreme floods and droughts. The hydrological processes of the study areas were generated via the physically-based hydrological model, namely the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The projected climate conditions were dependent on the outputs of the Global Climate Models (GCMs) as the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5 between 2021 and 2095. Results show that the average air temperature, annual rainfall, and annual runoff will be significantly increased in the intermediate future (2046–2070) onwards, especially under RCP 8.5. According to the Flow Duration Curve and return period of peak discharge, there are fluctuating trends in the occurrence of extreme floods and drought events under RCP 2.6 from the future (2021–2045) to the far future (2071–2095). However, under RCP 8.5, the extreme flood and drought events seem to be more severe. The probability of extreme flood remains constant from the reference period to the near future, then rises dramatically in the intermediate and the far future. The intensity of extreme droughts will be increased in the near future and decreased in the intermediate future due to high annual rainfall, then tending to have an upward trend in the far future.

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