scholarly journals A Clinically-Translatable Machine Learning Algorithm for the Prediction of Alzheimer’s Disease Conversion in Individuals with Mild and Premild Cognitive Impairment

2018 ◽  
Vol 61 (4) ◽  
pp. 1555-1573 ◽  
Author(s):  
Massimiliano Grassi ◽  
Giampaolo Perna ◽  
Daniela Caldirola ◽  
Koen Schruers ◽  
Ranjan Duara ◽  
...  
2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Massimiliano Grassi ◽  
Nadine Rouleaux ◽  
Daniela Caldirola ◽  
David Loewenstein ◽  
Koen Schruers ◽  
...  

ABSTRACTBackgroundDespite the increasing availability in brain health related data, clinically translatable methods to predict the conversion from Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer’s disease (AD) are still lacking. Although MCI typically precedes AD, only a fraction of 20-40% of MCI individuals will progress to dementia within 3 years following the initial diagnosis. As currently available and emerging therapies likely have the greatest impact when provided at the earliest disease stage, the prompt identification of subjects at high risk for conversion to full AD is of great importance in the fight against this disease. In this work, we propose a highly predictive machine learning algorithm, based only on non-invasively and easily in-the-clinic collectable predictors, to identify MCI subjects at risk for conversion to full AD.MethodsThe algorithm was developed using the open dataset from the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI), employing a sample of 550 MCI subjects whose diagnostic follow-up is available for at least 3 years after the baseline assessment. A restricted set of information regarding sociodemographic and clinical characteristics, neuropsychological test scores was used as predictors and several different supervised machine learning algorithms were developed and ensembled in final algorithm. A site-independent stratified train/test split protocol was used to provide an estimate of the generalized performance of the algorithm.ResultsThe final algorithm demonstrated an AUROC of 0.88, sensitivity of 77.7%, and a specificity of 79.9% on excluded test data. The specificity of the algorithm was 40.2% for 100% sensitivity.DiscussionThe algorithm we developed achieved sound and high prognostic performance to predict AD conversion using easily clinically derived information that makes the algorithm easy to be translated into practice. This indicates beneficial application to improve recruitment in clinical trials and to more selectively prescribe new and newly emerging early interventions to high AD risk patients.


2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (07) ◽  
pp. 937-945 ◽  
Author(s):  
Massimiliano Grassi ◽  
David A. Loewenstein ◽  
Daniela Caldirola ◽  
Koen Schruers ◽  
Ranjan Duara ◽  
...  

ABSTRACTBackground:In a previous study, we developed a highly performant and clinically-translatable machine learning algorithm for a prediction of three-year conversion to Alzheimer’s disease (AD) in subjects with Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) and Pre-mild Cognitive Impairment. Further tests are necessary to demonstrate its accuracy when applied to subjects not used in the original training process. In this study, we aimed to provide preliminary evidence of this via a transfer learning approach.Methods:We initially employed the same baseline information (i.e. clinical and neuropsychological test scores, cardiovascular risk indexes, and a visual rating scale for brain atrophy) and the same machine learning technique (support vector machine with radial-basis function kernel) used in our previous study to retrain the algorithm to discriminate between participants with AD (n = 75) and normal cognition (n = 197). Then, the algorithm was applied to perform the original task of predicting the three-year conversion to AD in the sample of 61 MCI subjects that we used in the previous study.Results:Even after the retraining, the algorithm demonstrated a significant predictive performance in the MCI sample (AUC = 0.821, 95% CI bootstrap = 0.705–0.912, best balanced accuracy = 0.779, sensitivity = 0.852, specificity = 0.706).Conclusions:These results provide a first indirect evidence that our original algorithm can also perform relevant generalized predictions when applied to new MCI individuals. This motivates future efforts to bring the algorithm to sufficient levels of optimization and trustworthiness that will allow its application in both clinical and research settings.


2020 ◽  
Vol 48 (7) ◽  
pp. 030006052093688
Author(s):  
Daehyuk Yim ◽  
Tae Young Yeo ◽  
Moon Ho Park

Objective To develop a machine learning algorithm to identify cognitive dysfunction based on neuropsychological screening test results. Methods This retrospective study included 955 participants: 341 participants with dementia (dementia), 333 participants with mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and 341 participants who were cognitively healthy. All participants underwent evaluations including the Mini-Mental State Examination and the Montreal Cognitive Assessment. Each participant’s caregiver or informant was surveyed using the Korean Dementia Screening Questionnaire at the same visit. Different machine learning algorithms were applied, and their overall accuracies, Cohen’s kappa, receiver operating characteristic curves, and areas under the curve (AUCs) were calculated. Results The overall screening accuracies for MCI, dementia, and cognitive dysfunction (MCI or dementia) using a machine learning algorithm were approximately 67.8% to 93.5%, 96.8% to 99.9%, and 75.8% to 99.9%, respectively. Their kappa statistics ranged from 0.351 to 1.000. The AUCs of the machine learning models were statistically superior to those of the competing screening model. Conclusion This study suggests that a machine learning algorithm can be used as a supportive tool in the screening of MCI, dementia, and cognitive dysfunction.


PLoS ONE ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. e0229460
Author(s):  
Sylvester Olubolu Orimaye ◽  
Karl Goodkin ◽  
Ossama Abid Riaz ◽  
Jean-Maurice Miranda Salcedo ◽  
Thabit Al-Khateeb ◽  
...  

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