Designing an efficient predictor model using PSNN and crow search based optimization technique for gold price prediction

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Rajashree Dash ◽  
Anuradha Routray ◽  
Rasmita Dash ◽  
Rasmita Rautray
Keyword(s):  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Optimization Technique ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
Gold Price ◽  
Future Price ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Learning Speed ◽  
Predictor Model ◽  
Hidden Layer

Predicting future price of Gold has always been an intriguing field of investigation for researchers as well as investors who desire to invest in present and gain profit in the future. Since ancient time, Gold is being arbitrated as a leading asset in monetary business. As the worth of gold changes within confined boundaries, reducing the effect of inflation, so it is a beneficial property favoured by many stakeholders. Hence, there is always an urge of a more authenticate model for forecasting the gold price based upon the changes in it in a previous time frame. This study focuses on designing an efficient predictor model using a Pi-Sigma Neural Network (PSNN) for forecasting future gold. The underlying motivation of using PSNN is its quick learning and easy implementation compared to other neural networks. The fixed unit weights used in between hidden and output layer of PSNN helps it in achieving faster learning speed compared to other similar types of networks. But estimating the unknown weights used in between the input and hidden layer is still a major challenge in its design phase. As final outcome of the network is highly influenced by its weight, so a novel Crow Search based nature inspired optimization algorithm (CSA) is proposed to estimate these adjustable weights of the network. The proposed model is also compared with Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and Differential Evolution (DE) based learning of PSNN. The model is validated over two historical datasets such as Gold/INR and Gold/AED by considering three statistical errors such as Mean Square Error (MSE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). Empirical observations clearly show that, the developed CSA-PSNN predictor model is providing better prediction results compared to PSO-PSNN and DE-PSNN model.

scholarly journals Gold price prediction using an evolutionary pi-sigma neural network

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (4.5) ◽  
pp. 742
Author(s):  
Rajashree Dash ◽  
Anuradha Routray ◽  
Rasmita Rautray ◽  
Rasmita Dash
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Evaluation Criteria ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Gold Price ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Price Prediction ◽  
Future Value ◽  
Predictor Model ◽  
Result Analysis

Gold Price Prediction has always been a fascinating area of study for researchers and decision makers who wish to determine its future value efficiently and accurately. In this study a predictor model is designed using a Pi-Sigma Neural Network (PSNN) for prediction of future gold price. Two evolutionary estimation paradigms such as Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and Differential Evolution (DE) are suggested during training step of the Pi-Sigma Neural Network to optimize the tunable weights of the network. The model is evaluated based on certain performance evaluation criteria such as Mean Square Error (MSE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) over two dataset such as Gold/INR and Gold/AED accumulated within the same period of time. The result analysis illustrates the better prediction  

scholarly journals Application of Novel Machine Learning Techniques for Predicting the Surface Chloride Concentration in Concrete Containing Waste Material

Materials ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (9) ◽  
pp. 2297
Author(s):  
Ayaz Ahmad ◽  
Furqan Farooq ◽  
Krzysztof Adam Ostrowski ◽  
Klaudia Śliwa-Wieczorek ◽  
Slawomir Czarnecki
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Gene Expression Programming ◽  
Chloride Concentration ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Chloride Ions ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Extensive Literature ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Chloride Concentrations

Structures located on the coast are subjected to the long-term influence of chloride ions, which cause the corrosion of steel reinforcements in concrete elements. This corrosion severely affects the performance of the elements and may shorten the lifespan of an entire structure. Even though experimental activities in laboratories might be a solution, they may also be problematic due to time and costs. Thus, the application of individual machine learning (ML) techniques has been investigated to predict surface chloride concentrations (Cc) in marine structures. For this purpose, the values of Cc in tidal, splash, and submerged zones were collected from an extensive literature survey and incorporated into the article. Gene expression programming (GEP), the decision tree (DT), and an artificial neural network (ANN) were used to predict the surface chloride concentrations, and the most accurate algorithm was then selected. The GEP model was the most accurate when compared to ANN and DT, which was confirmed by the high accuracy level of the K-fold cross-validation and linear correlation coefficient (R2), mean absolute error (MAE), mean square error (MSE), and root mean square error (RMSE) parameters. As is shown in the article, the proposed method is an effective and accurate way to predict the surface chloride concentration without the inconveniences of laboratory tests.

scholarly journals Artificial Neural Network (FFBP-ANN) Based Grey Relational Analysis for Modeling Dyestuff Solubility in Supercritical CO2 with Ethanol as the Co-Solvent

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
FNU SRINIDHI
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Supercritical Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Supercritical Co2 ◽  
Mean Absolute Error ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Relational Analysis ◽  
Grey Relational ◽  
Supercritical Carbon

The research on dye solubility modeling in supercritical carbon dioxide is gaining prominence over the past few decades. A simple and ubiquitous model that is capable of accurately predicting the solubility in supercritical carbon dioxide would be invaluable for industrial and research applications. In this study, we present such a model for predicting dye solubility in supercritical carbon dioxide with ethanol as the co-solvent for a qualitatively diverse sample of eight dyes. A feed forward back propagation - artificial neural network model based on Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm was constructed with seven input parameters for solubility prediction, the network architecture was optimized to be [7-7-1] with mean absolute error, mean square error, root mean square error and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient to be 0.026, 0.0016, 0.04 and 0.9588 respectively. Further, Pearson-product moment correlation analysis was performed to assess the relative importance of the parameters considered in the ANN model. A total of twelve prevalent semiempirical equations were also studied to analyze their efficiency in correlating to the solubility of the prepared sample. Mendez-Teja model was found to be relatively efficient with root mean square error and mean absolute error to be 0.094 and 0.0088 respectively. Furthermore, Grey relational analysis was performed and the optimum regime of temperature and pressure were identified with dye solubility as the higher the better performance characteristic. Finally, the dye specific crossover ranges were identified by analysis of isotherms and a strategy for class specific selective dye extraction using supercritical CO2 extraction process is proposed.

scholarly journals Financial Time Series Image Algorithm Based on Wavelet Analysis and Data Fusion

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Wuwei Liu ◽  
Jingdong Yan
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Wavelet Transform ◽  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Financial Time Series ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Rbf Network ◽  
Network Prediction ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Hidden Layer

In recent years, people are more and more interested in time series modeling and its application in prediction. This paper mainly discusses a financial time series image algorithm based on wavelet analysis and data fusion. In this research, we conducted an in-depth study on the scale decomposition sequence and wavelet transform sequence in different scale domains of wavelet transform according to the scale change rule based on wavelet transform. We use wavelet neural network with different input neurons and hidden neurons to predict, respectively. Finally, the prediction results are integrated into the final prediction results based on the original time series by using wavelet reconstruction technology. Using RBF algorithm in neural network and SPSS Clementine, the wavelet transform sequences on five scales are modeled. Each network model has three layers: one input layer, one hidden layer, and one output layer, and each output layer has only one output element. In order to compare the prediction effect of the model proposed in this study, the ordinary RBF network is used to model and predict the log yield itself. When the input sample is 5, the minimum mean square error is obtained when the hidden layer is 6, and the mean square error is 1.6349. The mean square error of the training phase is 0.0209, and the validation error is 1.6141. The results show that the prediction results of the wavelet prediction method combined with the RBF network prediction method are better than those of wavelet prediction or RBF network prediction.

Metabolic Rate in Adolescent Athletes: The Development and Validation of New Equations, and Comparison to Previous Models

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (4) ◽  
pp. 249-257
Author(s):  
Reid J. Reale ◽  
Timothy J. Roberts ◽  
Khalil A. Lee ◽  
Justina L. Bonsignore ◽  
Melissa L. Anderson
Keyword(s):  
Root Mean Square Error ◽  
Metabolic Rate ◽  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Root Mean Square ◽  
Mean Absolute Error ◽  
Compartment Model ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Adolescent Athletes ◽  
Two Compartment Model

We sought to assess the accuracy of current or developing new prediction equations for resting metabolic rate (RMR) in adolescent athletes. RMR was assessed via indirect calorimetry, alongside known predictors (body composition via dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, height, age, and sex) and hypothesized predictors (race and maturation status assessed via years to peak height velocity), in a diverse cohort of adolescent athletes (n = 126, 77% male, body mass = 72.8 ± 16.6 kg, height = 176.2 ± 10.5 cm, age = 16.5 ± 1.4 years). Predictive equations were produced and cross-validated using repeated k-fold cross-validation by stepwise multiple linear regression (10 folds, 100 repeats). Performance of the developed equations was compared with several published equations. Seven of the eight published equations examined performed poorly, underestimating RMR in >75% to >90% of cases. Root mean square error of the six equations ranged from 176 to 373, mean absolute error ranged from 115 to 373 kcal, and mean absolute error SD ranged from 103 to 185 kcal. Only the Schofield equation performed reasonably well, underestimating RMR in 51% of cases. A one- and two-compartment model were developed, both r2 of .83, root mean square error of 147, and mean absolute error of 114 ± 26 and 117 ± 25 kcal for the one- and two-compartment model, respectively. Based on the models’ performance, as well as visual inspection of residual plots, the following model predicts RMR in adolescent athletes with better precision than previous models; RMR = 11.1 × body mass (kg) + 8.4 × height (cm) − (340 male or 537 female).

scholarly journals Electrical Energy Prediction in Residential Buildings for Short-Term Horizons Using Hybrid Deep Learning Strategy

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (23) ◽  
pp. 8634
Author(s):  
Zulfiqar Ahmad Khan ◽  
Amin Ullah ◽  
Waseem Ullah ◽  
Seungmin Rho ◽  
Miyoung Lee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Learning Strategy ◽  
Residential Buildings ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Management Policy ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Load Prediction ◽  
Energy Prediction ◽  
Proposed Model

Smart grid technology based on renewable energy and energy storage systems are attracting considerable attention towards energy crises. Accurate and reliable model for electricity prediction is considered a key factor for a suitable energy management policy. Currently, electricity consumption is rapidly increasing due to the rise in human population and technology development. Therefore, in this study, we established a two-step methodology for residential building load prediction, which comprises two stages: in the first stage, the raw data of electricity consumption are refined for effective training; and the second step includes a hybrid model with the integration of convolutional neural network (CNN) and multilayer bidirectional gated recurrent unit (MB-GRU). The CNN layers are incorporated into the model as a feature extractor, while MB-GRU learns the sequences between electricity consumption data. The proposed model is evaluated using the root mean square error (RMSE), mean square error (MSE), and mean absolute error (MAE) metrics. Finally, our model is assessed over benchmark datasets that exhibited an extensive drop in the error rate in comparison to other techniques. The results indicated that the proposed model reduced errors over the individual household electricity consumption prediction (IHEPC) dataset (i.e., RMSE (5%), MSE (4%), and MAE (4%)), and for the appliances load prediction (AEP) dataset (i.e., RMSE (2%), and MAE (1%)).

scholarly journals Global Mean Sea Surface Height Estimated from Spaceborne Cyclone-GNSS Reflectometry

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 356 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hui Qiu ◽  
Shuanggen Jin
Keyword(s):  
Root Mean Square Error ◽  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Correlation Coefficient ◽  
Root Mean Square ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Satellite System ◽  
Sea Surface Height ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Mean Sea Surface

Mean sea surface height (MSSH) is an important parameter, which plays an important role in the analysis of the geoid gap and the prediction of ocean dynamics. Traditional measurement methods, such as the buoy and ship survey, have a small cover area, sparse data, and high cost. Recently, the Global Navigation Satellite System-Reflectometry (GNSS-R) and the spaceborne Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) mission, which were launched on 15 December 2016, have provided a new opportunity to estimate MSSH with all-weather, global coverage, high spatial-temporal resolution, rich signal sources, and strong concealability. In this paper, the global MSSH was estimated by using the relationship between the waveform characteristics of the delay waveform (DM) obtained by the delay Doppler map (DDM) of CYGNSS data, which was validated by satellite altimetry. Compared with the altimetry CNES_CLS2015 product provided by AVISO, the mean absolute error was 1.33 m, the root mean square error was 2.26 m, and the correlation coefficient was 0.97. Compared with the sea surface height model DTU10, the mean absolute error was 1.20 m, the root mean square error was 2.15 m, and the correlation coefficient was 0.97. Furthermore, the sea surface height obtained from CYGNSS was consistent with Jason-2′s results by the average absolute error of 2.63 m, a root mean square error ( RMSE ) of 3.56 m and, a correlation coefficient ( R ) of 0.95.

scholarly journals Root mean square error (RMSE) or mean absolute error (MAE)? – Arguments against avoiding RMSE in the literature

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 1247-1250 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Chai ◽  
R. R. Draxler
Keyword(s):  
Root Mean Square Error ◽  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Root Mean Square ◽  
Model Evaluation ◽  
Mean Absolute Error ◽  
Evaluation Studies ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Average Error ◽  
Mean Square

Abstract. Both the root mean square error (RMSE) and the mean absolute error (MAE) are regularly employed in model evaluation studies. Willmott and Matsuura (2005) have suggested that the RMSE is not a good indicator of average model performance and might be a misleading indicator of average error, and thus the MAE would be a better metric for that purpose. While some concerns over using RMSE raised by Willmott and Matsuura (2005) and Willmott et al. (2009) are valid, the proposed avoidance of RMSE in favor of MAE is not the solution. Citing the aforementioned papers, many researchers chose MAE over RMSE to present their model evaluation statistics when presenting or adding the RMSE measures could be more beneficial. In this technical note, we demonstrate that the RMSE is not ambiguous in its meaning, contrary to what was claimed by Willmott et al. (2009). The RMSE is more appropriate to represent model performance than the MAE when the error distribution is expected to be Gaussian. In addition, we show that the RMSE satisfies the triangle inequality requirement for a distance metric, whereas Willmott et al. (2009) indicated that the sums-of-squares-based statistics do not satisfy this rule. In the end, we discussed some circumstances where using the RMSE will be more beneficial. However, we do not contend that the RMSE is superior over the MAE. Instead, a combination of metrics, including but certainly not limited to RMSEs and MAEs, are often required to assess model performance.

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