Cross-issue correlation based opinion prediction in cyber argumentation

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-39
Author(s):  
Md Mahfuzer Rahman ◽  
Xiaoqing “Frank” Liu ◽  
Joseph W. Sirrianni ◽  
Douglas Adams
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Model ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Collective Intelligence ◽  
Intelligence Analysis ◽  
Social Phenomena ◽  
Argumentation Analysis ◽  
Multiple Issues ◽  
Analysis Models ◽  
Better Than

One of the challenging problems in large scale cyber-argumentation platforms is that users often engage and focus only on a few issues and leave other issues under-discussed and under-acknowledged. This kind of non-uniform participation obstructs the argumentation analysis models to retrieve collective intelligence from the underlying discussion. To resolve this problem, we developed an innovative opinion prediction model for a multi-issue cyber-argumentation environment. Our model predicts users’ opinions on the non-participated issues from similar users’ opinions on related issues using intelligent argumentation techniques and a collaborative filtering method. Based on our detailed experimental results on an empirical dataset collected using our cyber-argumentation platform, our model is 21.7% more accurate, handles data sparsity better than other popular opinion prediction methods. Our model can also predict opinions on multiple issues simultaneously with reasonable accuracy. Contrary to existing opinion prediction models, which only predict whether a user agrees on an issue, our model predicts how much a user agrees on the issue. To our knowledge, this is the first research to attempt multi-issue opinion prediction with the partial agreement in the cyber-argumentation platform. With additional data on non-participated issues, our opinion prediction model can help the collective intelligence analysis models to analyze social phenomena more effectively and accurately in the cyber argumentation platform.

Bioactivity Prediction Based on Matched Molecular Pair and Matched Molecular Series Methods

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (33) ◽  
pp. 4195-4205
Author(s):  
Xiaoyu Ding ◽  
Chen Cui ◽  
Dingyan Wang ◽  
Jihui Zhao ◽  
Mingyue Zheng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Model ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Lead Optimization ◽  
Consensus Method ◽  
Molecular Pair ◽  
Bioactivity Prediction ◽  
Compound Synthesis ◽  
Consensus Modeling

Background: Enhancing a compound’s biological activity is the central task for lead optimization in small molecules drug discovery. However, it is laborious to perform many iterative rounds of compound synthesis and bioactivity tests. To address the issue, it is highly demanding to develop high quality in silico bioactivity prediction approaches, to prioritize such more active compound derivatives and reduce the trial-and-error process. Methods: Two kinds of bioactivity prediction models based on a large-scale structure-activity relationship (SAR) database were constructed. The first one is based on the similarity of substituents and realized by matched molecular pair analysis, including SA, SA_BR, SR, and SR_BR. The second one is based on SAR transferability and realized by matched molecular series analysis, including Single MMS pair, Full MMS series, and Multi single MMS pairs. Moreover, we also defined the application domain of models by using the distance-based threshold. Results: Among seven individual models, Multi single MMS pairs bioactivity prediction model showed the best performance (R2 = 0.828, MAE = 0.406, RMSE = 0.591), and the baseline model (SA) produced the most lower prediction accuracy (R2 = 0.798, MAE = 0.446, RMSE = 0.637). The predictive accuracy could further be improved by consensus modeling (R2 = 0.842, MAE = 0.397 and RMSE = 0.563). Conclusion: An accurate prediction model for bioactivity was built with a consensus method, which was superior to all individual models. Our model should be a valuable tool for lead optimization.

scholarly journals Machine Learning-Based Prediction Model for Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma Recurrence

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Young Min Park ◽  
Byung-Joo Lee
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Tumor Size ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Prognostic Significance ◽  
Disease Recurrence ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Papillary Thyroid ◽  
Recurrence Prediction

Abstract Background: This study analyzed the prognostic significance of nodal factors, including the number of metastatic LNs and LNR, in patients with PTC, and attempted to construct a disease recurrence prediction model using machine learning techniques.Methods: We retrospectively analyzed clinico-pathologic data from 1040 patients diagnosed with papillary thyroid cancer between 2003 and 2009. Results: We analyzed clinico-pathologic factors related to recurrence through logistic regression analysis. Among the factors that we included, only sex and tumor size were significantly correlated with disease recurrence. Parameters such as age, sex, tumor size, tumor multiplicity, ETE, ENE, pT, pN, ipsilateral central LN metastasis, contralateral central LNs metastasis, number of metastatic LNs, and LNR were input for construction of a machine learning prediction model. The performance of five machine learning models related to recurrence prediction was compared based on accuracy. The Decision Tree model showed the best accuracy at 95%, and the lightGBM and stacking model together showed 93% accuracy. Conclusions: We confirmed that all machine learning prediction models showed an accuracy of 90% or more for predicting disease recurrence in PTC. Large-scale multicenter clinical studies should be performed to improve the performance of our prediction models and verify their clinical effectiveness.

scholarly journals Machine Learning Prediction Model for Acute Renal Failure After Acute Aortic Syndrome Surgery

2022 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jinzhang Li ◽  
Ming Gong ◽  
Yashutosh Joshi ◽  
Lizhong Sun ◽  
Lianjun Huang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Renal Failure ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
External Validation ◽  
Scoring Systems ◽  
Acute Aortic Syndrome ◽  
Internal Validation ◽  
Medical Centers ◽  
Better Than

BackgroundAcute renal failure (ARF) is the most common major complication following cardiac surgery for acute aortic syndrome (AAS) and worsens the postoperative prognosis. Our aim was to establish a machine learning prediction model for ARF occurrence in AAS patients.MethodsWe included AAS patient data from nine medical centers (n = 1,637) and analyzed the incidence of ARF and the risk factors for postoperative ARF. We used data from six medical centers to compare the performance of four machine learning models and performed internal validation to identify AAS patients who developed postoperative ARF. The area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to compare the performance of the predictive models. We compared the performance of the optimal machine learning prediction model with that of traditional prediction models. Data from three medical centers were used for external validation.ResultsThe eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm performed best in the internal validation process (AUC = 0.82), which was better than both the logistic regression (LR) prediction model (AUC = 0.77, p < 0.001) and the traditional scoring systems. Upon external validation, the XGBoost prediction model (AUC =0.81) also performed better than both the LR prediction model (AUC = 0.75, p = 0.03) and the traditional scoring systems. We created an online application based on the XGBoost prediction model.ConclusionsWe have developed a machine learning model that has better predictive performance than traditional LR prediction models as well as other existing risk scoring systems for postoperative ARF. This model can be utilized to provide early warnings when high-risk patients are found, enabling clinicians to take prompt measures.

Non-equidistant non-homogenous grey prediction model with fractional accumulation and its application

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Jia-Nian Zhu ◽  
Xu-Chong Liu ◽  
Chong Liu
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Model ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Grey Prediction ◽  
Grey Prediction Model ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Whale Optimization ◽  
High Prediction ◽  
Best Parameters ◽  
Better Than

Non-equidistant non-homogenous grey model (abbreviated as NENGM (1,1, k) model) is a grey prediction model suitable for predicting time series with non-equal intervals. It is widely used in various fields of society due to its high prediction accuracy and strong adaptability. In order to further improve the prediction accuracy of the NENGM (1,1, k) model, the NENGM (1,1, k) model is optimized in terms of the cumulative order and background value of the NENGM (1,1, k) model, and a NENGM (1,1, k) model based on double optimization is established (abbreviated as FBNENGM (1,1, k) model), and the whale optimization algorithm is used to solve the best parameters of the model. In order to verify the feasibility and validity of the FBNENGM (1,1, k) model, the FBNENGM (1,1, k) model and other four prediction models are applied to three cases respectively, and three indexes commonly used to evaluate the performance of prediction models are used to distinguish. The results show that the prediction accuracy of the FBNENGM (1,1, k) model based on double optimization is better than other prediction models.

Dropout Prediction in MOOCs: Using Deep Learning for Personalized Intervention

2018 ◽  
Vol 57 (3) ◽  
pp. 547-570 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wanli Xing ◽  
Dongping Du
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
At Risk Students ◽  
Individual Student ◽  
Intervention Design ◽  
Temporal Prediction ◽  
Personalized Intervention

Massive open online courses (MOOCs) show great potential to transform traditional education through the Internet. However, the high attrition rates in MOOCs have often been cited as a scale-efficacy tradeoff. Traditional educational approaches are usually unable to identify such large-scale number of at-risk students in danger of dropping out in time to support effective intervention design. While building dropout prediction models using learning analytics are promising in informing intervention design for these at-risk students, results of the current prediction model construction methods do not enable personalized intervention for these students. In this study, we take an initial step to optimize the dropout prediction model performance toward intervention personalization for at-risk students in MOOCs. Specifically, based on a temporal prediction mechanism, this study proposes to use the deep learning algorithm to construct the dropout prediction model and further produce the predicted individual student dropout probability. By taking advantage of the power of deep learning, this approach not only constructs more accurate dropout prediction models compared with baseline algorithms but also comes up with an approach to personalize and prioritize intervention for at-risk students in MOOCs through using individual drop out probabilities. The findings from this study and implications are then discussed.

Neural Networks and Statistical Analysis for Time and Cost Prediction Models of Urban Redevelopment Projects

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 37-52
Author(s):  
Maria Gkovedarou ◽  
Georgios N. Aretoulis
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Urban Renewal ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Public Works ◽  
Public Projects ◽  
Time Prediction ◽  
Delivery Date ◽  
Analysis Models ◽  
Better Than

Over the last few years, a plethora of public works have taken place, focusing towards urban renewal, in the greater Thessaloniki district. Municipality of Thessaloniki, provided data for twelve public projects of urban renewal. Mathematical models have been proposed for cost and time prediction based on regression analysis. Furthermore, the Fast Artificial Neural Network (FANN Tool) was applied, to predict the duration and the final cost of the project, using volume of earthwork, as input variable. Both approaches could facilitate project stakeholders, to forecast the projects' final delivery date and cost and provide early warnings for any deviation from the initial budget. The results indicate that neural networks perform better than regression analysis' models, in the case of urban renewal projects.

scholarly journals Prediction of Prehypertenison and Hypertension Based on Anthropometry, Blood Parameters, and Spirometry

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (11) ◽  
pp. 2571 ◽  
Author(s):  
Byeong Mun Heo ◽  
Keun Ho Ryu
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Binary Logistic Regression ◽  
Blood Parameters ◽  
Binary Logistic Regression Analysis

Hypertension and prehypertension are risk factors for cardiovascular diseases. However, the associations of both prehypertension and hypertension with anthropometry, blood parameters, and spirometry have not been investigated. The purpose of this study was to identify the risk factors for prehypertension and hypertension in middle-aged Korean adults and to study prediction models of prehypertension and hypertension combined with anthropometry, blood parameters, and spirometry. Binary logistic regression analysis was performed to assess the statistical significance of prehypertension and hypertension, and prediction models were developed using logistic regression, naïve Bayes, and decision trees. Among all risk factors for prehypertension, body mass index (BMI) was identified as the best indicator in both men [odds ratio (OR) = 1.429, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.304–1.462)] and women (OR = 1.428, 95% CI = 1.204–1.453). In contrast, among all risk factors for hypertension, BMI (OR = 1.993, 95% CI = 1.818–2.186) was found to be the best indicator in men, whereas the waist-to-height ratio (OR = 2.071, 95% CI = 1.884–2.276) was the best indicator in women. In the prehypertension prediction model, men exhibited an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.635, and women exhibited a predictive power with an AUC of 0.777. In the hypertension prediction model, men exhibited an AUC of 0.700, and women exhibited an AUC of 0.845. This study proposes various risk factors for prehypertension and hypertension, and our findings can be used as a large-scale screening tool for controlling and managing hypertension.

scholarly journals Assessment of Three Mathematical Prediction Models for Forecasting the COVID-19 Outbreak in Iran and Turkey

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Majid Niazkar ◽  
Gökçen Eryılmaz Türkkan ◽  
Hamid Reza Niazkar ◽  
Yusuf Alptekin Türkkan
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Model ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Estimation Model ◽  
Public Health Decision ◽  
Boltzmann Function ◽  
Health Decision ◽  
Relative Errors ◽  
Death Cases ◽  
Better Than

COVID-19 pandemic has become a concern of every nation, and it is crucial to apply an estimation model with a favorably-high accuracy to provide an accurate perspective of the situation. In this study, three explicit mathematical prediction models were applied to forecast the COVID-19 outbreak in Iran and Turkey. These models include a recursive-based method, Boltzmann Function-based model and Beesham’s prediction model. These models were exploited to analyze the confirmed and death cases of the first 106 and 87 days of the COVID-19 outbreak in Iran and Turkey, respectively. This application indicates that the three models fail to predict the first 10 to 20 days of data, depending on the prediction model. On the other hand, the results obtained for the rest of the data demonstrate that the three prediction models achieve high values for the determination coefficient, whereas they yielded to different average absolute relative errors. Based on the comparison, the recursive-based model performs the best, while it estimated the COVID-19 outbreak in Iran better than that of in Turkey. Impacts of applying or relaxing control measurements like curfew in Turkey and reopening the low-risk businesses in Iran were investigated through the recursive-based model. Finally, the results demonstrate the merit of the recursive-based model in analyzing various scenarios, which may provide suitable information for health politicians and public health decision-makers.

PENGEMBANGAN MEDIA BIG BOOK UNTUK MENINGKATKAN HASIL BELAJAR PECAHAN SENILAI SISWA SD

2018 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 67-76
Author(s):  
Disyacitta Neolia Firdana ◽  
Trimurtini Trimurtini
Keyword(s):  
Learning Outcomes ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Fourth Grade ◽  
Learning Activities ◽  
Equivalent Fractions ◽  
Fourth Grade Students ◽  
Teacher Needs ◽  
The Media ◽  
Test Result ◽  
Better Than

This research aimed to determine the properness and effectiveness of the big book media on learning equivalent fractions of fourth grade students. The method of research is Research and Development  (R&D). This study was conducted in fourth grade of SDN Karanganyar 02 Kota Semarang. Data sources from media validation, material validation, learning outcomes, and teacher and students responses on developed media. Pre-experimental research design with one group pretest-posttest design. Big book developed consist of equivalent fractions material, students learning activities sheets with rectangle and circle shape pictures, and questions about equivalent fractions. Big book was developed based on students and teacher needs. This big book fulfill the media validity of 3,75 with very good criteria and scored 3 by material experts with good criteria. In large-scale trial, the result of students posttest have learning outcomes completness 82,14%. The result of N-gain calculation with result 0,55 indicates the criterion “medium”. The t-test result 9,6320 > 2,0484 which means the average of posttest outcomes is better than the average of pretest outcomes. Based on that data, this study has produced big book media which proper and effective as a media of learning equivalent fractions of fourth grade elementary school.

Fire modelling in Tasmanian buttongrass moorlands. III. Dead fuel moisture

2001 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 241 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jon B. Marsden-Smedley ◽  
Wendy R. Catchpole
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Model ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Fire Management ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Dew Point ◽  
Seasonal Effects ◽  
Experimental Program ◽  
Fuel Moisture ◽  
Fire Behaviour ◽  
Fire Modelling

An experimental program was carried out in Tasmanian buttongrass moorlands to develop fire behaviour prediction models for improving fire management. This paper describes the results of the fuel moisture modelling section of this project. A range of previously developed fuel moisture prediction models are examined and three empirical dead fuel moisture prediction models are developed. McArthur’s grassland fuel moisture model gave equally good predictions as a linear regression model using humidity and dew-point temperature. The regression model was preferred as a prediction model as it is inherently more robust. A prediction model based on hazard sticks was found to have strong seasonal effects which need further investigation before hazard sticks can be used operationally.

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