scholarly journals Modeling the hydrological response to climate change in a glacierized high mountain region, northwest China

2015 ◽  
Vol 61 (225) ◽  
pp. 127-136 ◽  
Author(s):  
Meiping Sun ◽  
Zhongqin Li ◽  
Xiaojun Yao ◽  
Mingjun Zhang ◽  
Shuang Jin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Source Area ◽  
Northwest China ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Complete Disappearance ◽  
Glacier Area ◽  
Warming Climate ◽  
Mountain Catchment ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe impact of climate change on the variability of local discharge was investigated in a glacierized high mountain catchment located in the source area of the Ürümqi river, northwest China. We used past climate records to drive a hydrological model to simulate the discharge from 2000 to 2008. The model was then used to project future discharge variations for the period 2041–60, based on a regionally downscaled climate-change scenario combined with three stages of glacier coverage (i.e. compared to the glacier coverage in 2008): unchanged glacier size (100% glacierized), recession of half the glacier area (50% glacierized) and complete disappearance of glaciers (0% glacierized). In each scenario, snowmelt will begin half a month earlier and the discharge will increase in May. For the 100% glacierized scenario, the discharge will increase by 66 ± 35% in a smaller (3.34 km2) and more glaciated (50%) catchment and 33 ± 20% in a larger (28.90 km2) and proportionally less glaciated (18%) catchment. If the glacier area reduces by half, the discharge will decrease by 8 ± 5% and 9 ± 6%, respectively. Once the glacier disappears, the discharge will decrease by 58 ± 20% and 40 ± 13%, respectively. Together, the results indicate that a warming climate and the resulting glacier shrinkage will cause significant changes in the volume and timing of runoff.

scholarly journals Variation of Runoff and Runoff Components of the Upper Shule River in the Northeastern Qinghai–Tibet Plateau under Climate Change

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (23) ◽  
pp. 3357
Author(s):  
Jinkui Wu ◽  
Hongyuan Li ◽  
Jiaxin Zhou ◽  
Shuya Tai ◽  
Xueliang Wang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sustainable Use ◽  
Reduction Rate ◽  
Northwest China ◽  
Tibet Plateau ◽  
Glacier Area ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Total Runoff ◽  
Increasing Temperature ◽  
The Impact

Quantifying the impact of climate change on hydrologic features is essential for the scientific planning, management and sustainable use of water resources in Northwest China. Based on hydrometeorological data and glacier inventory data, the Spatial Processes in Hydrology (SPHY) model was used to simulate the changes of hydrologic processes in the Upper Shule River (USR) from 1971 to 2020, and variations of runoff and runoff components were quantitatively analyzed using the simulations and observations. The results showed that the glacier area has decreased by 21.8% with a reduction rate of 2.06 km2/a. Significant increasing trends in rainfall runoff, glacier runoff (GR) and baseflow indicate there has been a consistent increase in total runoff due to increasing rainfall and glacier melting. The baseflow has made the largest contribution to total runoff, followed by GR, rainfall runoff and snow runoff, with mean annual contributions of 38%, 28%, 18% and 16%, respectively. The annual contribution of glacier and snow runoff to the total runoff shows a decreasing trend with decreasing glacier area and increasing temperature. Any increase of total runoff in the future will depend on an increase of rainfall, which will exacerbate the impact of drought and flood disasters.

Influence of climate change on soil erosion in high mountain area: a case study of upper Heihe river basin

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Li Wang ◽  
Fan Zhang ◽  
Guanxing Wang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Erosion ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Effect Of Temperature ◽  
Heihe River ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Mountain Area ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
High Mountain Area ◽  
The Impact

<p>The impact of climate change on soil erosion is pronounced in high mountain area. In this study, the revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE) model was improved for better calculation of soil erosion during snowmelt period by integrating a distributed hydrological model in upper Heihe river basin (UHRB). The results showed that the annual average soil erosion rate from 1982 to 2015 in the study area was 8.1 t ha<sup>-1 </sup>yr<sup>-1</sup>, belonging to the light grade. To evaluate the influence of climate change on soil erosion, detrended analysis of precipitation, temperature and NDVI was conducted. It was found that in detrended analysis of precipitation and temperature, the soil erosion of UHRB would decrease 26.5% and 3.0%, respectively. While in detrended analysis of NDVI, soil erosion would increase 9.9%. Compared with precipitation, the effect of temperature on total soil erosion was not significant, but the detrended analysis of temperature showed that the effect of temperature on soil erosion during snowmelt period can reach 70%. These finding were helpful for better understanding of the impact of climate change on soil erosion and provide a scientific basis for soil management in high mountain area under climate change in the future.</p>

Effect of climate change, drought, and insects on oak-pine forests in the Ozark highlands

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Shengwu Duan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Growth ◽  
Pine Forests ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variation ◽  
Oak Forests ◽  
Drought Effect ◽  
Ozark Highlands ◽  
Disturbance Regimes ◽  
Warming Climate ◽  
The Impact

[ACCESS RESTRICTED TO THE UNIVERSITY OF MISSOURI--COLUMBIA AT REQUEST OF AUTHOR.] Oak-dominated forests in the Ozarks Highlands of Arkansas and Missouri have been suffering severe oak decline and this became a chronic problem since the late 1970s. Such decline became increasingly severe as numerous dense oak forests in this region approaching physiological maturity. Repeated droughts and insect outbreaks in the Ozarks Highlands from 1998 to 2015 accelerate the decline process and resulted in increased mortality of the oaks, particularly those in red oak group. Given these concerns, the overall objective of this dissertation was to conduct a regional scale assessment to evaluate and predict the impact of drought and insects on the oak forests under changing climate. This dissertation contained three main objectives: 1) to evaluate the drought effect on forest growth phenology and productivity by using spatially-explicit drought indices and land surface phenology techniques to capture oak, pine and mixed oak-pine forests' responses to repeated droughts; 2) to develop a climate sensitive biotic disturbance agent (BDA) module in forest landscape modeling framework to quantify the relative importance in determining the insect disturbance regimes under the warming climate; and 3) to predict the effects of insect disturbance, climate change and their interactions on forest composition under alternative climate and insect disturbance scenarios. The dissertation provided a methodology to disassemble the spatial and temporal variation of drought conditions in the Ozark Highlands and provided new insights into improving drought resistance and recovery capacity of forests with different species under climate change. The results from this dissertation also helped to understand the importance of vegetation feedback in predicting inset disturbance regimes under a warming climate as they may mediate or even reverse the expectation of increased insect disturbance in this region. In addition, the projections of how tree species will response to insect disturbance will benefit decision making in silvicultural prescriptions and longterm management plans in the Ozark Highlands.

scholarly journals Climate Change Impact on Flood Frequency and Source Area in Northern Iran under CMIP5 Scenarios

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 273 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fatemeh Fadia Maghsood ◽  
Hamidreza Moradi ◽  
Ali Reza Massah Bavani ◽  
Mostafa Panahi ◽  
Ronny Berndtsson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Source Area ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Northern Iran ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Flood Source

This study assessed the impact of climate change on flood frequency and flood source area at basin scale considering Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 General Circulation Models (CMIP5 GCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios (2.6 and 8.5). For this purpose, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model was calibrated and validated for the Talar River Basin in northern Iran. Four empirical approaches including the Sangal, Fill–Steiner, Fuller, and Slope-based methods were used to estimate the Instantaneous Peak Flow (IPF) on a daily basis. The calibrated SWAT model was run under the two RCP scenarios using a combination of twenty GCMs from CMIP5 for the near future (2020–40). To assess the impact of climate change on flood frequency pattern and to quantify the contribution of each subbasin on the total discharge from the Talar River Basin, Flood Frequency Index (FFI) and Subbasin Flood Source Area Index (SFSAI) were used. Results revealed that the projected climate change will likely lead to an average discharge decrease in January, February, and March for both RCPs and an increase in September and October for RCP 8.5. The maximum and minimum temperature will likely increase for all months in the near future. The annual precipitation could increase by more than 20% in the near future. This is likely to lead to an increase of IPF. The results can help managers and policy makers to better define mitigation and adaptation strategies for basins in similar climates.

scholarly journals On the factors influencing surface-layer energy closure and their seasonal variability over the semi-arid Loess Plateau of Northwest China

2012 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 893-910
Author(s):  
X. Xiao ◽  
H. C. Zuo ◽  
Q. D. Yang ◽  
S. J. Wang ◽  
L. J. Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surface Layer ◽  
Energy Balance ◽  
Atmospheric Turbulence ◽  
Loess Plateau ◽  
Turbulence Intensity ◽  
Source Area ◽  
Northwest China ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Semi Arid

Abstract. The energy observed in the surface layer, when using eddy-covariance techniques to measure turbulent fluxes, is not balanced. Important progress has been made in recent years in identifying potential reasons for this lack of closure in the energy balance, but the problem is not yet resolved. In this paper, long-term data that include output of tower, radiation, surface turbulence flux and soil measurement collected from September 2006 to August 2010 in the Semi-Arid Climate Change and Environment Observatory, Lanzhou University, in the semi-arid Loess Plateau of Northwest China, were analysed, focusing on the seasonal characteristics of the surface energy and the factors that have impact on the energy balance closure (EBC). The analysis shows that (1) the long-term observations are successful; the interaction between the land and the atmosphere in semi-arid climates can be represented by the turbulent transport of energy. In addition, even though the residual is obvious, this suggests that the factors that impact the EBC are stable, and their seasonal variations are identical. The analysis also shows that (2) four factors have obvious impact on the EBC: the diverse schemes for surface soil heat flux, the flux contribution from the target source area, the low-frequency part of the turbulence spectra, and the strength of atmospheric turbulence motion. The impact of these four factors on the EBC are similar in all seasons. Lastly, the results indicate that (3) atmospheric turbulence intensity is a very important factor in terms of its impact on the EBC. The relative turbulence intensity, RIw, characterises the strength of atmospheric turbulence motion, and is found to exert a noticeable impact on the EBC; in all seasons, the EBC is increased when the relative turbulence intensity is enlarged.

Relationship between atmospheric BC concentration and vehicular traffic in high mountain locations, case of study: Portillo, Chilean Central Andes

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Florencia Ruggeri ◽  
Victor Vidal ◽  
Francisco Cereceda-Balic
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Seasonal Pattern ◽  
Early Morning ◽  
Central Andes ◽  
Traffic Density ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Mountain Range ◽  
Vehicular Traffic ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
The Impact

<p>Black carbon (BC) has been pointed as the second largest contributor to climate change after greenhouse gases due to its superior ability to absorb solar radiation. This characteristic is particularly relevant in cryospheric environments, where the presence of BC has been related to a decrease in the albedo of ice/snow surfaces and the acceleration of their melting. In this sense, determination and quantification of BC levels in remote areas can be useful when defining and differentiating emission sources from which they come, considering the importance that the resources of the cryosphere mean for the surrounding populations for drinking water supply, agriculture, hydropower, mining, etc.</p><p>In this work, measurements of atmospheric BC from August 2016 to November 2019, carried out in Portillo, Chilean Central Andes, in the "Nunatak" laboratory-refuge (32°50’43’’S, 70°07’47’’W, 3000 m.a.s.l) are presented. This site, located in the highest altitude sector of the Andes mountain range, is very close to “Los Libertadores”, the border between Chile and Argentina. The road connecting both countries has a very high traffic density, with many passenger cars and trucks traveling in both directions. Due to weather, this route has a seasonal operating schedule. During the austral summer (September 1 - May 31) vehicular traffic is allowed 24 hours a day, while in winter (June 1 - August 31) traffic is allowed only from 8 am to 8 pm. Additionally, during heavy snowfalls, the access for vehicles is banned. To establish the impact of vehicular traffic on the atmospheric BC levels in the area, BC concentrations were continuously monitored by a Multi-Angle Absorption Photometer (MAAP) (Model 5012, Thermo). BC was measured in PM2.5, sampled on a glass filter tape an inlet air flow of 1.0 m<sup>3</sup> h<sup>−1</sup>. Measurements were based on the optical attenuation at a wavelength of 637 nm. Data were originally sampled in one-minute resolution, but hourly and monthly means were extracted for further analysis. Results showed a markedly seasonal profile. Summer months presented the highest levels of BC for all the studied years, when the max. values were observed during the night and early morning hours, reaching 2.1 µg m<sup>-3</sup>. In turn, during the day there were significant declines in BC concentrations, with min. BC values of 0.2 µg m<sup>-3</sup>. Conversely, for all the years studied, winter months had lower average BC values than the summer months, with a markedly different hourly profile, since the max. values (up to 1.7 µg m<sup>-3</sup>) were reached in noon and afternoon hours, while the min. values fell up to 0.1 µg m<sup>-3</sup> during night and early morning hours. Furthermore, BC concentration levels in Portillo were measured at an altitude where the main glaciers of central Andes are, showing the impact that BC could cause in the nearby glaciers. This marked seasonal pattern is in line with the traffic operational schedule above-mentioned, suggesting that in the study area, vehicular traffic is the main emission source of atmospheric BC. These findings are key pieces to identifying and implementing successful strategies for mitigation and adaptation on climate change.</p>

scholarly journals Integrated water resources management approach in mitigating the potential impacts of climate change on hydrology in Gurara reservoir catchment, Northwest Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 384 ◽  
pp. 355-361
Author(s):  
Ifie-emi Francis Oseke ◽  
Geophery Kwame Anornu ◽  
Kwaku Amaning Adjei ◽  
Martin Obada Eduvie
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Resources Management ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Management Approach ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Resources Management ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The strategies and actions in the management of African River Basins in a warming climate environment have been studied. Using the Gurara Reservoir Catchment in North-West Nigeria as a case study, summations were proposed using hypothetical climate scenarios considering the Global Climate Models prediction and linear trend of the data. Four (4) proposed scenarios of temperature increase (1 % and 2 %) coupled with a decrease in precipitation of (−5 % and −10 %) were combined and applied for the study area. The Water Evaluation and Planning Tool was used to model and evaluates the impact of the earth's rising temperature and declining rainfall on the hydrology and availability of water by investigating its resilience to climate change. Modelling results indicate a reduction in available water within the study area from 4.3 % to 3.5 % compared to the baseline with no climate change scenario, revealing the current water management strategy as not sustainable, uncoordinated, and resulting in overexploitation. The findings could assist in managing future water resources in the catchment by accentuating the need to put in place appropriate adaptation measures to foster resilience to climate change. Practically, it is pertinent to shape more effective policies and regulations within catchments for effective water resources management in reducing water shortage as well as achieving downstream water needs and power benefit in thefuture, while also allowing flexibility in the operation of a reservoir with the ultimate goal of adapting to climate change.

scholarly journals Estimating Sectoral Water Demand for Sindh Province of Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 39 (2) ◽  
pp. 398-406
Author(s):  
Heman Das Lohano ◽  
Fateh Muhammad Marri
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Environmental Flows ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Total Water ◽  
Water Requirements ◽  
Sindh Province ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Total Water Demand

Water resources in Sindh province of Pakistan are under significant pressure due to increasing and conflicting water demand from municipalities for domestic users, agriculture and industries, and requirements of environmental flows. Population growth and climate change are likely to pose serious challenges to households and economic sectors that depend on water. This study estimates the present water demand from municipalities, agriculture and industries, and its future projections by the year 2050 in Sindh. The study also evaluates the impact of climate change on sectoral water demand and assesses the water requirements for the environmental flows. The results show that presently the total water demand for these sectors in Sindh is 44.06 Million Acre Feet (MAF). Agriculture is the largest consumer of water, accounting for 95.24 percent of the total water demand. Municipal water demand accounts for 2.61 percent while industrial water demand accounts for 1.88 percent. The demand for water in these sectors is expected to rise by 10 percent from 2018 to 2050. Moreover, depending on climate change scenario, the total water demand in these three sectors is likely to rise by 16 to 25 percent from 2018 to 2050. In additions, water requirements for the environmental flows have been indicated as 10 MAF in the National Water Accord of 1991. The findings of this study call for policy measures and strategies for management of water resources in Sindh.

scholarly journals Rapid Climate Adaption Assessment (RCAA) of water supply and sanitation services in two coastal urban poor communities in Accra, Ghana

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1645-1660 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nikolaus Clemenz ◽  
Richard Boakye ◽  
Alison Parker
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Urban Poor ◽  
Service Providers ◽  
Solid Waste Management ◽  
Management Practice ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Water And Sanitation ◽  
Sanitation Services ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Poor Communities

Abstract This study assessed the impact of different hydrological scenarios on existing vulnerabilities of water and sanitation services in Chorkor and Shiabu, two coastal urban poor communities in Accra, Ghana. The hydrological scenarios were developed from the literature on climate change projections. This paper recommends adaptations for community members, service providers, and the municipality based on the impact assessment. Chorkor and Shiabu are vulnerable to an increase in rainfall because of the lack of adequate solid waste management and hydrological sound drains. Shiabu's topography and the indiscriminate sand mining along its beach make it vulnerable to an increase in sea level. Looking beyond Chorkor and Shiabu's community boundaries, the urban water utility which supplies water vendors in both communities may be severely impacted by a decrease in rainfall, which would lead to water scarcity and a shortage in hydroelectricity. Regardless of which climate change scenario emerges, many of the recommended adaptations are good water management practice, for example, increasing the number of household connections and reducing non-revenue water. Putting climate change high on the agenda has the potential to generate additional funding to help address Chorkor and Shiabu's water and sanitation problems, and climate-proof services for the future. However, the study method does not address the governance of these adaptations.

Understanding the impacts of climate change on high mountain practices: the case of the Mont Blanc massif through an interdisciplinary approach

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emmanuel Salim ◽  
Jacques Mourey ◽  
Ludovic Ravanel ◽  
Pierre-Alain Duvillard ◽  
Maëva Cathala ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Geographical Area ◽  
Interdisciplinary Approach ◽  
High Elevation ◽  
Western Alps ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Mont Blanc Massif

<p>The intensity of the current climate change has strong consequences on high mountain tourism activities. Winter activities are currently the most studied (ski industry). However, the consequences of environmental changes are also strong in summer, as geomorphological processes are enhanced at high elevation. The Mont Blanc Massif (Western Alps) is a particularly favourable terrain for the development of research about these processes. Emblematic high summits (28 of the 82 peaks > 4000 m of the Alps), dozens of glaciers, strongly developed tourism with summer/winter equivalence, active mountaineering practice, etc. all contribute to the interest of studying this geographical area. A lot of work has been carried out on glaciological and geomorphological issues. These studies, which deal with "physical" impacts of the climate change on the high mountains, are also supplemented by studies of their consequences on human societies, as its impacts on practices such as mountaineering or glacier tourism. Risk-related issues are also taken into account with, for example, the stability of infrastructure (huts, ski lifts) or the impact of glacial shrinkage on the formation of new and potentially hazardous lakes. Accordingly, the aims of our presentation are to show the extent of the research developed on climate change in the Mont Blanc massif and how social and environmental sciences are interlinked to provide a holistic vision of the issues of this territory. As these experiments are not exactly interdisciplinary experiments, this presentation also aims to discuss the points that need to be further developed in order to promote inter- and trans-disciplinary research.</p>

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