scholarly journals Assessment of parameters and distribution of extremely heavy-rainfall events that occur several times per year

2019 ◽  
Vol 46 (4) ◽  
pp. 438-446
Author(s):  
D. E. Klimenko ◽  
E. S. Cherepanova ◽  
A. Yu. Kuzminykh
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Ural Mountains ◽  
Reliable Determination ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Use Of Data ◽  
Storm Rainfall ◽  
Short Time ◽  
Heavy Rainfall Events

Applied analyses of a number of datasets containing several highwater-forming storm rainfall events (intense rain for short time periods) per year are examined. The use of data containing several events per year is demonstrated as justified for reliable determination of statistical properties of time series derived from short observation periods. The statistics of time series containing one to several events per year in the Ural Mountains are shown to be well correlated with the frequency of the observed events. Recommendations for recalculation of the time-series statistics containing several events per year versus statistics for one event per year were developed, and a brief comparative analysis of the methods used in Russia is provided.

scholarly journals Effect of Heavy Rainfall Events on the Dry Matter Yield Trend of Whole Crop Maize (Zea mays L.)

Agriculture ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 75 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kim ◽  
Chemere ◽  
Sung
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Zea Mays ◽  
Dry Matter ◽  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Zea Mays L ◽  
Republic Of Korea ◽  
Dry Matter Yield ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
One Year ◽  
Heavy Rainfall Events

The objective of this study was to detect the historical dry matter yield (DMY) trend and to evaluate the effects of heavy rainfall events on the observed DMY trend of whole crop maize (WCM, Zea mays L.) using time-series analysis in Suwon, Republic of Korea. The climatic variables corresponding to the seeding to harvesting period, including the growing degree days, mean temperature, etc., of WCM along with the DMY data (n = 543) during 1982–2011, were used in the analysis. The DMY trend was detected using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with the explanatory variables (ARIMAX) form of time-series trend analysis. The optimal DMY model was found to be ARIMAX (1, 1, 1), indicating that the DMY trend follows the mean DMY of the preceding one year and the residual of the preceding one year with an integration level of 1. Furthermore, the SHGDD and SHHR were determined to be the main variables responsible for the observed trend in the DMY of WCM. During heavy rainfall events, the DMY was found to be decreasing by 4745.27 kg/ha (p < 0.01). Our analysis also revealed that both the intensity and frequency of heavy rainfall events have been increasing since 2005. The forecasted DMY indicates the potential decrease, which is expected to be 11,607 kg/ha by 2045. This study provided us evidence for the correlation between the DMY and heavy rainfall events that opens the way to provide solutions for challenges that summer forage crops face in the Republic of Korea.

scholarly journals 2DVD Data Revisited: Multifractal Insights into Cuts of the Spatiotemporal Rainfall Process

2015 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 548-562 ◽  
Author(s):  
Auguste Gires ◽  
Ioulia Tchiguirinskaia ◽  
Daniel Schertzer ◽  
Alexis Berne
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Resolution Time ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Measuring Device ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Heavy Rainfall Events ◽  
Very High

Abstract Data collected during four heavy rainfall events that occurred in Ardèche (France) with the help of a 2D video disdrometer (2DVD) are used to investigate the structure of the raindrop distribution in both space and time. A first type of analysis is based on the reconstruction of 36-m-height vertical rainfall columns above the measuring device. This reconstruction is obtained with the help of a ballistic hypothesis applied to 1-ms time step series. The corresponding snapshots are analyzed with the help of universal multifractals. For comparison, a similar analysis is performed on the time series with 1-ms time steps, as well as on time series of accumulation maps of N consecutive recorded drops (therefore with variable time steps). It turns out that the drop distribution exhibits a good scaling behavior in the range 0.5–36 m during the heaviest portion of the events, confirming the lack of empirical evidence of the widely used homogenous assumption for drop distribution. For smaller scales, drop positions seem to be homogeneously distributed. The notion of multifractal singularity is well illustrated by the very high-resolution time series.

Placing heavy rainfall events in context using long time series: An example from the North York Moors

Weather ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 65 (4) ◽  
pp. 88-94 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan Hopkins ◽  
Jeff Warburton ◽  
Tim Burt
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Long Time Series ◽  
The North ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Heavy Rainfall Events

scholarly journals Extreme Floods in the Eastern Part of Europe: Large-Scale Drivers and Associated Impacts

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 1122
Author(s):  
Monica Ionita ◽  
Viorica Nagavciuc
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Vapor Transport ◽  
Water Vapor Transport ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Catchment Areas ◽  
Large Scale Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Heavy Rainfall Events

The role of the large-scale atmospheric circulation in producing heavy rainfall events and floods in the eastern part of Europe, with a special focus on the Siret and Prut catchment areas (Romania), is analyzed in this study. Moreover, a detailed analysis of the socio-economic impacts of the most extreme flood events (e.g., July 2008, June–July 2010, and June 2020) is given. Analysis of the largest flood events indicates that the flood peaks have been preceded up to 6 days in advance by intrusions of high Potential Vorticity (PV) anomalies toward the southeastern part of Europe, persistent cut-off lows over the analyzed region, and increased water vapor transport over the catchment areas of Siret and Prut Rivers. The vertically integrated water vapor transport prior to the flood peak exceeds 300 kg m−1 s−1, leading to heavy rainfall events. We also show that the implementation of the Flood Management Plan in Romania had positive results during the 2020 flood event compared with the other flood events, when the authorities took several precaution measurements that mitigated in a better way the socio-economic impact and risks of the flood event. The results presented in this study offer new insights regarding the importance of large-scale atmospheric circulation and water vapor transport as drivers of extreme flooding in the eastern part of Europe and could lead to a better flood forecast and flood risk management.

scholarly journals Mesoscale Analysis of Heavy Rainfall Episodes from SoWMEX/TiMREX

2012 ◽  
Vol 69 (2) ◽  
pp. 521-537 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher A. Davis ◽  
Wen-Chau Lee
Keyword(s):  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Southwest Monsoon ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Mesoscale Analysis ◽  
Mesoscale Structure ◽  
Profound Influence ◽  
Moist Condition ◽  
Virtual Temperature ◽  
Convection Initiation ◽  
Heavy Rainfall Events

Abstract The authors analyze the mesoscale structure accompanying two multiday periods of heavy rainfall during the Southwest Monsoon Experiment and the Terrain-Induced Mesoscale Rainfall Experiment conducted over and near Taiwan during May and June 2008. Each period is about 5–6 days long with episodic heavy rainfall events within. These events are shown to correspond primarily to periods when well-defined frontal boundaries are established near the coast. The boundaries are typically 1 km deep or less and feature contrasts of virtual temperature of only 2°–3°C. Yet, owing to the extremely moist condition of the upstream conditionally unstable air, these boundaries appear to exert a profound influence on convection initiation or intensification near the coast. Furthermore, the boundaries, once established, are long lived, possibly reinforced through cool downdrafts and prolonged by the absence of diurnal heating over land in generally cloudy conditions. These boundaries are linked phenomenologically with coastal fronts that occur at higher latitudes.

scholarly journals An Improved Weighting Method of Time-Lag-Ensemble Averaging for Hourly Precipitation Forecasts and Its Application in a Typhoon-Induced Heavy Rainfall Event

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 875
Author(s):  
Li Zhou ◽  
Lin Xu ◽  
Mingcai Lan ◽  
Jingjing Chen
Keyword(s):  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Probability Of Detection ◽  
Precipitation Forecast ◽  
Ensemble Averaging ◽  
Weighting Method ◽  
Prediction Ability ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Hourly Precipitation ◽  
Heavy Rainfall Events

Heavy rainfall events often cause great societal and economic impacts. The prediction ability of traditional extrapolation techniques decreases rapidly with the increase in the lead time. Moreover, deficiencies of high-resolution numerical models and high-frequency data assimilation will increase the prediction uncertainty. To address these shortcomings, based on the hourly precipitation prediction of Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System-Cycle of Hourly Assimilation and Forecast (GRAPES-CHAF) and Shanghai Meteorological Service-WRF ADAS Rapid Refresh System (SMS-WARR), we present an improved weighting method of time-lag-ensemble averaging for hourly precipitation forecast which gives more weight to heavy rainfall and can quickly select the optimal ensemble members for forecasting. In addition, by using the cross-magnitude weight (CMW) method, mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE) and correlation coefficient (CC), the verification results of hourly precipitation forecast for next six hours in Hunan Province during the 2019 typhoon Bailu case and heavy rainfall events from April to September in 2020 show that the revised forecast method can more accurately capture the characteristics of the hourly short-range precipitation forecast and improve the forecast accuracy and the probability of detection of heavy rainfall.

Diverse synoptic weather patterns of warm-season heavy rainfall events in South Korea

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chanil Park ◽  
Seok-Woo Son ◽  
Joowan Kim ◽  
Eun-Chul Chang ◽  
Jung-Hoon Kim ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Pacific ◽  
Moisture Transport ◽  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Weather Patterns ◽  
Synoptic Weather ◽  
Heavy Rainfall Events

AbstractThis study identifies diverse synoptic weather patterns of warm-season heavy rainfall events (HREs) in South Korea. The HREs not directly connected to tropical cyclones (TCs) (81.1%) are typically associated with a midlatitude cyclone from eastern China, the expanded North Pacific high and strong southwesterly moisture transport in between. They are frequent both in the first (early summer) and second rainy periods (late summer) with impacts on the south coast and west of the mountainous region. In contrast, the HREs resulting from TCs (18.9%) are caused by the synergetic interaction between the TC and meandering midlatitude flow, especially in the second rainy period. The strong south-southeasterly moisture transport makes the southern and eastern coastal regions prone to the TC-driven HREs. By applying a self-organizing map algorithm to the non-TC HREs, their surface weather patterns are further classified into six clusters. Clusters 1 and 3 exhibit frontal boundary between the low and high with differing relative strengths. Clusters 2 and 5 feature an extratropical cyclone migrating from eastern China under different background sea-level pressure patterns. Cluster 4 is characterized by the expanded North Pacific high with no organized negative sea-level pressure anomaly, and cluster 6 displays a development of a moisture pathway between the continental and oceanic highs. Each cluster exhibits a distinct spatio-temporal occurrence distribution. The result provides useful guidance for predicting the HREs by depicting important factors to be differently considered depending on their synoptic categorization.

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