scholarly journals Climatic indicators regarding the rest period of sour cherry

2010 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Ladányi ◽  
Sz. Persely ◽  
J. Nyéki ◽  
T. Szabó ◽  
M. Soltész ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Rest Period ◽  
Sour Cherry ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Maximum Length ◽  
Future Expectations ◽  
The Future ◽  
Fruit Growing ◽  
The One

Sour cherry production in the world is increasing gradually. Profitable production, i.e. yield, depends largely on weather conditions. If Hungary wishes to keep up with the most successful countries, attention should be paid to the weather during the dormancy period, being definitely decisive from the points of view of quality as well as quantity. In order to predict the expected risk factors, characterisation of the most important weather parameters is necessary. For that purpose, the database of the Institute of Research and Extension Service for Fruit Growing at Újfehértó Ltd. has been utilised. Records of weather conditions were collected throughout the period 1984-2005, i.e. daily minimum, maximum and mean temperatures (°C), and phenological diary of sour cherry varieties ’Újfehértói fürtös’, ’Kántorjánosi’ and ’Debreceni bôtermô’. For the future expectations study we have used the RegCM3.1 regional climate model with 10 km resolution. Data of 4 indicators have been traced: Average temperatures, Number of days without frost, Maximum length of periods without frost, Maximum length of frosty period. On the one hand, we surveyed the changes; on the other hand, estimates have been attempted for the future changes expected during the following decades.

scholarly journals Climatic indicator analysis of blooming time for sour cherries

2010 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Ladányi ◽  
Sz. Persely ◽  
T. Szabó ◽  
Z. Szabó ◽  
M. Soltész ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sour Cherry ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Absolute Minimum ◽  
The Future ◽  
Fruit Growing ◽  
Indicator Analysis ◽  
Points Of View ◽  
Maximum Temperatures ◽  
The One ◽  
Successful Production

County Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg produces more than the half of the total sour cherry grown in Hungary. Successful production, i.e. yield, depends largely on weather conditions. Most attention should be paid to the weather during the blooming period, being most decisive from the points of view of quality as well as quantity. In order to predict yields expected, the characterisation of the most important weather parameters is necessary. For that purpose, the database of the Institute of Research and Extension Service for Fruit Growing at Újfehértó Ltd. has been utilised. Records of weather conditions were collected throughout the period 1984-2005, i.e. daily minimum, maximum and mean temperatures (°C), precipitation (mm), and phonological diary of sour cherry varieties ’Újfehértói fürtös’, ’Kántorjánosi’ and ’Debreceni bôtermô’. Data of 7 indicators have been traced: number of frosty days, the absolute minimum temperatures, means of minimum temperatures, number of days when daily means were above 10°C, means of maximum temperatures, number of days without precipitation, and number of days when precipitation was more than 5 mm. On the one hand, we surveyed the changes; on the other hand, estimates have been attempted for the future changes expected during the following decades. The indicators being associated with certain risky events may serve for the prediction of the future recommendations to prevent damages.

Future Extreme Climates Projection over Huang-Huai-Hai Region of China

2014 ◽  
Vol 955-959 ◽  
pp. 3887-3892 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huang He Gu ◽  
Zhong Bo Yu ◽  
Ji Gan Wang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Changes ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Heavy Rain ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Huai River ◽  
The Future

This study projects the future extreme climate changes over Huang-Huai-Hai (3H) region in China using a regional climate model (RegCM4). The RegCM4 performs well in “current” climate (1970-1999) simulations by compared with the available surface station data, focusing on near-surface air temperature and precipitation. Future climate changes are evaluated based on experiments driven by European-Hamburg general climate model (ECHAM5) in A1B future scenario (2070-2099). The results show that the annual temperature increase about 3.4 °C-4.2 °C and the annual precipitation increase about 5-15% in most of 3H region at the end of 21st century. The model predicts a generally less frost days, longer growing season, more hot days, no obvious change in heat wave duration index, larger maximum five-day rainfall, more heavy rain days, and larger daily rainfall intensity. The results indicate a higher risk of floods in the future warmer climate. In addition, the consecutive dry days in Huai River Basin will increase, indicating more serve drought and floods conditions in this region.

The effect of climate change on urban drainage: an evaluation based on regional climate model simulations

2006 ◽  
Vol 54 (6-7) ◽  
pp. 9-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Grum ◽  
A.T. Jørgensen ◽  
R.M. Johansen ◽  
J.J. Linde
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Urban Drainage ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Rainfall Extremes ◽  
The Future ◽  
Precipitation Events

That we are in a period of extraordinary rates of climate change is today evident. These climate changes are likely to impact local weather conditions with direct impacts on precipitation patterns and urban drainage. In recent years several studies have focused on revealing the nature, extent and consequences of climate change on urban drainage and urban runoff pollution issues. This study uses predictions from a regional climate model to look at the effects of climate change on extreme precipitation events. Results are presented in terms of point rainfall extremes. The analysis involves three steps: Firstly, hourly rainfall intensities from 16 point rain gauges are averaged to create a rain gauge equivalent intensity for a 25 × 25 km square corresponding to one grid cell in the climate model. Secondly, the differences between present and future in the climate model is used to project the hourly extreme statistics of the rain gauge surface into the future. Thirdly, the future extremes of the square surface area are downscaled to give point rainfall extremes of the future. The results and conclusions rely heavily on the regional model's suitability in describing extremes at time-scales relevant to urban drainage. However, in spite of these uncertainties, and others raised in the discussion, the tendency is clear: extreme precipitation events effecting urban drainage and causing flooding will become more frequent as a result of climate change.

scholarly journals Impacts of 1.5 and 2.0 °C Global Warming on Water Balance Components over Senegal in West Africa

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 712
Author(s):  
Mamadou Lamine Mbaye ◽  
Mouhamadou Bamba Sylla ◽  
Moustapha Tall
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
West Africa ◽  
Water Deficit ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Water Balance Components ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
The Future ◽  
Annual Water

This study assesses the changes in precipitation (P) and in evapotranspiration (ET) under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming levels (GWLs) over Senegal in West Africa. A set of twenty Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations within the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) following the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 emission scenario is used. Annual and seasonal changes are computed between climate simulations under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming, with respect to 0.5 °C warming, compared to pre-industrial levels. The results show that annual precipitation is likely to decrease under both magnitudes of warming; this decrease is also found during the main rainy season (July, August, September) only and is more pronounced under 2 °C warming. All reference evapotranspiration calculations, from Penman, Hamon, and Hargreaves formulations, show an increase in the future under the two GWLs, except annual Penman evapotranspiration under the 1.5 °C warming scenario. Furthermore, seasonal and annual water balances (P-ET) generally exhibit a water deficit. This water deficit (up to 180 mm) is more substantial with Penman and Hamon under 2 °C. In addition, analyses of changes in extreme precipitation reveal an increase in dry spells and a decrease in the number of wet days. However, Senegal may face a slight increase in very wet days (95th percentile), extremely wet days (99th), and rainfall intensity in the coming decades. Therefore, in the future, Senegal may experience a decline in precipitation, an increase of evapotranspiration, and a slight increase in heavy rainfall. Such changes could have serious consequences (e.g., drought, flood, etc.) for socioeconomic activities. Thus, strong governmental politics are needed to restrict the global mean temperature to avoid irreversible negative climate change impacts over the country. The findings of this study have contributed to a better understanding of local patterns of the Senegal hydroclimate under the two considered global warming scenarios.

scholarly journals Regionalization of Climate Change Simulations over the Eastern Mediterranean

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (8) ◽  
pp. 1944-1961 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bariş Önol ◽  
Fredrick H. M. Semazzi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Temperature Increase ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Change Projections ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
The Future

Abstract In this study, the potential role of global warming in modulating the future climate over the eastern Mediterranean (EM) region has been investigated. The primary vehicle of this investigation is the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model version 3 (ICTP-RegCM3), which was used to downscale the present and future climate scenario simulations generated by the NASA’s finite-volume GCM (fvGCM). The present-day (1961–90; RF) simulations and the future climate change projections (2071–2100; A2) are based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. During the Northern Hemispheric winter season, the general increase in precipitation over the northern sector of the EM region is present both in the fvGCM and RegCM3 model simulations. The regional model simulations reveal a significant increase (10%–50%) in winter precipitation over the Carpathian Mountains and along the east coast of the Black Sea, over the Kackar Mountains, and over the Caucasus Mountains. The large decrease in precipitation over the southeastern Turkey region that recharges the Euphrates and Tigris River basins could become a major source of concern for the countries downstream of this region. The model results also indicate that the autumn rains, which are primarily confined over Turkey for the current climate, will expand into Syria and Iraq in the future, which is consistent with the corresponding changes in the circulation pattern. The climate change over EM tends to manifest itself in terms of the modulation of North Atlantic Oscillation. During summer, temperature increase is as large as 7°C over the Balkan countries while changes for the rest of the region are in the range of 3°–4°C. Overall the temperature increase in summer is much greater than the corresponding changes during winter. Presentation of the climate change projections in terms of individual country averages is highly advantageous for the practical interpretation of the results. The consistence of the country averages for the RF RegCM3 projections with the corresponding averaged station data is compelling evidence of the added value of regional climate model downscaling.

Decomposition of Future Moisture Flux Changes over the Tibetan Plateau Projected by Global and Regional Climate Models

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (20) ◽  
pp. 7037-7053
Author(s):  
Hongwen Zhang ◽  
Yanhong Gao ◽  
Jianwei Xu ◽  
Yu Xu ◽  
Yingsha Jiang
Keyword(s):  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Moisture Flux ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Dynamic Component ◽  
Coarse Resolution ◽  
The Future

Abstract To meet the requirement of high-resolution datasets for many applications, a dynamical downscaling approach using a regional climate model (the WRF Model) driven by a global climate model (CCSM4) has been adopted. This study focuses on projections of future moisture flux changes over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). First, the downscaling results for the historical period (1980–2005) are evaluated for precipitation P, evaporation E, and precipitation minus evaporation P − E against Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) data. The mechanism of P − E changes is analyzed by decomposition into dynamic, thermodynamic, and transient eddy components. Whether the historical period changes and mechanisms continue into the future (2010–2100) is investigated using the WRF and CCSM model projections under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Compared with coarse-resolution forcing, downscaling was found to better reproduce the historical spatial patterns and seasonal mean of annual average P, E, and P − E over the TP. WRF projects a diverse spatial variation of P − E changes, with an increase in the northern TP and a decrease in the southern TP, compared with the uniform increase in CCSM. The dynamic component dominates P − E changes for the historical period in both the CCSM and WRF projections. In the future, however, the thermodynamic component in CCSM dominates P − E changes under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 from the near-term (2010–39) to the long-term (2070–99) future. Unlike the CCSM projections, the WRF projections reproduce the mechanism seen in the historical period—that is, the dynamic component dominates P − E changes. Furthermore, future P − E changes in the dynamical downscaling are less sensitive to warming than its coarse-resolution forcing.

scholarly journals Quantification of the Expected Changes in Annual Maximum Daily Precipitation Quantiles under Climate Change in the Iberian Peninsula

Proceedings ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos Garijo ◽  
Luis Mediero
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Control Period ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
The Future

Climate model projections can be used to assess the expected behaviour of extreme precipitations in the future due to climate change. The European part of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscalling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX) provides precipitation projections for the future under various representative concentration pathways (RCPs) through regionalised Global Climate Model (GCM) outputs by a set of Regional Climate Models (RCMs). In this work, 12 combinations of GCM and RCM under two scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) supplied by the EURO-CORDEX are analysed for the Iberian Peninsula. Precipitation quantiles for a set of probabilities of non-exceedance are estimated by using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution and L-moments. Precipitation quantiles expected in the future are compared with the precipitation quantiles in the control period for each climate model. An approach based on Monte Carlo simulations is developed in order to assess the uncertainty from the climate model projections. Expected changes in the future are compared with the sampling uncertainty in the control period. Thus, statistically significant changes are identified. The higher the significance threshold, the fewer cells with significant changes are identified. Consequently, a set of maps are obtained in order to assist the decision-making process in subsequent climate change studies.

Dependence of benefits of convection permitting models on large-scale conditions

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Danijel Belusic ◽  
Petter Lind ◽  
Oskar Landgren ◽  
Dominic Matte ◽  
Rasmus Anker Pedersen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Rapid Change ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Summer Precipitation ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Special Focus

<p>Current literature strongly indicates large benefits of convection permitting models for subdaily summer precipitation extremes. There has been less insight about other variables, seasons and weather conditions. We examine new climate simulations over the Nordic region, performed with the HCLIM38 regional climate model at both convection permitting and coarser scales, searching for benefits of using convection permitting resolutions. The Nordic climate is influenced by the North Atlantic storm track and characterised by large seasonal contrasts in temperature and precipitation. It is also in rapid change, most notably in the winter season when feedback processes involving retreating snow and ice lead to larger warming than in many other regions. This makes the area an ideal testbed for regional climate models. We explore the effects of higher resolution and better reproduction of convection on various aspects of the climate, such as snow in the mountains, coastal and other thermal circulations, convective storms and precipitation with a special focus on extreme events. We investigate how the benefits of convection permitting models change with different variables and seasons, and also their sensitivity to different circulation regimes.</p>

scholarly journals Spatio-temporal trends of hydrological components: the case of the Tafna basin (northwestern Algeria)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amina Mami ◽  
Djilali Yebdri ◽  
Sabine Sauvage ◽  
Mélanie Raimonet ◽  
José Miguel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
The Future

Abstract Climate change is expected to increase in the future in the Mediterranean region, including Algeria. The Tafna basin, vulnerable to drought, is one of the most important catchments ensuring water self-sufficiency in northwestern Algeria. The objective of this study is to estimate the evolution of hydrological components of the Tafna basin, throughout 2020–2099, comparing to the period 1981–2000. The SWAT model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), calibrated and validated on the Tafna basin with good Nash at the outlet 0.82, is applied to analyze the spatial and temporal evolution of hydrological components, over the basin throughout 2020–2099. The application is produced using a precipitation and temperature minimum/maximum of an ensemble of climate model outputs obtained from a combination of eight global climate models and two regional climate models of Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment project. The results of this study show that the decrease of precipitation in January, on average −25%, ranged between −5% and −44% in the future. This diminution affects all of the water components and fluxes of a watershed, namely, in descending order of impact: the river discharge causing a decrease −36%, the soil water available −31%, the evapotranspiration −30%, and the lateral flow −29%.

Simulation-based indices for a climate-resilient agriculture - insights from ADAPTER

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastian Bathiany ◽  
Diana Rechid ◽  
Susanne Pfeifer ◽  
Juliane El Zohbi ◽  
Klaus Goergen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Elevated Temperatures ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Public Attention ◽  
Compound Events ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
The Individual

<p>Agriculture is among the sectors that are most vulnerable to extreme weather conditions and climate change. In Germany, the subsequent dry and hot summers 2018, 2019, and 2020 have brought this into the focus of public attention. Agricultural actors like farmers, advisors or companies are concerned with such interannual variability and extremes. Yet, it often remains unclear what long-term adaptation options are most suitable in the context of climate change, mainly because climate projections have uncertainties and are usually not tailored to meet requirements, measures and scales of the individual practicioners. In the ADAPTER project, we explore regional and local change on the weather- and climate-related time scales and together with stakeholders (administration, plant breeders, educators, agricultural advisors), we co-design tailored climate change indices and usable products.</p><p>In this contribution, we provide a snapshot view of our stakeholders' requirements regarding information about climate change over the next decades. We then focus on the analysis of three groups of indices based on 85 regional climate model simulations from Coordinated Downscaling Experiments over Europe - EURO-CORDEX: (i) changes in daily temperature variability, (ii) occurrence of agricultural droughts in summer, (iii) compound events of combined dryness and elevated temperatures during the same events. We show that these user-oriented, newly constructed indices can capture relevant changes during important phenological development states of typical crops. Finally, we discuss first implications of our findings for different adaptation strategies in Mid-Europe, such as alternating crop rotations, irrigation strategies or plant breeding. The analysis products presented are interactively and publicly available through a product platform (www.adapter-projekt.de) for agricultural stakeholders.</p>

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