Chasing Sustainability

2015 ◽  
Vol 2531 (1) ◽  
pp. 83-92 ◽  
Author(s):  
Myriam Langlois ◽  
Dea van Lierop ◽  
Rania A. Wasfi ◽  
Ahmed M. El-Geneidy
Keyword(s):  
Travel Behavior ◽  
Multinomial Logistic Regression ◽  
Motor Vehicles ◽  
Mode Switching ◽  
Transit Oriented Development ◽  
Travel Mode ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Shopping Trips ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
Automobile Use

One of the solutions suggested for mitigating the detrimental effect of motor vehicles on society is to implement transit-oriented development (TOD). This type of development is intended to reduce automobile use and urban sprawl as well as to provide communities with more socially, environmentally, and economically sustainable neighborhoods that offer a variety of mobility choices. This study attempted to find out whether new residents adopted more sustainable modes of transportation after their relocation to a TOD. The analysis determined which factors influenced travel mode switching decisions by specifying a multilevel multinomial logistic regression model. Data for the analysis were drawn from a travel behavior survey conducted on residents in seven North American TODs in 2013. The results showed that newcomers adopted more sustainable travel modes for amenities and leisure trips after they relocated to a TOD but that they were less likely to do so for work and shopping trips. To encourage more sustainable travel modes, the study findings suggested that transit incentives coupled with workplace parking charges needed to be considered. Factors that were found to increase the probability that new TOD residents would switch to a more sustainable mode of transportation included their awareness of the environmental impact of each travel mode, the ease with which it was possible to walk through the neighborhood and to various destinations, and the proximity to transit stops. However, larger household size, homeownership, and the addition of a new car had negative impacts. The findings provided new insights into TOD planning and its link to travel behavior; these insights could benefit planners, engineers, and policy makers who have adopted the TOD approach to development with the goal of mitigating car usage.

scholarly journals Modeling the Joint Choice Decisions on Urban Shopping Destination and Travel-to-Shop Mode: A Comparative Study of Different Structures

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chuan Ding ◽  
Binglei Xie ◽  
Yaowu Wang ◽  
Yaoyu Lin
Keyword(s):  
Travel Behavior ◽  
Mode Switching ◽  
Nested Logit ◽  
Model Structure ◽  
Travel Mode ◽  
Downtown Area ◽  
Mnl Model ◽  
Car Travel ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Mode A

The joint choice of shopping destination and travel-to-shop mode in downtown area is described by making use of the cross-nested logit (CNL) model structure that allows for potential interalternative correlation along the both choice dimensions. Meanwhile, the traditional multinomial logit (MNL) model and nested logit (NL) model are also formulated, respectively. This study uses the data collected in the downtown areas of Maryland-Washington, D.C. region, for shopping trips, considering household, individual, land use, and travel related characteristics. The results of the model reveal the significant influencing factors on joint choice travel behavior between shopping destination and travel mode. A comparison of the different models shows that the proposed CNL model structure offers significant improvements in capturing unobserved correlations between alternatives over MNL model and NL model. Moreover, a Monte Carlo simulation for a group of scenarios assuming that there is an increase in parking fees in downtown area is undertaken to examine the impact of a change in car travel cost on the joint choice of shopping destination and travel mode switching. The results are expected to give a better understanding on the shopping travel behavior.

scholarly journals Influence of Pollutants from Transport on Life Expectancy in the EU Countries

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 209-217
Author(s):  
Hana Rozehnalová ◽  
◽  
Michal Mádr ◽  
Lucie Formanová ◽  
Břetislav Andrlík
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Human Health ◽  
Air Pollutants ◽  
Road Transport ◽  
Motor Vehicles ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Eu Countries ◽  
Sulphur Oxides ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
The Eu

Road transport has become the major source of environmental pollution and it is also one of the biggest environmental risks in the EU countries. Good air quality is very important for population as pollutants have negative impacts on human health. The paper deals with relationship between air pollutants generated by road transport and the life expectancy in EU countries. At the beginning of the paper the main pollutants from motor vehicles are described and impact on human health is summarized too. We use regression analysis of panel data to analyse the relationship between chosen air pollutants and life expectancy. Our results show negative impacts of nitrogen oxide and sulphur oxide, specifically reduction in life expectancy by 1.49 years for nitrogen oxides and 0.28 years for sulphur oxides with an increase of the pollutant by 1%. So according to our findings economic policy makers should focus primarily on the reduction of nitrogen and sulphur oxides.

scholarly journals Is Built Environment Associated with Travel Mode Choice in Developing Cities? Evidence from Hanoi

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (14) ◽  
pp. 5773
Author(s):  
Thi Mai Chi Nguyen ◽  
Hironori Kato ◽  
Le Binh Phan
Keyword(s):  
Built Environment ◽  
Travel Behavior ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Multinomial Logit Model ◽  
Spatial Aggregation ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Transit Oriented Development ◽  
Travel Mode ◽  
Aggregation Effect ◽  
Household Travel

This paper examines the association between the built environment (BE) and travel behavior in Hanoi, Vietnam. A multinomial logit model is used to analyze individuals’ choice of travel mode from a dataset collected via a questionnaire-based household travel survey in 2016 and the geospatial data of BE variables; the dataset contains 762 responses from local residents in ten districts of the Hanoi Metropolitan Area about their daily travel episodes. It also examines a spatial aggregation effect by comparing model performances among four buffering distances and ward-zones. The results showed that (1) a higher population density around an individual’s home is associated with more bus use and less motorbike and car use; (2) mixed land use around the home, average tax revenue near the home, and bus frequency at the workplace have positive relationships with bus ridership; (3) senior people, students, or unskilled laborers tend to use the bus; (4) the spatial aggregation bias significantly affects the estimation results; and (5) new immigrants tend to choose to reside in areas designed for automobile users. Finally, there are several policy implications for transit-oriented development (TOD) in Hanoi, including: (1) parking regulations and/or control strategies should be jointly incorporated into the Hanoi’s TOD policy; (2) Hanoi’s TOD policy should be carefully designed in terms of its scope of development site and type; and (3) a polycentric structure strategy only may not be sufficient for increasing public transit ridership.

scholarly journals Exploring the Mode Change Behavior of Park-and-Ride Users

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shahi Taphsir Islam ◽  
Zhiyuan Liu ◽  
Majid Sarvi ◽  
Ting Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Public Transport ◽  
Travel Behavior ◽  
Stated Preference ◽  
Multinomial Logistic Regression ◽  
Revealed Preference ◽  
Travel Mode ◽  
Mode Change ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Park And Ride ◽  
Change Behavior

This paper investigates the mode change behavior of park-and-ride (P&R) users, which is of considerable significance to analyze the effectiveness of P&R site on the commuters’ travel mode change as well as the increase of public transport mode share. Data from an intercept interview survey conducted at different P&R facilities in Metropolitan Melbourne is used. A questionnaire containing revealed preference (RP) and stated preference (SP) questions is used to interview the individuals who park at the facility and catch public transport to go to city. This study firstly aims to know the factors affecting current travel behavior using RP data and secondly to investigate the importance of the factors on influencing the commuters’ decision of travel mode choice using the SP data. The empirical models using multinomial logistic regression reveal that travel time taken by transit vehicle and transfer time at P&R stations are the primary factors affecting individuals’ decision on choosing public transport whereas parking fare is the additional factor affecting commuters’ choice of driving. Based on the results of this study, the effectiveness of P&R scheme on commuters’ travel mode change is evaluated which would be helpful to shed lights on the future construction of P&R sites.

scholarly journals How Urban Form Characteristics at Both Trip Ends Influence Mode Choice: Evidence from TOD vs. Non-TOD Zones of the Washington, D.C. Metropolitan Area

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 3403
Author(s):  
Arefeh Nasri ◽  
Lei Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Built Environment ◽  
Travel Behavior ◽  
Urban Form ◽  
Mode Choice ◽  
Discrete Choice Models ◽  
Sustainable Transportation ◽  
Lower Probability ◽  
Transit Oriented Development ◽  
Travel Mode ◽  
Travel Mode Choice

Understanding travel behavior and its relationship with built environment is crucial for sustainable transportation and land-use policy-making. This study provides additional insights into the linkage between the built environment and travel mode choice by looking at the built environment characteristics at both the trip origin and destination in the context of transit-oriented development (TOD). The objective of this research is to provide a better understanding of how travel mode choice is influenced by the built environment surrounding both trip end locations. Specifically, it investigates the effect of transit-oriented development policy and the way it affects people’s mode choice decisions. This is accomplished by developing discrete choice models and consideration of urban form characteristics at both trip ends. Our findings not only confirmed the important role the built environment plays in influencing mode choice, but also highlighted the influence of policies, such as TOD, at both trip end locations. Results suggest that the probability of choosing transit and non-motorized modes is higher for trips originating and ending in TOD areas. However, the magnitude of this TOD effect is larger at trip origin compared to destination. Higher residential and employment densities at both trips ends are also associated with lower probability of auto and higher probability of transit and non-motorized mode choices.

Accessibility and Intraurban Travel

1987 ◽  
Vol 19 (6) ◽  
pp. 735-748 ◽  
Author(s):  
S Hanson ◽  
M Schwab
Keyword(s):  
Travel Behavior ◽  
Activity Spaces ◽  
Household Travel Survey ◽  
Trip Frequency ◽  
Potential Activity ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Household Travel ◽  
Automobile Use ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Travel Distances

This paper contains an examination of the fundamental assumption underlying the use of accessibility indicators: that an individual's travel behavior is related to his or her location vis-à-vis the distribution of potential activity sites. First, the conceptual and measurement issues surrounding accessibility and its relationship to travel are reviewed; then, an access measure for individuals is formulated. Using data from the Uppsala (Sweden) Household Travel Survey and controlling for sex, automobile availability, and employment status, the authors explore the relationship between both home- and work-based accessibility and five aspects of an individual's travel: mode use, trip frequencies and travel distances for discretionary purposes, trip complexity, travel in conjunction with the journey to work, and size of the activity space. From the results it can be seen that although all of these travel characteristics are related to accessibility to some degree, the travel–accessibility relationship is not as strong as deductive formulations have implied. High accessibility levels are associated with higher proportions of travel by nonmotorized means, lower levels of automobile use, reduced travel distances for certain discretionary trip purposes, and smaller individual activity spaces. Furthermore, the density of activity sites around the workplace affects the distances travelled by employed people for discretionary purposes. Overall, accessibility level has a greater impact on mode use and travel distance than it does on discretionary trip frequency. This result was unexpected in light of the strong trip frequency–accessibility relationship posited frequently in the literature.

Αποτίμηση κινδύνων των ευρωπαϊκών τραπεζών και συστήματα έγκαιρης προειδοποίησης

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Παντελής Σταυρούλιας
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Discriminant Analysis ◽  
Cross Validation ◽  
Multinomial Logistic Regression ◽  
Classification Tree ◽  
Probit Regression ◽  
Macroprudential Policy ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Sample Testing

Οι έγκυρες προβλέψεις χρηματοοικονομικών κρίσεων διασφάλιζαν ανέκαθεν την σταθερότητα τόσο ολόκληρου του χρηματοοικονομικού οικοδομήματος γενικότερα, όσο και του τραπεζικού τομέα ειδικότερα. Με την παρούσα διατριβή επιτυγχάνεται η πρόβλεψη συστημικών τραπεζικών κρίσεων για χώρες της EE-14 αρκετά τρίμηνα προτού αυτές γίνουν αντιληπτές με την χρησιμοποίηση των πιο διαδεδομένων μεταβλητών (μακροοικονομικών, τραπεζικών και αγοράς) μέσω δύο προσεγγίσεων, της δυαδικής και της πολυεπίπεδης. Ακολουθώντας τη δυαδική προσέγγιση, εξάγονται μοντέλα ταξινόμησης με την εφαρμογή της Διακριτής Ανάλυσης (Discriminant Analysis), της Γραμμικής Παλινδρόμησης (Linear Regression), της Λογιστικής Παλινδρόμησης (Logistic Regression) και της Παλινδρόμησης Πιθανοομάδας (Probit Regression), για την έγκαιρη πρόβλεψη των κρίσεων -12 έως -7 τρίμηνα πριν την εμφάνισή τους. Επιπροσθέτως, συγκρίνεται η απόδοση της ανωτέρω ανάλυσης χρησιμοποιώντας τις νεότερες και πλέον υποσχόμενες μεθόδους του Δέντρου Ταξινόμησης (Classification Tree), του Τυχαίου Δάσους (Random Forest) και της C5. Ταυτόχρονα προτείνεται ένα νέο μέτρο επιλογής κατωφλίων και απόδοσης προσαρμογής (GoF) των μοντέλων πρόβλεψης και μια νέα συνδυαστική (combined) μέθοδος ταξινόμησης. Προκειμένου να διερευνηθεί η απόδοση της ανωτέρω ανάλυσης, χρησιμοποιείται ο εκτός του δείγματος έλεγχος (out-of-sample testing) με τη μέθοδο της ανά χώρα σταυρωτής επικύρωσης (country-blocked cross validation). Σύμφωνα με τη μέθοδο αυτή, πραγματοποιείται η ανάλυση και εξάγονται τα μοντέλα πρόβλεψης με τη χρήση των δεκατριών από τις δεκατέσσερις χώρες του δείγματος (in-sample), εφαρμόζονται τα εξαγόμενα μοντέλα για την δέκατη τέταρτη χώρα που είχε εξαιρεθεί από το αρχικό δείγμα (out-of-sample) και ελέγχονται τα αποτελέσματα πρόβλεψης με τα πραγματικά δεδομένα της χώρας αυτής. Η παραπάνω διαδικασία επαναλαμβάνεται δεκατέσσερις φορές, αφήνοντας δηλαδή κάθε φορά μια χώρα εκτός δείγματος και τελικά εξάγεται ο μέσος όρος των επαναλήψεων. Στην παρούσα διατριβή, και χρησιμοποιώντας τον εκτός του δείγματος έλεγχο, επιτυγχάνεται η κατά 82.4% σωστή ταξινόμηση (Ακρίβεια – Accuracy), 78.4% ποσοστό Αληθινών Θετικών (Τrue Ρositive Rate - TPR) και 80.6% ποσοστό Θετικής Τιμής Πρόβλεψης (Positive Predictive Value - PPV). Σύμφωνα με την πολυεπίπεδη προσέγγιση, διακρίνονται δύο επίπεδα-περίοδοι πρόβλεψης των Συστημικών Τραπεζικών Κρίσεων. Το πρώτο επίπεδο ονομάζεται έγκαιρη πρόβλεψη (early warning) και αφορά περίοδο -12 έως -7 τρίμηνα πριν την έλευση της κρίσης ενώ το δεύτερο επίπεδο ονομάζεται καθυστερημένη πρόβλεψη (late warning) και αφορά περίοδο -6 έως -1 τρίμηνα πριν την έλευση της κρίσης. Για την πολυεπίπεδη αυτή ταξινόμηση, γίνεται χρήση των Νευρωνικών Δικτύων (Neural Networks), της Πολυωνυμικής Λογιστικής Παλινδρόμησης (Multinomial Logistic Regression) και της Πολυεπίπεδης Γραμμικής Διακριτής Ανάλυσης (Multinomial Discriminant Analysis). Εφαρμόζοντας τον ίδιο εκτός του δείγματος έλεγχο με την πρώτη προσέγγιση επιτυγχάνεται η κατά 85.7% σωστή ταξινόμηση με την βέλτιστη μέθοδο που αποδεικνύεται ότι είναι η Πολυεπίπεδη Γραμμική Διακριτή Ανάλυση. Εφαρμόζοντας την ανωτέρω ανάλυση, οι ενδιαφερόμενοι φορείς άσκησης πολιτικής (policy makers) μπορούν να ανιχνεύσουν την ύπαρξης κρίσης σε βάθος χρόνου έως τριών ετών με τα προτεινόμενα μοντέλα, χρησιμοποιώντας μόνο δεδομένα που υπάρχουν ελεύθερα προσβάσιμα στο κοινό, ασκώντας με τον τρόπο αυτό την κατάλληλη ανά περίπτωση μακροπροληπτική πολιτική (macroprudential policy).

A Modeling Analysis of Impact from E-Hailing Service on Non-Work Travel Mode in Shanghai, China

2018 ◽  
Vol 2672 (47) ◽  
pp. 125-134 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiayu Zhong ◽  
Xin Ye ◽  
Ke Wang ◽  
Dongjin Li
Keyword(s):  
Travel Time ◽  
Travel Behavior ◽  
Choice Model ◽  
Mode Choice ◽  
Rapid Development ◽  
Influential Factors ◽  
Travel Mode ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Bus Travel Time ◽  
Vehicle Travel Time

With the rapid development of mobility services, e-hailing service have been highly prevalent and e-hailing travel has become a part of daily life in many cities in China. At the same time, travelers’ mode choice behaviors have been influenced to some degree by different factors, and in this paper, a web-based retrospective survey initially conducted in Shanghai, China is used to analyze the extent to which various factors are influencing mode choice behaviors. Then, a multinomial-logit-based mode choice model is developed to incorporate the e-hailing auto mode as a new travel mode for non-work trips. The developed model can help to identify influential factors and quantify their impact on mode choice probabilities. The developed model involves a variety of explanatory variables including e-hailing/taxi fare, bus travel time, rail station access/egress distance, trip distance, car in-vehicle travel time as well as travelers’ socioeconomic and demographic characteristics, etc. The model indicates that the e-hailing fare, travel companions and some travelers’ characteristics (e.g., age, income, etc.) are significant factors influencing the choice of e-hailing mode. The alternative-specific constant in the e-hailing utility equation is adjusted to match the observed market share of the e-hailing mode. Based on the developed model, elasticities of LOS attributes are computed and discussed. The research methods used in this paper have the potential to be applied to investigate travel behavior changes under the influence of emerging travel modes. The research findings can aid in evaluating policies to manage e-hailing services and improve their levels of services.

Joint-Choice Model for Destination and Travel Mode for Non-Grocery Shopping Trips

1983 ◽  
Vol 18 (0) ◽  
pp. 469-474
Author(s):  
Shoji Matsumoto ◽  
Seiichi Kumakura ◽  
Katsuaki Matsuoka
Keyword(s):  
Choice Model ◽  
Grocery Shopping ◽  
Travel Mode ◽  
Shopping Trips
Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document