Finding Best Model to Forecast Construction Duration of Road Tunnels with New Austrian Tunneling Method Using Bayesian Inference

2015 ◽  
Vol 2522 (1) ◽  
pp. 113-120 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seyedmohammadhossein Hosseinian ◽  
Kenneth F. Reinschmidt
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Bayesian Inference ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Project Managers ◽  
Past Performance ◽  
Highway Tunnel ◽  
Tunneling Method ◽  
Road Tunnels ◽  
Natm Tunnel ◽  
New Austrian Tunneling Method

Forecasting project final duration (i.e., time at completion) is crucial to project risk management and is always sought by project managers during the construction period. Because of a strong correlation between past and future performances in linear projects, past progress data are the best source of information to forecast final duration of this type of project, including tunneling projects constructed by the new Austrian tunneling method (NATM). Bayesian inference is a robust probabilistic approach that can provide accurate forecasts of final duration based on a project's past performance. However, results of research in this field have shown that selecting an appropriate model, which represents the unknown pattern of the project's actual progress well, is the most challenging and subjective part of this approach. Effective risk management necessitates looking for the best model that can forecast project final duration accurately and precisely, especially early in the project. This research was aimed at finding a best progress model for NATM tunneling projects by conducting Bayesian analysis on available data of a massive project, the Niayesh highway tunnel in Iran. The analysis showed that the dual Gompertz function (with flexible lower asymptote) was the most reliable model for this purpose. The results of this research bring advantages to the planning and risk management of NATM tunneling projects, which are discussed in this paper, and can be very useful for future NATM tunnel constructions.

scholarly journals THE CURRENT STATE OF PROJECT RISK ASSESSMENT AND EDUCATION NEEDS IN PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matej Masár ◽  
Mária Hudáková
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Project Managers ◽  
Project Risk Management ◽  
Project Risk ◽  
Qualitative And Quantitative ◽  
Current State ◽  
The World ◽  
Project Risks ◽  
Project Risk Assessment

Current trends show that education in the field of project risk management is a very actual topic. Long - term projects, which was realized in 2018, was mainly focused on R&D across the world. Short - term projects, was focused on innovation and improve manufacturing processes. Many projects failed because project managers did not manage project risks. Project managers have less knowledge and skills on how to effectively manage project risks, especially risks in the planning phase of projects. The main aim of this article is to analyze the current state of usage project risk assessment across the world, based on own empirical research, which was provided, by authors in 2018 and 2019 (mainly level of usage project risk management methods, experience and level of education). The research focused on analyzing the current state of project risk assessment among continents. The authors focused on the average level of use qualitative and quantitative project risk analysis by project managers, level of project risk management experience by project managers and complexity of learning in using of qualitative and quantitative project risk management methods and tools.  Some recommendation were established to educate project managers in the field of project risk management.

Fuzzy Rules for Risk Assessment and Contingency Estimation within COCOMO Software Project Planning Model

2014 ◽  
pp. 88-111 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ekananta Manalif ◽  
Luiz Fernando Capretz ◽  
Danny Ho
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Project Planning ◽  
Project Managers ◽  
Research Data ◽  
Software Project ◽  
Planning Model ◽  
Effort Estimation ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Project Risks

Software development can be considered to be the most uncertain project when compared to other projects due to uncertainty in the customer requirements, the complexity of the process, and the intangible nature of the product. In order to increase the chance of success in managing a software project, the project manager(s) must invest more time and effort in the project planning phase, which involves such primary and integrated activities as effort estimation and risk management, because the accuracy of the effort estimation is highly dependent on the size and number of project risks in a particular software project. However, as is common practice, these two activities are often disconnected from each other and project managers have come to consider such steps to be unreliable due to their lack of accuracy. This chapter introduces the Fuzzy-ExCOM Model, which is used for software project planning and is based on fuzzy technique. It has the capability to not only integrate the effort estimation and risk assessment activities but also to provide information about the estimated effort, the project risks, and the effort contingency allowance necessary to accommodate the identified risk. A validation of this model using the project’s research data shows that this new approach is capable of improving the existing COCOMO estimation performance.

Educating Project Managers to Deal With Project Risks

2018 ◽  
pp. 1606-1632
Author(s):  
Radu-Ioan Mogos ◽  
Constanta-Nicoleta Bodea ◽  
Stelian Stancu ◽  
Augustin Purnus ◽  
Maria-Iuliana Dascalu
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Project Management ◽  
Education And Training ◽  
Project Managers ◽  
Project Risk Management ◽  
Curriculum Management ◽  
Management Competencies ◽  
Project Risk ◽  
Project Risks ◽  
And Training

During the last years, the development of the project risk management competencies became a ubiquitous objective for education and training in project management due to the increasing constraints which companies face on the implementation of their projects. Alignment to the professional standards and usage of innovative methods in designing and delivery of instruction represent common requirements that education and training providers should consider and fulfill. The authors examine the main challenges in addressing project risk management subject in the education programmes and identify how these challenges could be dealt by using curriculum management systems. In order to implement the identified improvements, the authors propose an innovative architecture for a curriculum management system, which can be adopted by those universities interested in developing competencies-based programmes in project management. Some preliminary results are presented and discussed.

Fuzzy Rules for Risk Assessment and Contingency Estimation Within COCOMO Software Project Planning Model

2018 ◽  
pp. 771-797
Author(s):  
Ekananta Manalif ◽  
Luiz Fernando Capretz ◽  
Danny Ho
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Project Planning ◽  
Project Managers ◽  
Research Data ◽  
Software Project ◽  
Planning Model ◽  
Effort Estimation ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Project Risks

Software development can be considered to be the most uncertain project when compared to other projects due to uncertainty in the customer requirements, the complexity of the process, and the intangible nature of the product. In order to increase the chance of success in managing a software project, the project manager(s) must invest more time and effort in the project planning phase, which involves such primary and integrated activities as effort estimation and risk management, because the accuracy of the effort estimation is highly dependent on the size and number of project risks in a particular software project. However, as is common practice, these two activities are often disconnected from each other and project managers have come to consider such steps to be unreliable due to their lack of accuracy. This chapter introduces the Fuzzy-ExCOM Model, which is used for software project planning and is based on fuzzy technique. It has the capability to not only integrate the effort estimation and risk assessment activities but also to provide information about the estimated effort, the project risks, and the effort contingency allowance necessary to accommodate the identified risk. A validation of this model using the project's research data shows that this new approach is capable of improving the existing COCOMO estimation performance.

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