Robust Pricing of Transportation Networks under Uncertain Demand

2008 ◽  
Vol 2085 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-30 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lauren M. Gardner ◽  
Avinash Unnikrishnan ◽  
S. Travis Waller
Keyword(s):  
Demand Uncertainty ◽  
Travel Demand ◽  
Transportation Networks ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
User Equilibrium ◽  
Uncertain Demand ◽  
Optimal Pricing ◽  
Elastic Demand ◽  
Marginal Costs ◽  
Pricing Scheme

Traditionally, tolls on transportation networks are determined on the basis of a single value of travel demand, deterministic elastic demand relationships, or informal scenario analysis. However, since the demand on the network cannot be forecast perfectly, pricing may prove to be suboptimal when the realized value of demand deviates significantly from the planned value. Therefore, there is a need for a robust pricing scheme that accounts for demand uncertainty. Optimal pricing is examined through marginal costs in which origin-destination travel demand is a random variable to understand better the direct impact and sensitivity of the uncertainty. Three methods are evaluated for determining robust prices: inflation or deflation of the planning demand, averaging tolls from various planning demands, and genetic algorithms. The performance of these three methods is evaluated by analyzing user equilibrium for various future travel demand scenarios. From the results of the analysis, a more robust pricing scheme that accounts for variations in demand is developed.

scholarly journals BI-LEVEL PROGRAMMING MODEL AND ALGORITHMS FOR STOCHASTIC NETWORK WITH ELASTIC DEMAND

Transport ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 117-128 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiang Zhang ◽  
Hao Wang ◽  
Wei Wang
Keyword(s):  
Travel Demand ◽  
Programming Model ◽  
Choice Model ◽  
Consumer Surplus ◽  
User Equilibrium ◽  
Network Design Problem ◽  
Elastic Demand ◽  
Stochastic User Equilibrium ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Level Model

Based on a state-of-the-art review of the Road Network Design Problem (RNDP), this paper proposes a bi-level programming model for the RNDP as well as algorithms for it. In the lower level of the proposed model, the elastic-demand Stochastic User Equilibrium (SUE) model is adopted to coincide well with characteristics of users behavior, and additionally, the parameter calibration method for the model is developed based on the Logit path choice model. In the upper level of the proposed model, the consumer surplus is maximized to improve the social benefit of a network in consideration of the travel demand, the construction cost, the off-gas emissions and the saturation level. The algorithm for the lower-level model is developed based on the descent iteration method, Dijkstra’s algorithm and linear search technology. A modified Genetic Algorithm (GA) is developed as the algorithm for the whole bi-level model, which takes designed elitist selection operator, adaptive cross operator, mutation operator and niche technology into consideration. The proposed model and algorithms are applied to a numerical example. The results demonstrate the validity and efficiency of the model and algorithms, which shows a bright prospect of the application in RNDP.

scholarly journals Robust Evaluation for Transportation Network Capacity under Demand Uncertainty

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muqing Du ◽  
Xiaowei Jiang ◽  
Lin Cheng ◽  
Changjiang Zheng
Keyword(s):  
Demand Uncertainty ◽  
Travel Demand ◽  
Transportation Networks ◽  
Transportation Network ◽  
Network Capacity ◽  
Traffic Jam ◽  
Reserve Network ◽  
Bounded Set ◽  
Robust Model ◽  
And Performance

As more and more cities in worldwide are facing the problems of traffic jam, governments have been concerned about how to design transportation networks with adequate capacity to accommodate travel demands. To evaluate the capacity of a transportation system, the prescribed origin and destination (O-D) matrix for existing travel demand has been noticed to have a significant effect on the results of network capacity models. However, the exact data of the existing O-D demand are usually hard to be obtained in practice. Considering the fluctuation of the real travel demand in transportation networks, the existing travel demand is represented as uncertain parameters which are defined within a bounded set. Thus, a robust reserve network capacity (RRNC) model using min–max optimization is formulated based on the demand uncertainty. An effective heuristic approach utilizing cutting plane method and sensitivity analysis is proposed for the solution of the RRNC problem. Computational experiments and simulations are implemented to demonstrate the validity and performance of the proposed robust model. According to simulation experiments, it is showed that the link flow pattern from the robust solutions to network capacity problems can reveal the probability of high congestion for each link.

scholarly journals Bi-Criteria System Optimum Traffic Assignment in Networks With Continuous Value of Time

1970 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 119-125 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xin Wang ◽  
Hai-Jun Huang
Keyword(s):  
Flow Pattern ◽  
Equilibrium Model ◽  
Transportation Network ◽  
System Optimization ◽  
User Equilibrium ◽  
Value Of Time ◽  
Elastic Demand ◽  
System Optimum ◽  
Pricing Scheme ◽  
Objective Model

For an elastic demand transportation network with continuously distributed value of time, the system disutility can be measured either in time units or in cost units. The user equilibrium model and the system optimization model are each formulated in two different criteria. The conditions required for making the system optimum link flow pattern equivalent to the user equilibrium link flow pattern are derived. Furthermore, a bi-objective model has been developed which minimizes simultaneously the system travel time and the system travel cost. The existence of a pricing scheme with anonymous link tolls which can decentralize a Pareto system optimum into the user equilibrium has been investigated.

On the Equilibrium Uniqueness in Cournot Competition with Demand Uncertainty

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefanos Leonardos ◽  
Costis Melolidakis
Keyword(s):  
Failure Rate ◽  
Demand Uncertainty ◽  
Sufficient Conditions ◽  
Cournot Competition ◽  
Uncertain Demand ◽  
Cournot Model ◽  
Equilibrium Uniqueness ◽  
Residual Demand ◽  
Uniqueness Of Equilibrium ◽  
Additional Assumptions

AbstractWe revisit the linear Cournot model with uncertain demand that is studied in Lagerlöf (2006. “Equilibrium Uniqueness in a Cournot Model with Demand Uncertainty.” The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics 6, no. 1. (Topics), Article 19: 1–6.) and provide sufficient conditions for equilibrium uniqueness that complement the existing results. We show that if the distribution of the demand intercept has the decreasing mean residual demand (DMRD) or the increasing generalized failure rate (IGFR) property, then uniqueness of equilibrium is guaranteed. The DMRD condition implies log-concavity of the expected profits per unit of output without additional assumptions on the existence or the shape of the density of the demand intercept and, hence, answers in the affirmative the conjecture of Lagerlöf (2006. “Equilibrium Uniqueness in a Cournot Model with Demand Uncertainty.” The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics 6, no. 1. (Topics), Article 19: 1–6.) that such conditions may not be necessary.

scholarly journals Un-Vignetting vignettes

Pomorstvo ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 31 (1) ◽  
pp. 60-66
Author(s):  
Davor Mance
Keyword(s):  
Opportunity Cost ◽  
Primary Source ◽  
Sunk Costs ◽  
Opportunity Costs ◽  
Marginal Costs ◽  
Pricing Scheme ◽  
Pareto Efficient ◽  
Differential Pricing ◽  
Optimal Quantity ◽  
Economic Criteria

In the art of photography, the phenomenon of vignetting means blurring of an image at its periphery compared to its centre. Vignettes are a form of road pricing independent of travel distance. Their usage in Croatia was recently rejected while in Europe, the number of countries using them, is increasing. The economic question of using vignettes as a primary source of revenue for the financing of Croatian highways was blurred by economically peripheral but politically sensitive welfare transfer issues. There has been no visible attempt to push the discussion back into the field of economics by using purely economic criteria such as: opportunity cost of usage, “sunk costs”, marginal costs, and total costs recovery. The paper aims at un-vignetting (un-blurring) the issue and re-focusing it towards economic arguments. The approach taken is a deductive-nomological argument based on opportunity costs of usage. The conclusion is straightforward: the vignettes are Pareto efficient since they make the society in general and the consumers in particular ultimately better off even after taking into account compensations. The opportunity costs of usage of congestion-free roads are zero. The optimal quantity-dependent price is then also zero. Since zero price does not recover costs, a differential pricing scheme needs to be put in place: one that does not depend on distance travelled.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document