Coarse Superpave Mixture Sensitivity

Author(s):  
Amy L. Epps ◽  
Adam J. Hand

Asphalt-aggregate mixture sensitivity has long been recognized for its potential negative impact on performance if variables including the asphalt content (AC) and the percent that passes the 0.075-mm sieve (p0.075) are not carefully controlled during construction. Typical production standard deviations for AC and p0.075 are 0.3 and 0.9 percent, respectively. This mixture sensitivity analysis shows that variations of this magnitude can result in significant changes in coarse Superpave mixture volumetrics. Three coarse mixtures designed for the WesTrack project were examined, including the original coarse mixture and the replacement mixture. The coarse mixture was most sensitive to both AC and p0.075, contradicting the relatively worse performance of the replacement mixture. The replacement mixture was relatively insensitive to p0.075, and the third mixture was extremely sensitive to reductions in p0.075. Results also suggest that mixture sensitivity may affect optimum AC by up to 1.0 percent. When measured sensitivities were compared with those predicted from models calibrated in the field, the potential for extreme sensitivity was demonstrated by errors in predicted changes in air voids that ranged from 0 to 98 percent because of small changes in AC or p0.075. These findings are disturbing when one considers the current industry trend toward the use of coarse Superpave mixtures. The conclusions drawn warrant a recommendation that mixture sensitivity analyses are needed in the Superpave volumetric mix design process. A mixture sensitivity analysis that is useful for identification of sensitive mixtures and that serves as an excellent field quality management tool is presented.

2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (Supplement_2) ◽  
pp. ii105-ii105
Author(s):  
Alexander Hulsbergen ◽  
Asad Lak ◽  
Yu Tung Lo ◽  
Nayan Lamba ◽  
Steven Nagtegaal ◽  
...  

Abstract INTRODUCTION In several cancers treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs), a remarkable association between the occurrence of immune-related adverse events (irAEs) and superior oncological outcomes has been reported. This effect has hitherto not been reported in the brain. This study aimed to investigate the relation between irAEs and outcomes in brain metastases (BM) patients treated with both local treatment to the brain (LT; i.e. surgery and/or radiation) and ICIs. METHODS This study is a retrospective cohort analysis of patients treated for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) BMs in a tertiary institution in Boston, MA. Outcomes of interest were overall survival (OS) and intracranial progression-free survival (IC-PFS), measured from the time of LT. Sensitivity analyses were performed to account for immortal time bias (i.e., patients who live longer receive more cycles of ICIs and thus have more opportunity to develop an irAE). RESULTS A total of 184 patients were included; 62 (33.7%) were treated with neurosurgical resection and 122 (66.3%) with upfront brain radiation. irAEs occurred in 62 patients (33.7%). After adjusting for lung-Graded Prognostic Assessment, type of LT, type of ICI, newly diagnosed vs. recurrent BM, BM size and number, targetable mutations, and smoking status, irAEs were strongly associated with better OS (HR 0.33, 95% CI 0.19 – 0.58, p < 0.0001) and IC-PFS (HR 0.41; 95% CI 0.26 – 0.65; p = 0.0001). Landmark analysis including only patients who received more than 3 cycles of ICI (n = 133) demonstrated similar results for OS and IC-PFS, as did sensitivity analysis adjusting for the number of cycles administered (HR range 0.36 – 0.51, all p-values < 0.02). CONCLUSIONS After adjusting for known prognostic factors, irAEs strongly predict superior outcomes after LT in NSCLC BM patients. Sensitivity analysis suggests that this is unlikely due to immortal time bias.


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Morel-Journel ◽  
E. Vergu ◽  
J.-B. Mercier ◽  
N. Bareille ◽  
P. Ezanno

AbstractThe transport of weaned calves from cow–calf producers to fatteners is a general concern for the young bull industry due to its documented negative impact on the welfare, health and performance of the animals. These transfers are often managed by intermediaries who transport weaned calves to sorting centres, where they are grouped into batches before being sent to fattening units. In this study, we present an algorithm to limiting these transfer distances by appropriately selecting the sorting centre through which they must go. We tested the effectiveness of this algorithm on historical data from a French beef producer organization managing 136,892 transfers using 13 sorting centres. The results show a decrease in the transfer distances compared to the historical record, especially for the calves travelling over long distances (− 76 km, i.e. 18% on average for the 33% longest transfers). Moreover, the distribution of calves between the sorting centres proposed by the algorithm reveals differences in their efficiency in minimizing transfer distances. In addition to its usefulness as a management tool for the daily transport of cattle, this algorithm provides prospects for improving the management of the sorting centres themselves.


Author(s):  
Amin Hosseini ◽  
Touraj Taghikhany ◽  
Milad Jahangiri

In the past few years, many studies have proved the efficiency of Simple Adaptive Control (SAC) in mitigating earthquakes’ damages to building structures. Nevertheless, the weighting matrices of this controller should be selected after a large number of sensitivity analyses. This step is time-consuming and it will not necessarily yield a controller with optimum performance. In the current study, an innovative method is introduced to tuning the SAC’s weighting matrices, which dispenses with excessive sensitivity analysis. In this regard, we try to define an optimization problem using intelligent evolutionary algorithm and utilized control indices in an objective function. The efficiency of the introduced method is investigated in 6-story building structure equipped with magnetorheological dampers under different seismic actions with and without uncertainty in the model of the proposed structure. The results indicate that the controller designed by the introduced method has a desirable performance under different conditions of uncertainty in the model. Furthermore, it improves the seismic performance of structure as compared to controllers designed through sensitivity analysis.


2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 4511-4523 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tarandeep S. Kalra ◽  
Alfredo Aretxabaleta ◽  
Pranay Seshadri ◽  
Neil K. Ganju ◽  
Alexis Beudin

Abstract. Coastal hydrodynamics can be greatly affected by the presence of submerged aquatic vegetation. The effect of vegetation has been incorporated into the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere–Wave–Sediment Transport (COAWST) modeling system. The vegetation implementation includes the plant-induced three-dimensional drag, in-canopy wave-induced streaming, and the production of turbulent kinetic energy by the presence of vegetation. In this study, we evaluate the sensitivity of the flow and wave dynamics to vegetation parameters using Sobol' indices and a least squares polynomial approach referred to as the Effective Quadratures method. This method reduces the number of simulations needed for evaluating Sobol' indices and provides a robust, practical, and efficient approach for the parameter sensitivity analysis. The evaluation of Sobol' indices shows that kinetic energy, turbulent kinetic energy, and water level changes are affected by plant stem density, height, and, to a lesser degree, diameter. Wave dissipation is mostly dependent on the variation in plant stem density. Performing sensitivity analyses for the vegetation module in COAWST provides guidance to optimize efforts and reduce exploration of parameter space for future observational and modeling work.


2018 ◽  
Vol 34 (6) ◽  
pp. 576-583 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saeed Taheri ◽  
Elham Heidari ◽  
Mohammad Ali Aivazi ◽  
Mehran Shams-Beyranvand ◽  
Mehdi Varmaghani

Objectives:This study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of ivabradine plus standard of care (SoC) in comparison with current SoC alone from the Iranian payer perspective.Methods:A cohort-based Markov model was developed to assess the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) over a 10-year time horizon in a cohort of 1,000 patients. The baseline transition probabilities between New York Heart Association (NYHA), mortality rate, and hospitalization rate were extracted from the literature. The effect of ivabradine on mortality, hospitalization, and NYHA improvement or worsening were retrieved from the SHIFT study. The effectiveness was measured as quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) using the utility values derived from Iranian Heart Failure Quality of Life study. Direct medical costs were obtained from hospital records and national tariffs. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to show the robustness of the model.Results:Ivabradine therapy was associated with an incremental cost per QALY of USD $5,437 (incremental cost of USD $2,207 and QALYs gained 0.41) versus SoC. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that ivabradine is expected to have a 60 percent chance of being cost-effective accepting a threshold of USD $6,550 per QALY. Furthermore, deterministic sensitivity analysis indicated that the model is sensitive to the ivabradine drug acquisition cost.Conclusions:The cost-effectiveness model suggested that the addition of ivabradine to SoC therapy was associated with improved clinical outcomes along with increased costs. The analysis indicates that the clinical benefit of ivabradine can be achieved at a reasonable cost in eligible heart failure patients with sinus rhythm and a baseline heart rate ≥ 75 beats per minute (bpm).


2020 ◽  
pp. jrheum.200595
Author(s):  
Titilola Falasinnu ◽  
Cristina Drenkard ◽  
Gaobin Bao ◽  
Sean Mackey ◽  
S. Sam Lim

Objective To define biopsychosocial mechanisms of pain that go above and beyond disease activity and organ damage in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Methods We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of patient-reported data in a population-based registry of 766 people with SLE. Predictors of pain intensity and interference were examined using hierarchical linear regression. We built two main hierarchical regression models: pain intensity regressed on disease activity and organ damage; and pain interference regressed on disease activity and organ damage. For each model, we sought to establish the relationship between pain outcomes and the primary exposures using sequential steps comprising the inclusion of each construct in six stages: demographic, socioeconomic, physical, psychological, behavioral and social factors. We also conducted sensivity analyses eliminating all overt aspects of pain in the disease activity measure and reestimated the models. Results Disease activity and organ damage explained 32-33% of the variance in pain intensity and interference. Sociodemographic factors accounted for an additional 4-9% of variance in pain outcomes, while psychosocial/behavioral factors accounted for the final 4% of variance. In the sensitivity analyses, we found that disease activity and organ damage explained 25% of the variance in pain outcomes. Conclusion Disease activity only explained 33% of the variance of pain outcomes. However, there was an attenuation in these associations after accounting for psychosocial/behavioral factors, highlighting their roles in modifying the relationship between disease activity and pain. These findings suggest that multilevel interventions may be needed to tackle the negative impact of pain in SLE.


2018 ◽  
Vol 859 ◽  
pp. 516-542 ◽  
Author(s):  
Calum S. Skene ◽  
Peter J. Schmid

A linear numerical study is conducted to quantify the effect of swirl on the response behaviour of premixed lean flames to general harmonic excitation in the inlet, upstream of combustion. This study considers axisymmetric M-flames and is based on the linearised compressible Navier–Stokes equations augmented by a simple one-step irreversible chemical reaction. Optimal frequency response gains for both axisymmetric and non-axisymmetric perturbations are computed via a direct–adjoint methodology and singular value decompositions. The high-dimensional parameter space, containing perturbation and base-flow parameters, is explored by taking advantage of generic sensitivity information gained from the adjoint solutions. This information is then tailored to specific parametric sensitivities by first-order perturbation expansions of the singular triplets about the respective parameters. Valuable flow information, at a negligible computational cost, is gained by simple weighted scalar products between direct and adjoint solutions. We find that for non-swirling flows, a mode with azimuthal wavenumber $m=2$ is the most efficiently driven structure. The structural mechanism underlying the optimal gains is shown to be the Orr mechanism for $m=0$ and a blend of Orr and other mechanisms, such as lift-up, for other azimuthal wavenumbers. Further to this, velocity and pressure perturbations are shown to make up the optimal input and output showing that the thermoacoustic mechanism is crucial in large energy amplifications. For $m=0$ these velocity perturbations are mainly longitudinal, but for higher wavenumbers azimuthal velocity fluctuations become prominent, especially in the non-swirling case. Sensitivity analyses are carried out with respect to the Mach number, Reynolds number and swirl number, and the accuracy of parametric gradients of the frequency response curve is assessed. The sensitivity analysis reveals that increases in Reynolds and Mach numbers yield higher gains, through a decrease in temperature diffusion. A rise in mean-flow swirl is shown to diminish the gain, with increased damping for higher azimuthal wavenumbers. This leads to a reordering of the most effectively amplified mode, with the axisymmetric ($m=0$) mode becoming the dominant structure at moderate swirl numbers.


2018 ◽  
Vol 128 (6) ◽  
pp. 1792-1798 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gurpreet S. Gandhoke ◽  
Yash K. Pandya ◽  
Ashutosh P. Jadhav ◽  
Tudor Jovin ◽  
Robert M. Friedlander ◽  
...  

OBJECTIVEThe price of coils used for intracranial aneurysm embolization has continued to rise despite an increase in competition in the marketplace. Coils on the US market range in list price from $500 to $3000. The purpose of this study was to investigate potential cost savings with the use of a price capitation model.METHODSThe authors built a clinical decision analytical tree and compared their institution’s current expenditure on endovascular coils to the costs if a capped-price model were implemented. They retrospectively reviewed coil and cost data for 148 patients who underwent coil embolization from January 2015 through September 2016. Data on the length and number of coils used in all patients were collected and analyzed. The probabilities of a treated aneurysm being ≤/> 10 mm in maximum dimension, the total number of coils used for a case being ≤/> 5, and the total length of coils used for a case being ≤/> 50 cm were calculated, as was the mean cost of the currently used coils for all possible combinations of events with these probabilities. Using the same probabilities, the authors calculated the expected value of the capped-price strategy in comparison with the current one. They also conducted multiple 1-way sensitivity analyses by applying plausible ranges to the probabilities and cost variables. The robustness of the results was confirmed by applying individual distributions to all studied variables and conducting probabilistic sensitivity analysis.RESULTSNinety-five (64%) of 148 patients presented with a rupture, and 53 (36%) were treated on an elective basis. The mean aneurysm size was 6.7 mm. A total of 1061 coils were used from a total of 4 different providers. Companies A (72%) and B (16%) accounted for the major share of coil consumption. The mean number of coils per case was 7.3. The mean cost per case (for all coils) was $10,434. The median total length of coils used, for all coils, was 42 cm. The calculated probability of treating an aneurysm less than 10 mm in maximum dimension was 0.83, for using 5 coils or fewer per case it was 0.42, and for coil length of 50 cm or less it was 0.89. The expected cost per case with the capped policy was calculated to be $4000, a cost savings of $6564 in comparison with using the price of Company A. Multiple 1-way sensitivity analyses revealed that the capped policy was cost saving if its cost was less than $10,500. In probabilistic sensitivity analyses, the lowest cost difference between current and capped policies was $2750.CONCLUSIONSIn comparison with the cost of coils from the authors’ current provider, their decision model and probabilistic sensitivity analysis predicted a minimum $407,000 to a maximum $1,799,976 cost savings in 148 cases by adapting the capped-price policy for coils.


2021 ◽  
pp. 263208432110613
Author(s):  
Landon Gibson ◽  
Frederick Zimmerman

Background. Difference-in-Difference makes a critical assumption that the changes in the outcomes, over the post-treatment period, are similar between the treated and control groups—the parallel trends assumption. Evaluation of this assumption is often done either by graphical examination or by statistical tests in the pre-treatment period. They result in a binary conclusion about the validity of the assumption. Purpose. This paper proposes a sensitivity analysis that quantifies the departure from parallel trends necessary to meaningfully change the estimated treatment effect. Results. Sensitivity analyses have an advantage over traditional parallel trends tests: they use all available data and thereby work even if only one pre-period is available, and they quantify the strength of unobserved confounder(s) required to change the conclusions of a study. Conclusions. We apply the sensitivity analysis metrics developed by Cinelli and Hazlett (2020) and illustrate them on two studies.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Ahmad Jamil ◽  
Talha S. Goraya ◽  
Haseeb Yaqoob ◽  
Kim Choon Ng ◽  
Muhammad Wakil Shahzad ◽  
...  

Heat exchangers are the mainstay of thermal systems and have been extensively used in desalination systems, heating, cooling units, power plants, and energy recovery systems. This chapter demonstrates a robust theoretical framework for heat exchangers investigation based on two advanced tools, i.e., exergoeconomic analysis and Normalized Sensitivity Analysis. The former is applied as a mutual application of economic and thermodynamic analyses, which is much more impactful than the conventional thermodynamic and economic analyses. This is because it allows the investigation of combinatory effects of thermodynamic and fiscal parameters which are not achieved with the conventional methods. Similarly, the Normalized Sensitivity Analysis allows a one-on-one comparison of the sensitivity of output parameters to the input parameters with entirely different magnitudes on a common platform. This rationale comparison is obtained by normalizing the sensitivity coefficients by their nominal values, which is not possible with the conventional sensitivity analyses. An experimentally validated example of a plate heat exchanger is used to demonstrate the application of the proposed framework from a desalination system.


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