Considering Build-Later as an Alternative in Major Transit Investment Analyses

1998 ◽  
Vol 1623 (1) ◽  
pp. 179-184 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xuehao Chu ◽  
Steven Polzin
Keyword(s):  
Theoretical Model ◽  
Discount Rate ◽  
Construction Cost ◽  
Necessary Condition ◽  
Optimal Timing ◽  
Infrastructure Projects ◽  
Public Infrastructure ◽  
Net Benefits ◽  
Over Time

How the stream of benefits, discount rate, and other parameters of a major transit project affect its optimal timing are examined. A theoretical model of the timing of public infrastructure projects is used. The model takes into account the net benefits of a project, the variation of benefits with project age and timing of investment, construction cost and its growth, and discount rate. The model is used to examine three questions: Under what conditions is build-later optimal? How do changes in the discount rate and other parameters of an investment affect its optimal timing? How significantly do differences in the stream of net benefits from an investment affect its optimal timing? The first two questions are examined analytically, and the last question is examined numerically. When the stream of net benefits stays constant, declines, or shifts parallel with the timing of investment, build-later is not optimal. When the stream of net benefits grows over time, however, build-later can be optimal. A necessary condition for build-later to be optimal is that initial net benefits be relatively small. When build-later is optimal, how much later to build varies significantly.

PROMETHEE-based ranking of project managers based on the five personality traits

Kybernetes ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 49 (4) ◽  
pp. 1083-1102
Author(s):  
Georgios N. Aretoulis ◽  
Jason Papathanasiou ◽  
Fani Antoniou
Keyword(s):  
Personality Traits ◽  
Questionnaire Survey ◽  
Multicriteria Decision Making ◽  
Project Managers ◽  
Preference Ranking ◽  
Infrastructure Projects ◽  
Public Infrastructure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The One ◽  
Selection Of

Purpose This paper aims to rank and identify the most efficient project managers (PMs) based on personality traits, using Preference Ranking Organization METHod for Enrichment Evaluations (PROMETHEE) methodology. Design/methodology/approach The proposed methodology relies on the five personality traits. These were used as the selection criteria. A questionnaire survey among 82 experienced engineers was used to estimate the required weights per personality trait. A second two-part questionnaire survey aimed at recording the PMs profile and assess the performance of personality traits per PM. PMs with the most years of experience are selected to be ranked through Visual PROMETHEE. Findings The findings suggest that a competent PM is the one that scores low on the “Neuroticism” trait and high especially on the “Conscientiousness” trait. Research limitations/implications The research applied a psychometric test specifically designed for Greek people. Furthermore, the proposed methodology is based on the personality characteristics to rank the PMs and does not consider the technical skills. Furthermore, the type of project is not considered in the process of ranking PMs. Practical implications The findings could contribute in the selection of the best PM that maximizes the project team’s performance. Social implications Improved project team communication and collaboration leading to improved project performance through better communication and collaboration. This is an additional benefit for the society, especially in the delivery of public infrastructure projects. A lot of public infrastructure projects deviate largely as far as cost and schedule is concerned and this is an additional burden for public and society. Proper project management through efficient PMs would save people’s money and time. Originality/value Identification of the best PMbased on a combination of multicriteria decision-making and psychometric tests, which focus on personality traits.

scholarly journals Appropriate Discounting for Benefit-Cost Analysis

2011 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
David F. Burgess ◽  
Richard O. Zerbe
Keyword(s):  
Cost Analysis ◽  
Discount Rate ◽  
Cost Of Capital ◽  
Hyperbolic Discounting ◽  
Ease Of Use ◽  
Benefit Cost Analysis ◽  
The Social ◽  
Net Benefits ◽  
Benefit Cost

In order to be sensible about what discount rate to use one must be clear about its purpose. We suggest that its purpose is to help select those projects that will contribute more net benefits than some other discount rate. This approach, which is after all the foundation for benefit-cost analysis, helps to reconcile different suggested procedures for determining the discount rate. We suggest that the social opportunity cost of capital (SOC) is superior to other suggested approaches in its generality and its ease of use. We use the SOC to determine a range of real rates that vary between 6% and 8%. We suggest that approaches based on determination of preferences, which result in hyperbolic discounting, are less appropriate and less useful.

A New Look into the Determinants of the Ecological Discount Rate: Disentangling Social Preferences

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Luciana Echazu ◽  
Diego Nocetti ◽  
William T. Smith
Keyword(s):  
Term Structure ◽  
Discount Rate ◽  
Environmental Quality ◽  
Social Preferences ◽  
Inequality Aversion ◽  
The Social ◽  
Representative Consumer ◽  
Change Mitigation ◽  
Over Time

Abstract How should changes in environmental quality occurring in the future be discounted? To answer this question we consider a model of “ecological discounting”, where the representative consumer has a utility function defined over two attributes, consumption and environmental quality, which evolve stochastically over time. We characterize the determinants of the social discount rate and its behavior over time using a preference structure that disentangles attitudes towards intertemporal inequality, attitudes towards risk, and tastes over consumption and environmental quality. We show that the degree of substitutability between consumption and environmental quality, the degree of risk aversion, the degree of inequality aversion, and the rate at which these attitudes change as natural and man-made resources evolve over time are all important aspects of the ecological discount rate and its term structure. Our analysis suggests that over medium and long term horizons the ecological discount rate should be below the rate of time preference, supporting recent proposals for immediate action towards climate change mitigation.

Editorial: Managing Competing Public Values in Public Infrastructure Projects

2008 ◽  
Vol 28 (3) ◽  
pp. 131-134 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joop Koppenjan ◽  
Michael B. Charles ◽  
Neal Ryan
Keyword(s):  
Infrastructure Projects ◽  
Public Infrastructure ◽  
Public Values

The Weitzman Argument

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Gollier
Keyword(s):  
Discount Rate ◽  
Opportunity Cost ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Cost Of Capital ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Simple Rule ◽  
Rate Of Return ◽  
Net Benefit ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Net Benefits

This chapter examines a model in which the exogeneous rate of return of capital is constant but random. Safe investment projects must be evaluated and implemented before this uncertainty can be fully revealed, i.e., before knowing the opportunity cost of capital. A simple rule of thumb in this context would be to compute the net present value (NPV) for each possible discount rate, and to implement the project if the expected NPV is positive. If the evaluator uses this approach, this is as if one would discount cash flows at a rate that is decreasing with maturity. This approach is implicitly based on the assumptions that the stakeholders are risk-neutral and transfer the net benefits of the project to an increase in immediate consumption. Opposite results prevail if one assumes that the net benefit is consumed at the maturity of the project.

The Politics of Competence

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arthur Lupia
Keyword(s):  
Contextual Factors ◽  
Necessary Condition ◽  
Educational Strategy ◽  
Educational Strategies ◽  
Political Roles ◽  
Value Diversity ◽  
Net Benefits ◽  
Personal Costs

To increase another person’s knowledge or competence, it is necessary to attract attention to the information and for attentive persons to find the information credible. What attributes of information induce an audience to respond in these ways? To answer this question, I offer a framework called the politics of competence. This framework offers a way to organize and use information about psychological and contextual factors that affect how prospective learners think about what information is worth learning. The politics of competence has four components: value diversity, issue complexity, political roles, and learning costs. Individually and collectively, these four components affect what educational strategies are feasible, unfeasible, successful, and unsuccessful. They have this power because they produce divergent views of what strategies, knowledge, and competence are beneficial. They lead people to reach different conclusions about educational strategy questions such as “What information should educators convey?” and “Who should know what?” Educators can benefit from understanding the politics of competence. To see how, consider that a necessary condition for an educational endeavor to increase knowledge or competence is that prospective learners choose to participate. Some educators also need people to support their educational endeavors with money or labor. To draw the needed participation, potential learners, partners, and supporters must perceive that the endeavor will produce sufficiently positive net benefits. That is, all who are asked to sacrifice something of value as a means of advancing an educational endeavor must see the newly created knowledge or competence as providing benefits that are large when compared to the personal costs of achieving these goals. If sufficiently few people perceive an educational venture in this way, they will not participate. When success depends on producing outcomes that offer substantial net benefits from the perspective of essential participants, educators can benefit from understanding how the politics of competence affects the kind of information that different people find valuable. Designing educational endeavors that can deliver such benefits can be difficult. People who have gone a lifetime without knowing much about a particular issue may wonder why they need to learn about it now.

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