Generation of Synthetic Daily Activity-Travel Patterns

1997 ◽  
Vol 1607 (1) ◽  
pp. 154-162 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryuichi Kitamura ◽  
Cynthia Chen ◽  
Ram M. Pendyala
Keyword(s):  
Daily Activity ◽  
Travel Demand ◽  
Demand Forecasting ◽  
Multinomial Logit Model ◽  
Time Of Day ◽  
Travel Patterns ◽  
Activity Type ◽  
Individual Activity ◽  
Sequential Approach ◽  
Data Set

Microsimulation approaches to travel demand forecasting are gaining increased attention because of their ability to replicate the multitude of factors underlying individual travel behavior. The implementation of microsimulation approaches usually entails the generation of synthetic households and their associated activity-travel patterns to achieve forecasts with desired levels of accuracy. A sequential approach to generating synthetic daily individual activity-travel patterns was developed. The sequential approach decomposes the entire daily activity-travel pattern into various components, namely, activity type, activity duration, activity location, work location, and mode choice and transition. The sequential modeling approach offers practicality, provides a sound behavioral basis, and accurately represents an individual’s activity-travel patterns. In the proposed system each component may be estimated as a multinomial logit model. Models are specified to reflect potential associations between individual activity-travel choices and such factors as time of day, socioeconomic characteristics, and history dependence. As an example results for activity type choice models estimated and validated with the 1990 Southern California Association of Governments travel diary data set are provided. The validation results indicate that the predicted pattern of activity choices conforms with observed choices by time of day. Thus, realistic daily activity-travel patterns, which are requisites for microsimulation approaches, can be generated for synthetic households in a practical manner.

scholarly journals Departure Time Choice (DTC) Behavior for Intercity Travel during a Long-Holiday in Bangkok, Thailand

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Bhawat Chaichannawatik ◽  
Kunnawee Kanitpong ◽  
Thirayoot Limanond
Keyword(s):  
Travel Behavior ◽  
Traffic Congestion ◽  
Travel Demand ◽  
Multinomial Logit Model ◽  
Time Of Day ◽  
Travel Patterns ◽  
Peak Period ◽  
Intercity Travel ◽  
Departure Time ◽  
Departure Time Choice

Time-of-day (TOD) or departure time choice (DTC) has become an interesting issue over two decades. Many researches have intensely focused on time-of-day or departure time choice study, especially workday departures. However, the travel behavior during long-holiday/intercity travel has received relatively little attention in previous studies. This paper shows the characteristics of long-holiday intercity travel patterns based on 2012 New Year data collected in Thailand with a specific focus on departure time choice of car commuters due to traffic congestion occurring during the beginning of festivals. 590 interview data were analyzed to provide more understanding of general characteristics of DTC behavior for intercity travel at the beginning of a Bangkok long-holiday. Moreover, the Multinomial Logit Model (MNL) was used to find the car-based DTC model. The results showed that travelers tend to travel at the peak period when the parameters of personal and household are not so significant, in contrast to the trip-related characteristics and holiday variables that play important roles in traveler decision on departure time choice. Finally, some policies to distribute travel demand and reduce the repeatable traffic congestion at the beginning of festivals are recommended.

scholarly journals Interpersonal and Intrapersonal Variabilities in Daily Activity-Travel Patterns: A Networked Spatiotemporal Analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 148
Author(s):  
Wenjia Zhang ◽  
Chunhan Ji ◽  
Hao Yu ◽  
Yi Zhao ◽  
Yanwei Chai
Keyword(s):  
Daily Activity ◽  
Pattern Mining ◽  
Travel Demand ◽  
Multinomial Logit Model ◽  
Spatiotemporal Analysis ◽  
Travel Patterns ◽  
Travel Behaviors ◽  
Typical Day ◽  
Intrapersonal Variability ◽  
Selection Of

Interpersonal and intrapersonal variabilities are two important perspectives to understand daily travel behaviors, while only a small number of studies incorporate them for understanding human dynamics. This paper employed a network analysis approach to detecting daily activity-travel patterns of 680 Beijing’s residents within a week and then used a multilevel multinomial logit model to analyze the intrapersonal variability in patterns and the socioeconomic linkages behind them. Results suggest that most activity-travel patterns have significant day-to-day intrapersonal and interpersonal variabilities. This suggests that the application of a typical day of activity-travel behaviors to measure and represent a week’s or even longer-term behaviors may be biased, due to the existence of day-to-day intrapersonal variability. This study also provides a hint for the selection of days of a week to conduct a diary survey for activity pattern mining or travel demand modeling.

scholarly journals Multi-Regional Online Car-Hailing Order Quantity Forecasting Based on the Convolutional Neural Network

Information ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 193 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zihao Huang ◽  
Gang Huang ◽  
Zhijun Chen ◽  
Chaozhong Wu ◽  
Xiaofeng Ma ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Convolutional Neural Network ◽  
Travel Demand ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Demand Forecasting ◽  
Image Feature ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Demand Distribution ◽  
Demand Forecasting Model

With the development of online cars, the demand for travel prediction is increasing in order to reduce the information asymmetry between passengers and drivers of online car-hailing. This paper proposes a travel demand forecasting model named OC-CNN based on the convolutional neural network to forecast the travel demand. In order to make full use of the spatial characteristics of the travel demand distribution, this paper meshes the prediction area and creates a travel demand data set of the graphical structure to preserve its spatial properties. Taking advantage of the convolutional neural network in image feature extraction, the historical demand data of the first twenty-five minutes of the entire region are used as a model input to predict the travel demand for the next five minutes. In order to verify the performance of the proposed method, one-month data from online car-hailing of the Chengdu Fourth Ring Road are used. The results show that the model successfully extracts the spatiotemporal features of the data, and the prediction accuracies of the proposed method are superior to those of the representative methods, including the Bayesian Ridge Model, Linear Regression, Support Vector Regression, and Long Short-Term Memory networks.

An Integrated, Validated, and Applied Activity-Based Dynamic Traffic Assignment Model for the Baltimore-Washington Region

2018 ◽  
Vol 2672 (51) ◽  
pp. 45-55 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lei Zhang ◽  
Di Yang ◽  
Sepehr Ghader ◽  
Carlos Carrion ◽  
Chenfeng Xiong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Daily Activity ◽  
Travel Demand ◽  
Traffic Assignment ◽  
Dynamic Traffic Assignment ◽  
Integrated Model ◽  
Time Of Day ◽  
Practical Implementation ◽  
Baseline Scenario ◽  
Demand Model ◽  
Dynamic Traffic

The paper discusses the integration process and initial applications of a new model for the Baltimore-Washington region that integrates an activity-based travel demand model (ABM) with a dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) model. Specifically, the integrated model includes InSITE, an ABM developed for the Baltimore Metropolitan Council, and DTALite, a mesoscopic DTA model. The integrated model simulates the complete daily activity choices of individuals residing in the model region, including long-term choices, such as workplace location; daily activity patterns, including joint household activities and school escorting; activity location choices; time-of-day choices; mode choices; and route choices. The paper describes the model development and integration approach, including modeling challenges, such as the need to maintain consistency between the ABM and DTA models in terms of temporal and spatial resolution, and practical implementation issues, such as managing model run time and ensuring sufficient convergence of the model. The integrated model results have been validated against observed daily traffic volumes and vehicle-miles traveled (VMT) for various functional classes. A land-use change scenario that analyzes the redevelopment of the Port Covington area in Baltimore is applied and compared with the baseline scenario. The validation and application results suggest that the integrated model outperforms a static assignment-based ABM and could capture behavioral changes at much finer time resolutions.

Simulation of Daily Activity Patterns Incorporating Interactions within Households

2005 ◽  
Vol 1926 (1) ◽  
pp. 135-141 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ondřej Přibyl ◽  
Konstadinos G. Goulias
Keyword(s):  
Decision Trees ◽  
Daily Activity ◽  
Travel Demand ◽  
Activity Patterns ◽  
Demand Analysis ◽  
New Method ◽  
Travel Patterns ◽  
The Past ◽  
Microsimulation Models ◽  
Daily Activity Patterns

Activity-based approaches to travel demand analysis have gained attention in the past few years and rapidly created the need to develop alternative microsimulation models for comparisons. In this paper, one such example simulates an individual's daily activity–travel patterns and incorporates the interactions among members of households. This model uses several tools to simulate the activity patterns, including a new method to extract activity patterns from data and decision trees to take into account personal and household characteristics. The model outputs are the individuals’ daily activity patterns on a detailed temporal scale. These patterns respect individuals’ constraints, which are implicitly embedded in the simulated activity and travel schedules via the intrahousehold interactions. This model was evaluated with data from 1,500 persons in Centre County, Pennsylvania, collected during fall 2002 and spring 2003.

Exploring Individual Activity-Travel Patterns Based on Geolocation Data from Mobile Phones

2021 ◽  
pp. 036119812110312
Author(s):  
Biao Yin ◽  
Fabien Leurent
Keyword(s):  
Mobile Phone ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Travel Patterns ◽  
Mobility Patterns ◽  
Individual Activity ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Individual Mobility ◽  
Daily Mobility ◽  
Home Based ◽  
The Individual

Data mining techniques can extract useful activity and travel information from large-scale data sources such as mobile phone geolocation data. This paper aims to explore individual activity-travel patterns from samples of mobile phone users using a two-week geolocation data set from the Paris region in France. After filtering the data set, we propose techniques to identify individual stays and activity places. Typical activity places such as the primary anchor place and the secondary place are detected. The daily timeline (i.e., activity-travel program) is reconstructed with the detected activity places and the trips in-between. Based on user-day timelines, a three-stage clustering method is proposed for mobility pattern analysis. In the method framework, activity types are first identified by clustering analysis. In the second stage, daily mobility patterns are obtained after clustering the daily mobility features. Activity-travel topologies are statistically investigated to support the interpretation of daily mobility patterns. In the last stage, we analyze statistically the individual mobility patterns for all samples over 14 days, measured by the number of days for all kinds of daily mobility patterns. All individual samples are divided into several groups where people have similar travel behaviors. A kmeans++ algorithm is applied to obtain the appropriate number of patterns in each stage. Finally, we interpret the individual mobility patterns with statistical descriptions and reveal home-based differences in spatial distribution for the grouped individuals.

scholarly journals Modeling Framework and Implementation of Activity- and Agent-Based Simulation: An Application to the Greater Boston Area

2018 ◽  
Vol 2672 (49) ◽  
pp. 146-157 ◽  
Author(s):  
Isabel Viegas de Lima ◽  
Mazen Danaf ◽  
Arun Akkinepally ◽  
Carlos Lima De Azevedo ◽  
Moshe Ben-Akiva
Keyword(s):  
Travel Demand ◽  
Time Of Day ◽  
Agent Based Modeling ◽  
Travel Patterns ◽  
Activity Schedules ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Similar Activity ◽  
Home Based ◽  
Wide Range

This paper presents a utility-maximizing approach to agent-based modeling with an application to the Greater Boston Area (GBA). It leverages day activity schedules (DAS) to create a framework for representing travel demand in an individual’s day. DAS are composed of a sequence of stops that make up home-based tours with activity purposes, intermediate stops, and subtours. The framework introduced in this paper includes three levels: (1) the Day Pattern Level, which determines if an individual will travel and, if so, what types of primary activities and intermediate stops they will do; (2) the Tour Level, which models the mode, destination, and time-of-day of the different primary activities; and (3) the Intermediate Stop Level, which generates intermediate stops. The models are estimated for the GBA using the 2010 Massachusetts Travel Survey (MTS). They are then implemented in SimMobility, the agent-based, activity-based, multimodal simulator. It run in a microsimulation using a Synthetic Population. Produced results are consistent with the MTS. Compared with similar activity-based approaches, the proposed framework allows for more flexibility in modeling a wide range of activity and travel patterns.

scholarly journals A Method for Extracting Travel Patterns Using Data Polishing

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mio Hosoe ◽  
Masashi Kuwano ◽  
Taku Moriyama
Keyword(s):  
Analysis Data ◽  
Time Of Day ◽  
Clustering Methods ◽  
Travel Patterns ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Smart Card Data ◽  
Information And Communication ◽  
Data Points ◽  
Destination Station ◽  
Using Data

Abstract With the development of ICT (Information and Communication Technology), interest in using the large amount of accumulated data for traffic policy planning has been increasing. In recent years, data polishing has been proposed as a new methodology for big data analysis. Data polishing is one of the graphical clustering methods. This method can be used to extract patterns that are similar or related to each other by clarifying the cluster structures in the data. The purpose of this study is to reveal travel patterns of railway passengers by applying data polishing to smart card data collected in Kagawa Prefecture, Japan. This study uses 9,008,709 data points collected during the 15 months from December 1st, 2013 to February 28th, 2015. This data set includes such information as trip histories and types of passengers. The study uses the data polishing method to cluster 4,667,520 combinations of information about individual rides: day of the week, time of day, passenger type, origin station, and destination station. As a result, 127 characteristic travel patterns were specified from those combinations.

Systematic Investigation of Variability due to Random Simulation Error in an Activity-Based Microsimulation Forecasting Model

2003 ◽  
Vol 1831 (1) ◽  
pp. 76-88 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joe Castiglione ◽  
Joel Freedman ◽  
Mark Bradley
Keyword(s):  
Travel Demand ◽  
Mode Choice ◽  
Demand Forecasting ◽  
Time Of Day ◽  
Model System ◽  
Destination Choice ◽  
Random Numbers ◽  
Microsimulation Model ◽  
Random Simulation ◽  
Simulation Error

A key difference between stochastic microsimulation models and more traditional forms of travel demand forecasting models is that micro-simulation-based forecasts change each time the sequence of random numbers used to simulate choices is varied. To address practitioners’ concerns about this variation, a common approach is to run the microsimulation model several times and average the results. The question then becomes: What is the minimum number of runs required to reach a true average state for a given set of model results? This issue was investigated by means of a systematic experiment with the San Francisco model, a microsimulation model system used in actual planning applications since 2000. The system contains models of vehicle availability, day pattern choice, tour time-of-day choice, destination choice, and mode choice. To investigate the variability of the forecasts of this system due to random simulation error, the model system was run 100 times, each time changing only the sequence of random numbers used to simulate individual choices from the logit model probabilities. The extent of random variability in the model results is reported as a function of two factors: ( a) the type of model (vehicle availability, tour generation, destination choice, or mode choice); and ( b) the level of geographic detail—transit at the analysis zone level, neighborhood level, or countywide level. For each combination of these factors, it is shown graphically how quickly the mean values of key output variables converge toward a stable value as the number of simulation runs increases.

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