Improved Methodology for Developing a Long-Range Pavement Rehabilitation Program

1997 ◽  
Vol 1568 (1) ◽  
pp. 175-185
Author(s):  
Li Wang ◽  
Michael I. Darter ◽  
Kathleen T. Hall ◽  
Yan Lu ◽  
David L. Lippert
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Rehabilitation Program ◽  
Pavement Management ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Real Problem ◽  
Potential Cost ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
New Concepts ◽  
User Friendly

Current methodologies for developing, evaluating, and improving longrange rehabilitation programs may be classified as manual or analytical. The major limitation of manual methods is that although they are practical, they are not cost-effective because of the difficulties of comparing potential cost/benefit trade-offs among alternatives. Analytical methods, on the other hand, are more cost-effective but often not practical, because they oversimplify the real problem into a mathematical model and do not allow engineers and managers to be involved in the decision-making process. A new methodology and new concepts to overcome these major deficiencies were developed and implemented. The first of the new concepts is the use of graphical data interpretation and “visual thinking.” The second is that pavement performance evaluation should be comprehensive and quickly accessible. The third is that human knowledge should be involved in the decision-making process through a user-friendly interface. The fourth is that the relationships among the components of the methodology should be flexible rather than rigid. Finally, the process should be efficiently repeatable so that a satisfactory long-term rehabilitation program can be developed. A user-friendly, Windows-based pavement management system, called Windows ILLINET, was produced in this study on the basis of the new methodology and concepts.

scholarly journals Renewables—To Build or Not? Czech Approach to Impact Assessment of Renewable Energy Sources with an Emphasis on Municipality Perspective

Land ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (12) ◽  
pp. 497
Author(s):  
Jan Macháč ◽  
Lenka Zaňková
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Impact Assessment ◽  
Renewable Energy Sources ◽  
Multicriteria Analysis ◽  
Energy Sources ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Social Environmental ◽  
Almost All ◽  
User Friendly ◽  
Municipal Level

The process of decarbonization and increasing the share of renewable sources of energy (RES) arising not only from European Union targets leads to development, expansion, and construction of new RES. Municipalities thus face a decision whether to support/accept RES projects or not. Although energy managers are part of the municipality management in almost all bigger cities, mayors of smaller municipalities have to go through the decision-making process on their own. The aim of the paper is to present a newly developed approach for mayors and state representatives that helps them implement the process in a user-friendly way. The paper brings a description of an approach to RES impact assessment at a municipal level based on multicriteria analysis. The RES impacts are divided into four categories: economic, social, environmental, and innovation effects. The procedure is demonstrated on an example of assessment of four sources in Czechia.

A Methodology to Improve the Decision-Making Process

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-81 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher Nikulin ◽  
Paulina Solis ◽  
Mónica López-Campos
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Complex Analysis ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Real Problem ◽  
Good Representation ◽  
Problem Situation ◽  
Simple Task ◽  
Analytical Skills ◽  
Modeling Process

The modeling approach is relevant to support the decision-making process. Modeling requires a structured approach, knowledge and specific analytical skills in order to obtain an appropriate representation of the situation under analysis. Nevertheless, creating a good representation of the reality is not a simple task; it is not trivial to choose an analysis approach since most of decision-makers could have partial lacks information during the different stages of the modeling process. Considering this, we propose a methodology to support the decision-making process by using a novel structured integration of different quantitative and qualitative tools, such as system dynamics, decision theory and the theory of inventive problem solving (TRIZ), in order to simplify the modeling process in complex analysis. A case study attempts to illustrate the application of the methodology in a real problem situation, related to the analysis of disasters within the boundaries of Valparaíso City, specifically fires.

scholarly journals Integrating IVHM and Asset Design

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ian K Jennions ◽  
Octavian Niculita ◽  
Manuel Esperon-Miguez
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Supply Chain ◽  
System Design ◽  
Design Process ◽  
Systems Engineering ◽  
Health Management ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Fully Integrated ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Causes Of Failure

Integrated Vehicle Health Management (IVHM) describes a set of capabilities that enable effective and efficient maintenance and operation of the target vehicle. It accounts for the collecting of data, conducting analysis, and supporting the decision-making process for sustainment and operation. The design of IVHM systems endeavours to account for all causes of failure in a disciplined, systems engineering, manner. With industry striving to reduce through-life cost, IVHM is a powerful tool to give forewarning of impending failure and hence control over the outcome. Benefits have been realised from this approach across a number of different sectors but, hindering our ability to realise further benefit from this maturing technology, is the fact that IVHM is still treated as added on to the design of the asset, rather than being a sub-system in its own right, fully integrated with the asset design. The elevation and integration of IVHM in this way will enable architectures to be chosen that accommodate health ready sub-systems from the supply chain and design trade-offs to be made, to name but two major benefits. Barriers to IVHM being integrated with the asset design are examined in this paper. The paper presents progress in overcoming them, and suggests potential solutions for those that remain. It addresses the IVHM system design from a systems engineering perspective and the integration with the asset design will be described within an industrial design process.

scholarly journals ON-FARM TRADE-OFFS FOR OPTIMAL AGRICULTURAL PRACTICES IN MATO GROSSO, BRAZIL

2017 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcelo Carauta ◽  
Affonso Amaral Dalla Libera ◽  
Anna Hampf ◽  
Rafael Felice Fan Chen ◽  
José Maria Ferreira Jardim Silveira ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Simulation Experiment ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Agricultural Practices ◽  
Economic Behavior ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Mato Grosso ◽  
Double Cropping ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Decision Variables

To keep yield advances, farmers in Mato Grosso (MT) have been adopting several technological innovations. Therefore, agricultural production systems in MT have become complex and dynamic since farmers have to consider the increase of decision variables when planning and implementing their farming practices. These variables are widely spread across many distinct topics, bringing them together and summarizing information from diverse fields of research has become a difficult task in farmers’ decision-making process. Therefore, we performed an Integrated Assessment simulation experiment with a region-specific bio-economic component to assess trade-offs between different agricultural practices in a double cropping system. The simulation experiment was carried out with MPMAS, a multi-agent software package developed for simulating farm-based economic behavior and human-environment interactions in agriculture. Crop yields were simulated with the Model of Nitrogen and Carbon dynamics in Agro-ecosystems (MONICA). Our simulation results show a trade-off between lower soybean yields with the flexibility of double cropping when soybean with shorter maturity cycle is introduced. Results also captured regional differences in terms of land use share of different crops and farm configurations of double cropping. These results provide key insights into a farmer’s decision-making process depending on a multitude of decision variables.

KALLISTO: cost effective and integrated optimization of the urban wastewater system Eindhoven

2012 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
S. R. Weijers ◽  
J. de Jonge ◽  
O. van Zanten ◽  
L. Benedetti ◽  
J. Langeveld ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Water System ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Urban Water ◽  
Urban Wastewater ◽  
Urban Water System ◽  
Treatment Techniques ◽  
Project Strategy

The Kallisto project aims at finding cost effective sets of measures to meet the WFD derived goals for the river De Dommel. The project reasons from the both acute and long term impacts of the urban wastewater system on the quality and ecology of the river that are studied with an integral monitoring campaign in the wastewater system (WWTP and sewers) and river. By applying impact based RTC, the project aims at minimizing additional investments in infrastructure while meeting the requirements. Moreover, uncertainty is explicitly considered in the optimization and decision making process. The paper describes the overall project strategy, some preliminary results of modelling and monitoring of the components of the urban water system and the demonstration research for treatment techniques and the planned integration into optimization and decision making.

A Systematic Approach to Re-Using of Used or Out-of-Service Static Equipment

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kaveh Ebrahimi
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Systematic Approach ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Life Extension ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Correct Identification ◽  
End User ◽  
Hydrocarbon Production ◽  
Major Equipment ◽  
Extension Evaluation

The constant uncertainty within the hydrocarbon production and refining market coupled with the continued pressure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and costs is increasing the need for operators of petroleum facilities to seek cost-effective ways of utilizing used or out-of-service equipment instead of installing new equipment. As an example, there may be equipment in parts of a refinery that have been out of service for a while, which the operator or end user would like to use in similar applications in the same refinery or other plants elsewhere. Once an operator decides to look at the possibility of re-using used or out-of-service equipment, a few important steps need to be taken to determine whether the equipment is still operable and suitable for its new intended service. As inspection, moving or relocating of major equipment within operating plants is usually possible only during planned turnarounds, the correct identification of necessary steps, prioritizing of tasks, and precise planning and coordination of activities to evaluate the condition of used or out-of-service equipment are critical to meet the usual tight deadlines of the decision making process. This article is structured primarily as an attempt to assist the organizations in charge of evaluation of used or out-of-service equipment to identify and plan the necessary steps in order to determine their suitability for their new intended service. Many of the issues discussed here can be also applied to any life extension evaluation program, and therefore throughout this report the term out-of-service is interchangeable with ‘used’ equipment. The focus of this article is mainly static equipment as re-using of machinery or rotating equipment would require a rather different approach [1]. Two case studies included at the end of this report demonstrate the benefits of adopting a systematic approach in evaluating used equipment.

Different cost-benefit analyses in The Netherlands for the European Water Framework Directive

Water Policy ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 746-760 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. van der Veeren
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
The Netherlands ◽  
Water Framework Directive ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
European Water Framework Directive ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
European Water ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Economic Analyses

Since 2005, several cost benefit analyses have been performed for the European Water Framework Directive (WFD) in The Netherlands. These analyses had in common that they were meant to support the decision-making process by informing policy makers and making the trade-offs as transparent as possible. The analyses also anticipate questions from the Dutch Parliament. Nevertheless, each time the analyses were slightly different, depending on the situation and (political) questions that had to be answered. This article presents the background and the highlights of the various analyses, describes their differences and similarities and tries to find a common thread in the results. Even though the results are barely comparable for a number of reasons, they seem to indicate that such a line exists and that economic analyses have played a role in the decision-making process by making tradeoffs more explicit. This has offered the opportunity for an iterative dialogue with the Dutch Parliament, which contributed to a decision-making process which resulted in a socially accepted programme of measures that is economically sound and transparent.

scholarly journals How Prediction Accuracy Can Affect the Decision-Making Process in Pavement Management System

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 28
Author(s):  
Seyed Amirhossein Hosseini ◽  
Omar Smadi
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Reduction Rate ◽  
Pavement Management ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Pavement Management Systems ◽  
Maintenance And Rehabilitation ◽  
Predicted Values ◽  
The Cost

One of the most important components of pavement management systems is predicting the deterioration of the network through performance models. The accuracy of the prediction model is important for prioritizing maintenance action. This paper describes how the accuracy of prediction models can have an effect on the decision-making process in terms of the cost of maintenance and rehabilitation activities. The process is simulating the propagation of the error between the actual and predicted values of pavement performance indicators. Different rate of error (10%, 30%, 50%, 70%, and 90%) was added into the result of prediction models. The results showed a strong correlation between the prediction models’ accuracy and the cost of maintenance and rehabilitation activities. The cost of treatment (in millions of dollars) over 20 years for five different scenarios increased from ($54.07–$92.95), ($53.89–$155.48), and ($74.41–$107.77) for asphalt, composite, and concrete pavement types, respectively. Increasing the rate of error also contributed to the prediction model, resulting in a higher benefit reduction rate.

scholarly journals Long term Temperature and Precipitation Trends Assessment in the state of Qatar and its Implication to Energy Water and Food Nexus

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Al-Ansari Tareq ◽  
Govindan Rajesh ◽  
Hazrat Bilal
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Winter Precipitation ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Seasonal Temperature ◽  
Security Assessment ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Trade Offs

Abstract Climate change is one of the most severe global challenges of the present generation. Variations in temperature and precipitation can seriously affect water energy, water and food (EWF) security. Assessment of the ground-based observation of the climatic parameters such as temperature and precipitation are vital for the overall decision-making process concerning energy, water and food security. In this study, temperature and precipitation data is investigated using the Mann Kendall, Pettitt and Watson tests and inter-annual variability assessment. Long-term temperature data indicates that the annual and seasonal temperature has increased significantly between 1987 and 2016. The mean temperature has increased by 1.02 ℃ over the period of observation. In contrast, the study determines that precipitation during the period of observation decreased by -12.6 mm. However, this decreasing trend is not statistically significant (p < 0.05). Furthermore, total monthly precipitation is observed to be decreasing during the winter (December-January-February-DJF) while increasing in spring (March-April-May-MAM), summer (June-July-August-JJA) and autumn (September-October-November-SON). Despite the observed increases in the seasonal temperature during JJA, MAM and SON, the decreasing trend in winter precipitation is of more concern as most of the rainfall is received during DJF. These results have serious implications for EWF resources and the ‘nexus’ between them. Such integrated resource management approaches not only lower the risks of a one-dimensional decision-making process, it can also identify interdependencies, synergies, and trade-offs amongst the EWF sectors. As an outcome of the calculated trends, this study recommends measures to improve the overall resilience of EWF sectors and to adapt and mitigate the negative consequences of the changing climate faced by these sectors.

scholarly journals RISK MANAGEMENT IN MAQISTRAL GAS AND OIL PIPELINE SYSTEMS WITH POTENTIAL COST CONSTRAINTS

2021 ◽  
Vol 08 (04) ◽  
pp. 59-71
Author(s):  
Oleq Dyshin, Ibrahim Habibov Oleq Dyshin, Ibrahim Habibov ◽  
Camaladdin Aslanov, Sevda Aghammadova Camaladdin Aslanov, Sevda Aghammadova
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Real Problem ◽  
Stationary Strategy ◽  
Potential Cost ◽  
Oil Pipeline ◽  
Cost Constraints ◽  
Pipeline Systems ◽  
Markov Decision ◽  
Basic Solutions

The problem of managing technical and technological risks in main gas and oil pipeline systems, subject to the possibility of limited funds allocated for the prevention and elimination of the consequences of accidents, is considered in the form of a semi-Markov decision-making model for a controlled Markov process in continuous time with the criterion of the maximum average discounted income. To find the optimal nonrandomized Markov stationary strategy, a procedure is proposed based on reducing the formulated fuzzy problem to an equivalent Boolean programming problem with deterministic constraints. To solve the resulting system of inequality constraints, an algorithm has been developed for finding basic solutions for an arbitrary number of accidents and measures to eliminate them. The numerical implementation of the proposed approach is implemented for the real problem of risk management in the main gas pipeline with unclear cost constraints. Keywords: semi-Markov decision-making process, Markov stationary strategy, feasibility optimization, basic solutions to inequalities.

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