Simulation of water-table response to sea-level rise and change in recharge, Sandy Hook unit, Gateway National Recreation Area, New Jersey

Author(s):  
Glen B. Carleton ◽  
Emmanuel G. Charles ◽  
Alex R. Fiore ◽  
Richard B. Winston
2018 ◽  
Vol 181 ◽  
pp. 30-42 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher S. Johnson ◽  
Kenneth G. Miller ◽  
James V. Browning ◽  
Robert E. Kopp ◽  
Nicole S. Khan ◽  
...  

2008 ◽  
Vol 90 (4) ◽  
pp. 475-492 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew J. P. Cooper ◽  
Michael D. Beevers ◽  
Michael Oppenheimer

The Condor ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 121 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Samuel G Roberts ◽  
Rebecca A Longenecker ◽  
Matthew A Etterson ◽  
Chris S Elphick ◽  
Brian J Olsen ◽  
...  

Abstract Globally limited to 45,000 km2, salt marshes and their endemic species are threatened by numerous anthropogenic influences, including sea-level rise and predator pressure on survival and nesting success. Along the Atlantic coast of North America, Seaside (Ammospiza maritima) and Saltmarsh (A. caudacuta) sparrows are endemic to salt marshes, with Saltmarsh Sparrows declining by 9% annually. Because vital rates and factors affecting population persistence vary for both species, local estimates are necessary to best predict population persistence in response to management actions. We used a metapopulation model to estimate the population viability of the breeding Seaside and Saltmarsh sparrow populations in coastal New Jersey over a 42-yr period. We incorporated empirical data on the vital rates and abundances of these populations and simulated the effect of low (0.35 m) and high (0.75 m) levels of sea-level rise. We found that the Seaside Sparrow population persisted under both sea-level rise scenarios; however, the Saltmarsh Sparrow population reached a quasi-extinction threshold within 20 yr. Using the same framework, we modeled potential management scenarios that could increase the persistence probability of Saltmarsh Sparrows and found that fecundity and juvenile survival rates will require at least a 15% concurrent increase for the local population to persist beyond 2050. Future field research should evaluate the feasibility and effectiveness of management actions, such as predator control, for increasing Saltmarsh Sparrow vital rates in order to maintain the species in coastal New Jersey.


2009 ◽  
Vol 66 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 10-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenneth G. Miller ◽  
Peter J. Sugarman ◽  
James V. Browning ◽  
Benjamin P. Horton ◽  
Alissa Stanley ◽  
...  

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 168-192
Author(s):  
Judith S. Weis ◽  
Elizabeth Burke Watson ◽  
Beth Ravit ◽  
Charles Harman ◽  
Metthea Yepsen

Salt marshes are key coastal ecosystems that provide habitats for wildlife, including invertebrates, fishes, and birds. They provide ecosystem services such as protection from storm surges and waves, attenuation of flooding, sequestration of pollutants (e.g., blue carbon), and nutrient removal. They are currently under great threat from sea level rise (SLR). We collected information about trends in the horizontal extent (acreage) of New Jersey salt marshes and recent elevation changes compared with the current local rate of SLR in New Jersey, which is between 5 and 6 mm year−1. We found pervasive, although variable, rates of marsh loss that resulted from both anthropogenic disturbance as well as edge erosion and interior ponding expected from SLR. Elevation trends suggest that the current rates of SLR exceed most marsh elevation gains, although some Phragmites-dominated marshes keep pace with SLR. Four potential remedies to address current coastal trends of marsh loss were described in the context of New Jersey’s regulatory and management environment: protection of marsh inland migration pathways, altered management of Phragmites, thin layer sediment placement, and living shoreline installations. Proactive steps are necessary if coastal wetland ecosystems are to be maintained over the next few decades.


Data Series ◽  
10.3133/ds557 ◽  
2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amar Nayegandhi ◽  
Saisudha Vivekanandan ◽  
J.C. Brock ◽  
C.W. Wright ◽  
J.M. Bonisteel-Cormier ◽  
...  

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 766
Author(s):  
Basil Gomez

The Mānā Plain is a land apart, buffered from oceanographic influences by ~3–35 m high backshore deposits, and drained by an intricate, >100-y-old ditch system and modern, large-capacity pumps. Quantifying present and prospective inputs and outputs for the hydrologic landscape suggests that, although sea-level rise (SLR) will begin to impact ditch system operations in 2040, transient, event-based flooding caused by rainfall, not SLR induced, multi-mechanism flooding, will continue to pose the most immediate threat. This is because as sea level rises the ability of gravity flows to discharge storm runoff directly into the ocean will diminish, causing floodwater to pond in low-lying depressions. Estimates of the volume of water involved suggests the risk of flooding from surface water is likely to extend to 5.45 km2 of land that is presently ≤ 1 m above sea level. This land will not be permanently inundated, but weeks of pumping may be required to remove the floodwater. Increasing pumping capacity and preserving some operational ability to discharge storm runoff under the influence of gravity will enhance the ditch system’s resilience to SLR and ensure it continues to fulfill its primary functions, of maintaining the water table below the root zone and diverting storm runoff away from farmland, at least until the end of this century.


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