Volcanic-ash dispersion modeling of the 2006 eruption of Augustine Volcano using the Puff model: Chapter 21 in The 2006 eruption of Augustine Volcano, Alaska

2010 ◽  
pp. 507-526 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter W. Webley ◽  
Kenneson G. Dean ◽  
Jonathan Dehn ◽  
John E. Bailey ◽  
Rorik Peterson
Keyword(s):  
Volcanic Ash ◽  
Dispersion Modeling ◽  
Ash Dispersion ◽  
2006 Eruption

scholarly journals Determination of time- and height-resolved volcanic ash emissions and their use for quantitative ash dispersion modeling: the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 4333-4351 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Stohl ◽  
A. J. Prata ◽  
S. Eckhardt ◽  
L. Clarisse ◽  
A. Durant ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Volcanic Ash ◽  
Dispersion Model ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
General Nature ◽  
Aviation Industry ◽  
Dispersion Modeling ◽  
Source Information ◽  
European Area ◽  
Ash Dispersion

Abstract. The April–May, 2010 volcanic eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland caused significant economic and social disruption in Europe whilst state of the art measurements and ash dispersion forecasts were heavily criticized by the aviation industry. Here we demonstrate for the first time that large improvements can be made in quantitative predictions of the fate of volcanic ash emissions, by using an inversion scheme that couples a priori source information and the output of a Lagrangian dispersion model with satellite data to estimate the volcanic ash source strength as a function of altitude and time. From the inversion, we obtain a total fine ash emission of the eruption of 8.3 ± 4.2 Tg for particles in the size range of 2.8–28 μm diameter. We evaluate the results of our model results with a posteriori ash emissions using independent ground-based, airborne and space-borne measurements both in case studies and statistically. Subsequently, we estimate the area over Europe affected by volcanic ash above certain concentration thresholds relevant for the aviation industry. We find that during three episodes in April and May, volcanic ash concentrations at some altitude in the atmosphere exceeded the limits for the "Normal" flying zone in up to 14 % (6–16 %), 2 % (1–3 %) and 7 % (4–11 %), respectively, of the European area. For a limit of 2 mg m−3 only two episodes with fractions of 1.5 % (0.2–2.8 %) and 0.9 % (0.1–1.6 %) occurred, while the current "No-Fly" zone criterion of 4 mg m−3 was rarely exceeded. Our results have important ramifications for determining air space closures and for real-time quantitative estimations of ash concentrations. Furthermore, the general nature of our method yields better constraints on the distribution and fate of volcanic ash in the Earth system.

scholarly journals Determination of time- and height-resolved volcanic ash emissions for quantitative ash dispersion modeling: the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 5541-5588 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Stohl ◽  
A. J. Prata ◽  
S. Eckhardt ◽  
L. Clarisse ◽  
A. Durant ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Volcanic Ash ◽  
Size Range ◽  
Dispersion Model ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
General Nature ◽  
Aviation Industry ◽  
Dispersion Modeling ◽  
Source Information ◽  
Ash Dispersion

Abstract. The April–May 2010 volcanic eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland caused significant economic and social disruption in Europe whilst state of the art measurements and ash dispersion forecasts were heavily criticized by the aviation industry. Here we demonstrate for the first time that dramatic improvements can be made in quantitative predictions of the fate of volcanic ash emissions, by using an inversion scheme that couples a priori source information and the output of a Lagrangian dispersion model with satellite data to estimate the volcanic ash source strength as a function of altitude and time. From the inversion, we obtain a total fine ash emission of the eruption of 8.3 ± 4.2 Tg for particles in the size range of 2.8–28 μm diameter and extrapolate this to a total ash emission of 11.9 ± 5.9 Tg for the size range of 0.25–250 μm. We evaluate the results of our a posteriori model using independent ground-based, airborne and space-borne measurements both in case studies and statistically. Subsequently, we estimate the area over Europe affected by volcanic ash above certain concentration thresholds relevant for the aviation industry. We find that during three episodes in April and May, volcanic ash concentrations at some altitude in the atmosphere exceeded the limits for the "normal" flying zone in up to 14% (6–16%), 2% (1–3%) and 7% (4–11%), respectively, of the European area. For a limit of 2 mg m−3 only two episodes with fractions of 1.5% (0.2–2.8%) and 0.9% (0.1–1.6%) occurred, while the current "no-fly" zone criterion of 4 mg m−3 was rarely exceeded. Our results have important ramifications for determining air space closures and for real-time quantitative estimations of ash concentrations. Furthermore, the general nature of our method yields better constraints on the distribution and fate of volcanic ash in the Earth system.

scholarly journals Development and application of a backscatter lidar forward operator for quantitative validation of aerosol dispersion models and future data assimilation

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 4705-4726 ◽  
Author(s):  
Armin Geisinger ◽  
Andreas Behrendt ◽  
Volker Wulfmeyer ◽  
Jens Strohbach ◽  
Jochen Förstner ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Volcanic Ash ◽  
Model Systems ◽  
Spherical Particles ◽  
Lidar Measurement ◽  
Backscatter Coefficient ◽  
Future Data ◽  
Sensitivity Studies ◽  
Ash Dispersion ◽  
Forward Operator

Abstract. A new backscatter lidar forward operator was developed which is based on the distinct calculation of the aerosols' backscatter and extinction properties. The forward operator was adapted to the COSMO-ART ash dispersion simulation of the Eyjafjallajökull eruption in 2010. While the particle number concentration was provided as a model output variable, the scattering properties of each individual particle type were determined by dedicated scattering calculations. Sensitivity studies were performed to estimate the uncertainties related to the assumed particle properties. Scattering calculations for several types of non-spherical particles required the usage of T-matrix routines. Due to the distinct calculation of the backscatter and extinction properties of the models' volcanic ash size classes, the sensitivity studies could be made for each size class individually, which is not the case for forward models based on a fixed lidar ratio. Finally, the forward-modeled lidar profiles have been compared to automated ceilometer lidar (ACL) measurements both qualitatively and quantitatively while the attenuated backscatter coefficient was chosen as a suitable physical quantity. As the ACL measurements were not calibrated automatically, their calibration had to be performed using satellite lidar and ground-based Raman lidar measurements. A slight overestimation of the model-predicted volcanic ash number density was observed. Major requirements for future data assimilation of data from ACL have been identified, namely, the availability of calibrated lidar measurement data, a scattering database for atmospheric aerosols, a better representation and coverage of aerosols by the ash dispersion model, and more investigation in backscatter lidar forward operators which calculate the backscatter coefficient directly for each individual aerosol type. The introduced forward operator offers the flexibility to be adapted to a multitude of model systems and measurement setups.

scholarly journals Examining the influence of meteorological simulations forced by different initial and boundary conditions in volcanic ash dispersion modelling

2016 ◽  
Vol 176-177 ◽  
pp. 29-42 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriela C. Mulena ◽  
David G. Allende ◽  
Salvador E. Puliafito ◽  
Susan G. Lakkis ◽  
Pablo G. Cremades ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Conditions ◽  
Volcanic Ash ◽  
Dispersion Modelling ◽  
Ash Dispersion ◽  
Initial And Boundary Conditions

Sensitivity analysis of dispersion modeling of volcanic ash from Eyjafjallajökull in May 2010

2012 ◽  
Vol 117 (D20) ◽  
Author(s):  
B. J. Devenish ◽  
P. N. Francis ◽  
B. T. Johnson ◽  
R. S. J. Sparks ◽  
D. J. Thomson
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Volcanic Ash ◽  
Dispersion Modeling ◽  
Analysis Of Dispersion
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