Study of earthquake recurrence intervals on the Wasatch Fault at the Kaysville site, Utah

1981 ◽  
Author(s):  
F.H. Swan ◽  
D.P. Schwartz ◽  
K.L. Hanson ◽  
P.L. Knuepfer ◽  
L.S. Cluff
Keyword(s):  
Earthquake Recurrence ◽  
Recurrence Intervals ◽  
Wasatch Fault

Study of earthquake recurrence intervals on the Wasatch Fault at the Hobble Creek Site, Utah

1981 ◽  
Author(s):  
F.H. Swan ◽  
D.P. Schwartz ◽  
L.S. Cluff ◽  
K.L. Hanson ◽  
P.L. Knuepfer
Keyword(s):  
Earthquake Recurrence ◽  
Recurrence Intervals ◽  
Wasatch Fault

scholarly journals Study of earthquake recurrence intervals on the Wasatch Fault, Utah

1981 ◽  
Author(s):  
F.H. Swan ◽  
K.L. Hanson ◽  
D.P. Schwartz ◽  
P.L. Knuepfer
Keyword(s):  
Earthquake Recurrence ◽  
Recurrence Intervals ◽  
Wasatch Fault

Bounds on the Average Recurrence Interval of Major Earthquakes Along the Haiyuan Fault In North-Central China

1988 ◽  
Vol 59 (3) ◽  
pp. 81-89 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhang Peizhen ◽  
Peter Molnar ◽  
Zhang Weigi ◽  
Deng Qidong ◽  
Wang Yipeng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Slip Rate ◽  
Recurrence Interval ◽  
Central China ◽  
Great Earthquake ◽  
Average Amount ◽  
Earthquake Recurrence ◽  
Surface Rupture ◽  
North Central ◽  
Recurrence Intervals ◽  
Historic Record

Abstract Evidence of surface rupture has been found in trenches near Caiyuan and Shaomayin along the Haiyuan fault, where a great earthquake occurred in 1920. In addition to the 1920 earthquake, faulting occurred at least once between 2590 ± 190 years and 1525 ± 170 years B.P. in Caiyuan, and there probably was another event since 1525 ± 170 years B.P. The formation and later tilting of fault-related, scarp-derived colluvial wedges in the Shaomayin trench appear to record the occurrence of two pre-1920 events in the last 2200–3700 years, but there could have been three or more events. The average recurrence interval for great earthquakes along the Haiyuan fault probably exceeds 700 years, for the 1920 Haiyuan earthquake is the only major event to have been reported in this area in as many years of recorded history. Using a Holocene slip rate along this fault of 8 ± 2 mm/yr, and 8 m as the average amount of offset associated with past great events that have been determined by our previous studies, the resultant earthquake recurrence intervals would be from 800 to 1400 years. The results from our trenches and the historic record are consistent with this range.

scholarly journals The impact of earthquake cycle variability on neotectonic and paleoseismic slip rate estimates

Solid Earth ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-25 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Styron
Keyword(s):  
Late Quaternary ◽  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Slip Rate ◽  
Earthquake Recurrence ◽  
Coseismic Slip ◽  
Slip Rates ◽  
True Value ◽  
Recurrence Intervals ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Earthquake Cycles

Abstract. Because of the natural (aleatoric) variability in earthquake recurrence intervals and coseismic displacements on a fault, cumulative slip on a fault does not increase linearly or perfectly step-wise with time; instead, some amount of variability in shorter-term slip rates results. Though this variability could greatly affect the accuracy of neotectonic (i.e., late Quaternary) and paleoseismic slip rate estimates, these effects have not been quantified. In this study, idealized faults with four different, representative, earthquake recurrence distributions are created with equal mean recurrence intervals (1000 years) and coseismic slip distributions, and the variability in slip rate estimates over 500- to 100 000-year measurement windows is calculated for all faults through Monte Carlo simulations. Slip rates are calculated as net offset divided by elapsed time, as in a typical neotectonic study. The recurrence distributions used are quasi-periodic, unclustered and clustered lognormal distributions, and an unclustered exponential distribution. The results demonstrate that the most important parameter is the coefficient of variation (CV = standard deviation ∕ mean) of the recurrence distributions rather than the shape of the distribution itself. Slip rate variability over short timescales (< 5000 years or 5 mean earthquake cycles) is quite high, varying by a factor of 3 or more from the mean, but decreases with time and is close to stable after ∼40 000 years (40 mean earthquake cycles). This variability is higher for recurrence distributions with a higher CV. The natural variability in the slip rate estimates compared to the true value is then used to estimate the epistemic uncertainty in a single slip rate measurement (as one would make in a geological study) in the absence of any measurement uncertainty. This epistemic uncertainty is very high (a factor of 2 or more) for measurement windows of a few mean earthquake cycles (as in a paleoseismic slip rate estimate), but decreases rapidly to a factor of 1–2 with > 5 mean earthquake cycles (as in a neotectonic slip rate study). These uncertainties are independent of, and should be propagated with, uncertainties in fault displacement and geochronologic measurements used to estimate slip rates. They may then aid in the comparison of slip rates from different methods or the evaluation of potential slip rate changes over time.

Estimating the probability of occurrences of surface faulting earthquakes on the Wasatch fault zone, Utah

1980 ◽  
Vol 70 (5) ◽  
pp. 1463-1478
Author(s):  
Lloyd S. Cluff ◽  
Ashok S. Patwardhan ◽  
Kevin J. Coppersmith
Keyword(s):  
Fault Zone ◽  
Late Quaternary ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Historical Seismicity ◽  
Generation Process ◽  
Large Magnitude ◽  
Earthquake Recurrence ◽  
Slip Rates ◽  
Geological Information ◽  
Wasatch Fault

abstract Although geological and geomorphic evidence strongly suggests that the Wasatch fault zone has generated large-magnitude earthquakes in late Quaternary time, the fault zone has not been associated with earthquakes greater than magnitude 512 in the past 133 yr. Therefore, realistic estimates of the likelihood of future damaging earthquakes must be based on more than historical seismicity data. The data base can be expanded by collecting site-specific geological information on earthquake recurrence and fault slip rates and by using this information in a model of the earthquake generation process. Uncertainties in both the physical basis for the model and in the geological parameters dictate a probabilistic approach. A semi-Markov model provides real-time probabilities of occurrence of at least one moderate to large (magnitude 612 or larger) earthquake at either of two sites for given elapsed times. Probabilities derived for the entire Wasatch fault zone are based on earthquake recurrence data on individual fault segments and are especially sensitive to elapsed times on individual segments.

Timing of formation of forebergs in the northeastern Gobi Altai, Mongolia: implications for estimating mountain uplift rates and earthquake recurrence intervals

1999 ◽  
Vol 156 (3) ◽  
pp. 457-464 ◽  
Author(s):  
LEWIS A. OWEN ◽  
DICKSON CUNNINGHAM ◽  
BENEDICT W. M. RICHARDS ◽  
EDWARD RHODES ◽  
BRIAN F. WINDLEY ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Earthquake Recurrence ◽  
Uplift Rates ◽  
Recurrence Intervals

Cosmogenic Ages for Earthquake Recurrence Intervals and Debris Flow Fan Deposition, Owens Valley, California

Science ◽  
1995 ◽  
Vol 270 (5235) ◽  
pp. 447-450 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. R. Bierman ◽  
A. R. Gillespie ◽  
M. W. Caffee
Keyword(s):  
Debris Flow ◽  
Earthquake Recurrence ◽  
Owens Valley ◽  
Recurrence Intervals
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