scholarly journals Using information from global climate models to inform policymaking—The role of the U.S. Geological Survey

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam Terando ◽  
David Reidmiller ◽  
Steven W. Hostetler ◽  
Jeremy S. Littell ◽  
T. Douglas Beard ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Geological Survey ◽  
The U.S

scholarly journals Questioning orthodoxy

2005 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-1
Author(s):  
DAVID WALTON
Keyword(s):  
Energy Transfer ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Anthropogenic Effects ◽  
The World ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Original Question ◽  
The Moment

Recently hearing Fred Singer from the USA lecture on what he perceives to be the uncritical ways in which global change has been attributed to anthropogenic effects reminded me of the importance we should attach to those who question our current beliefs. For Fred it was not sufficient that the IPCC had engaged many of the best scientific brains in the world to reach the existing consensus; they might all be wrong because the original question or assumption was wrong. Fred was strongly challenged by the audience of Antarctic scientists, not least because some of his quotations were selective in order to initiate discussion. And we know that there are areas of considerable weakness amongst the several proxies used to compute the rate of temperature change, that we have only poorly quantified and modelled the role of clouds, energy transfer between the oceans and atmosphere, water vapour as a greenhouse gas and that we have yet to be certain that the Global Climate Models really do have all the most significant driving variables. So the IPCC conclusions are drawn on the best available evidence with complementary patterns derived from several different approaches and constitute the best we can do at the moment.

3D Modeling of Supersaturated H2O/H2O2 on Early Mars Climate during the Noachia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antony Delavois ◽  
François Forget ◽  
Martin Turbet ◽  
Ehouarn Millour
Keyword(s):  
Liquid Water ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Supersaturation Ratio ◽  
3 Dimensional ◽  
High Supersaturation ◽  
1D Model ◽  
Early Mars

<p>The climate of Mars during its first billion years is one of the most intriguing question in our understanding of the Solar System. The planet was host of a large amount of liquid water flowing on the surface throughout the Noachian era, approximatively 4Gya. Geomorphological observations is the main evidence for liquid water since valley networks and lakes are still visible on the surface, although dry nowadays.</p> <p>Different studies have tried to reproduce the conditions that may have occured on the planet, trying to find an atmospheric process or composition that could solve the Faint Young Sun Paradox. Theses modeling studies, through the use of 3-dimensional Global Climate Models struggled to warm sufficiently the past climate of Mars, even considering different greenhouse gases, the role of clouds, meteoritic impact or even volcanism (XXX). However, the presence of H2 could be an interesting solution for a sustainable warming as some recent studies suggest (Turbet and Forget, 2021). Another recent study (Ito et al. 2020) suggested that H2O2 might be a convincing candidate but has to be in high supersaturation ratio in the atmosphere, even though it only used a simplified 1D model and relatively high supersaturation levels.</p> <p>We try here to explore more in detail the scenario of supersaturated H2O2 and H2O, that also might be a specy able to provide a sufficient global warming under supersaturated conditions or through the formation of high altitude clouds. Since H2O is the major source of H2O2 in the atmosphere, it is important to assess whether the H2O content in the atmosphere is enough to provide high quantities of H2O2. We also try to constrain the theoritical supersaturation level of H2O/H2O2 that will allow the warming of the climate above 273K, but with a detailled 3D GCM simulation. Even if we do not tackle the question whether the supersaturation hypothesis is realistic or not, these results give a better understanding of  what would be Early Mars' climate under such conditions.</p>

scholarly journals The role of regional feedbacks in glacial inception on Baffin Island: the interaction of ice flow and meteorology

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (10) ◽  
pp. 1441-1462
Author(s):  
Leah Birch ◽  
Timothy Cronin ◽  
Eli Tziperman
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Baffin Island ◽  
Ice Flow ◽  
Geological Evidence ◽  
Ice Caps ◽  
Outer Domain

Abstract. Over the past 0.8 million years, 100 kyr ice ages have dominated Earth's climate with geological evidence suggesting the last glacial inception began in the mountains of Baffin Island. Currently, state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) have difficulty simulating glacial inception, possibly due in part to their coarse horizontal resolution and the neglect of ice flow dynamics in some models. We attempt to address the role of regional feedbacks in the initial inception problem on Baffin Island by asynchronously coupling the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, configured as a high-resolution inner domain over Baffin and an outer domain incorporating much of North America, to an ice flow model using the shallow ice approximation. The mass balance is calculated from WRF simulations and used to drive the ice model, which updates the ice extent and elevation, that then serve as inputs to the next WRF run. We drive the regional WRF configuration using atmospheric boundary conditions from 1986 that correspond to a relatively cold summer, and with 115 kya insolation. Initially, ice accumulates on mountain glaciers, driving downslope ice flow which expands the size of the ice caps. However, continued iterations of the atmosphere and ice models reveal a stagnation of the ice sheet on Baffin Island, driven by melting due to warmer temperatures at the margins of the ice caps. This warming is caused by changes in the regional circulation that are forced by elevation changes due to the ice growth. A stabilizing feedback between ice elevation and atmospheric circulation thus prevents full inception from occurring.

scholarly journals How Well Do Global Climate Models Simulate the Variability of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Associated with ENSO?

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (15) ◽  
pp. 5673-5692 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hui Wang ◽  
Lindsey Long ◽  
Arun Kumar ◽  
Wanqiu Wang ◽  
Jae-Kyung E. Schemm ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Track Density ◽  
Cp El Niño ◽  
Ep El Niño ◽  
The U.S

Abstract The variability of Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in model simulations is assessed and compared with observations. The model experiments are 28-yr simulations forced with the observed sea surface temperature from 1982 to 2009. The simulations were coordinated by the U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability Research Program (CLIVAR) Hurricane Working Group and conducted with five global climate models (GCMs) with a total of 16 ensemble members. The model performance is evaluated based on both individual model ensemble means and multimodel ensemble mean. The latter has the highest anomaly correlation (0.86) for the interannual variability of TCs. Previous observational studies show a strong association between ENSO and Atlantic TC activity, as well as distinctions during eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) El Niño events. The analysis of track density and TC origin indicates that each model has different mean biases. Overall, the GCMs simulate the variability of Atlantic TCs well with weaker activity during EP El Niño and stronger activity during La Niña. For CP El Niño, there is a slight increase in the number of TCs as compared with EP El Niño. However, the spatial distribution of track density and TC origin is less consistent among the models. Particularly, there is no indication of increasing TC activity over the U.S. southeast coastal region during CP El Niño as in observations. The difference between the models and observations is likely due to the bias of the models in response to the shift of tropical heating associated with CP El Niño, as well as the model bias in the mean circulation.

Extreme Events in High Resolution CMCC Regional and Global Climate Models

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Enrico Scoccimarro ◽  
Silvio Gualdi ◽  
Antonella Sanna ◽  
Edoardo Bucchignani ◽  
Myriam Montesarchio
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models

scholarly journals Global climatology and trends in convective environments from ERA5 and rawinsonde data

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mateusz Taszarek ◽  
John T. Allen ◽  
Mattia Marchio ◽  
Harold E. Brooks
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Convective Precipitation ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
Rawinsonde Data

AbstractGlobally, thunderstorms are responsible for a significant fraction of rainfall, and in the mid-latitudes often produce extreme weather, including large hail, tornadoes and damaging winds. Despite this importance, how the global frequency of thunderstorms and their accompanying hazards has changed over the past 4 decades remains unclear. Large-scale diagnostics applied to global climate models have suggested that the frequency of thunderstorms and their intensity is likely to increase in the future. Here, we show that according to ERA5 convective available potential energy (CAPE) and convective precipitation (CP) have decreased over the tropics and subtropics with simultaneous increases in 0–6 km wind shear (BS06). Conversely, rawinsonde observations paint a different picture across the mid-latitudes with increasing CAPE and significant decreases to BS06. Differing trends and disagreement between ERA5 and rawinsondes observed over some regions suggest that results should be interpreted with caution, especially for CAPE and CP across tropics where uncertainty is the highest and reliable long-term rawinsonde observations are missing.

scholarly journals Regions of intensification of extreme snowfall under future warming

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lennart Quante ◽  
Sven N. Willner ◽  
Robin Middelanis ◽  
Anders Levermann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Observational Data ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Average Intensity ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Future Warming

AbstractDue to climate change the frequency and character of precipitation are changing as the hydrological cycle intensifies. With regards to snowfall, global warming has two opposing influences; increasing humidity enables intense snowfall, whereas higher temperatures decrease the likelihood of snowfall. Here we show an intensification of extreme snowfall across large areas of the Northern Hemisphere under future warming. This is robust across an ensemble of global climate models when they are bias-corrected with observational data. While mean daily snowfall decreases, both the 99th and the 99.9th percentiles of daily snowfall increase in many regions in the next decades, especially for Northern America and Asia. Additionally, the average intensity of snowfall events exceeding these percentiles as experienced historically increases in many regions. This is likely to pose a challenge to municipalities in mid to high latitudes. Overall, extreme snowfall events are likely to become an increasingly important impact of climate change in the next decades, even if they will become rarer, but not necessarily less intense, in the second half of the century.

scholarly journals Reassessing Existing Reservoir Supply Capacity and Management Resilience under Climate Change and Sediment Deposition

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (13) ◽  
pp. 1819
Author(s):  
Eleni S. Bekri ◽  
Polychronis Economou ◽  
Panayotis C. Yannopoulos ◽  
Alexander C. Demetracopoulos
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Sediment Deposition ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Exceedance Probability ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
Management Scenario ◽  
Supply Capacity

Freshwater resources are limited and seasonally and spatially unevenly distributed. Thus, in water resources management plans, storage reservoirs play a vital role in safeguarding drinking, irrigation, hydropower and livestock water supply. In the last decades, the dams’ negative effects, such as fragmentation of water flow and sediment transport, are considered in decision-making, for achieving an optimal balance between human needs and healthy riverine and coastal ecosystems. Currently, operation of existing reservoirs is challenged by increasing water demand, climate change effects and active storage reduction due to sediment deposition, jeopardizing their supply capacity. This paper proposes a methodological framework to reassess supply capacity and management resilience for an existing reservoir under these challenges. Future projections are derived by plausible climate scenarios and global climate models and by stochastic simulation of historic data. An alternative basic reservoir management scenario with a very low exceedance probability is derived. Excess water volumes are investigated under a probabilistic prism for enabling multiple-purpose water demands. Finally, this method is showcased to the Ladhon Reservoir (Greece). The probable total benefit from water allocated to the various water uses is estimated to assist decision makers in examining the tradeoffs between the probable additional benefit and risk of exceedance.

scholarly journals Projecting heat-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios in China

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jun Yang ◽  
Maigeng Zhou ◽  
Zhoupeng Ren ◽  
Mengmeng Li ◽  
Boguang Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Specific Effect ◽  
Northern China ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Population Ageing ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios

AbstractRecent studies have reported a variety of health consequences of climate change. However, the vulnerability of individuals and cities to climate change remains to be evaluated. We project the excess cause-, age-, region-, and education-specific mortality attributable to future high temperatures in 161 Chinese districts/counties using 28 global climate models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). To assess the influence of population ageing on the projection of future heat-related mortality, we further project the age-specific effect estimates under five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Heat-related excess mortality is projected to increase from 1.9% (95% eCI: 0.2–3.3%) in the 2010s to 2.4% (0.4–4.1%) in the 2030 s and 5.5% (0.5–9.9%) in the 2090 s under RCP8.5, with corresponding relative changes of 0.5% (0.0–1.2%) and 3.6% (−0.5–7.5%). The projected slopes are steeper in southern, eastern, central and northern China. People with cardiorespiratory diseases, females, the elderly and those with low educational attainment could be more affected. Population ageing amplifies future heat-related excess deaths 2.3- to 5.8-fold under different SSPs, particularly for the northeast region. Our findings can help guide public health responses to ameliorate the risk of climate change.

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