Analysis of flood-magnitude and flood-frequency data for streamflow-gaging stations in the Delaware and North Branch Susquehanna River Basins in Pennsylvania

2007 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark A. Roland ◽  
Marla H. Stuckey
Keyword(s):  
River Basins ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Frequency Data ◽  
Susquehanna River ◽  
Flood Magnitude

Does development reduce fatalities from natural disasters? New evidence for floods

2013 ◽  
Vol 18 (6) ◽  
pp. 649-679 ◽  
Author(s):  
Susana Ferreira ◽  
Kirk Hamilton ◽  
Jeffrey R. Vincent
Keyword(s):  
Natural Disasters ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Lower Income ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Flood Magnitude ◽  
Lower Income Countries ◽  
The Impact ◽  
New Evidence ◽  
Large Floods

AbstractWe analyze the impact of development on flood fatalities using a new data set of 2,171 large floods in 92 countries between 1985 and 2008. Our results challenge the conventional wisdom that development results in fewer fatalities during natural disasters. Results indicating that higher income and better governance reduce fatalities during flood events do not hold up when unobserved country heterogeneity and within-country correlation of standard errors are taken into account. We find that income does have a significant, indirect effect on flood fatalities by affecting flood frequency and flood magnitude, but this effect is nonmonotonic, with net reductions in fatalities occurring only in lower income countries. We find little evidence that improved governance affects flood fatalities either directly or indirectly.

scholarly journals Flood Flow Probability Distribution Model Selection on Niger/Benue River Basins in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
pp. 76-94
Author(s):  
Itolima Ologhadien
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Flood Frequency Analysis ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Type Iii ◽  
Pearson Type ◽  
Best Fit

Flood frequency analysis is a crucial component of flood risk management which seeks to establish a quantile relationship between peak discharges and their exceedance (or non-exceedance) probabilities, for planning, design and management of infrastructure in river basins. This paper evaluates the performance of five probability distribution models using the method of moments for parameter estimation, with five GoF-tests and Q-Q plots for selection of best –fit- distribution. The probability distributions models employed are; Gumbel (EV1), 2-parameter lognormal (LN2), log Pearson type III (LP3), Pearson type III(PR3), and Generalised Extreme Value( GEV). The five statistical goodness – of – fit tests, namely; modified index of agreement (Dmod), relative root mean square error (RRMSE), Nash – Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), Percent bias (PBIAS), ratio of RMSE and standard deviation of the measurement (RSR) were used to identify the most suitable distribution models. The study was conducted using annual maximum series of nine gauge stations in both Benue and Niger River Basins in Nigeria. The study reveals that GEV was the best – fit distribution in six gauging stations, LP3 was best – fit distribution in two gauging stations, and PR3 is best- fit distribution in one gauging station. This study has provided a significant contribution to knowledge in the choice of distribution models for predicting extreme hydrological events for design of water infrastructure in Nigeria. It is recommended that GEV, PR3 and LP3 should be considered in the development of regional flood frequency using the existing hydrological map of Nigeria.

scholarly journals Trends in floods in West Africa: analysis based on 11 catchments in the region

2015 ◽  
Vol 19 (11) ◽  
pp. 4707-4719 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. N. Nka ◽  
L. Oudin ◽  
H. Karambiri ◽  
J. E. Paturel ◽  
P. Ribstein
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
West Africa ◽  
Vegetation Indices ◽  
Contingency Tables ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Trend Test ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Rainfall Index ◽  
Flood Magnitude ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. After the drought of the 1970s in West Africa, the variability in rainfall and land use changes mostly affected flow, and recently flooding has been said to be an increasingly common occurrence throughout the whole of West Africa. These changes have raised many questions about the impact of climate change on the flood regimes in West African countries. This paper investigates whether floods are becoming more frequent or more severe and to what extent climate patterns have been responsible for these changes. We analyzed the trends in the floods occurring in 11 catchments within West Africa's main climate zones. The methodology includes two methods for sampling flood events, namely the AM (annual maximum) method and the POT (peak over threshold), and two perspectives of analysis are presented: long-term analysis based on two long flood time series and a regional perspective involving 11 catchments with shorter series. The Mann–Kendall trend test and the Pettitt break test were used to detect nonstationarities in the time series. The trends detected in flood time series were compared to the rainfall index trends and vegetation indices using contingency tables in order to identify the main driver of change in flood magnitude and flood frequency. The relation between the flood index and the physiographic index was evaluated through a success criterion and the Cramer criterion calculated from the contingency tables. The results show the existence of trends in flood magnitude and flood frequency time series, with two main patterns. Sahelian floods show increasing flood trends and one Sudanian. catchment presents decreasing flood trends. For the overall catchments studied, trends in the maximum 5-day consecutive rainfall index (R5d) show good coherence with trends in flood, while the trends in normalized difference vegetation indices (NDVIs) do not show a significant agreement with flood trends, meaning that this index has possibly no impact on the behavior of floods in the region.

scholarly journals Analysis of Peak Flow Distribution for Bridge Collapse Sites

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 52 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fahmidah U. Ashraf ◽  
Madeleine M. Flint
Keyword(s):  
Peak Flow ◽  
Flow Distribution ◽  
Heavy Tail ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Peak Flows ◽  
Tail Distribution ◽  
Bridge Collapse ◽  
Flood Magnitude ◽  
Distribution Parameters

Bridge collapse risk can be evaluated more rigorously if the hydrologic characteristics of bridge collapse sites are demystified, particularly for peak flows. In this study, forty-two bridge collapse sites were analyzed to find any trend in the peak flows. Flood frequency and other statistical analyses were used to derive peak flow distribution parameters, identify trends linked to flood magnitude and flood behavior (how extreme), quantify the return periods of peak flows, and compare different approaches of flood frequency in deriving the return periods. The results indicate that most of the bridge collapse sites exhibit heavy tail distribution and flood magnitudes that are well consistent when regressed over the drainage area. A comparison of different flood frequency analyses reveals that there is no single approach that is best generally for the dataset studied. These results indicate a commonality in flood behavior (outliers are expected, not random; heavy-tail property) for the collapse dataset studied and provides some basis for extending the findings obtained for the 42 collapsed bridges to other sites to assess the risk of future collapses.

Flood frequency analysis for the Red River at Winnipeg

2001 ◽  
Vol 28 (3) ◽  
pp. 355-362 ◽  
Author(s):  
Donald H Burn ◽  
N K Goel
Keyword(s):  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Red River ◽  
Noise Model ◽  
Flood Frequency Analysis ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Correlation Structures ◽  
Flood Magnitude ◽  
Mixed Noise ◽  
Flood Quantiles

This paper reviews the flood frequency characteristics of the Red River at Winnipeg. The impacts of persistence in the flood series on estimates of flood quantiles and their associated confidence intervals are examined. This is done by generating a large number of data sequences using a mixed noise model that preserves the short-term and long-term correlation structures of the observed flood series. The results reveal that persistence in the data series can lead to a slight increase in the expected flood magnitude for a given return period. More importantly, persistence is shown to dramatically increase the uncertainty associated with estimated flood quantiles. The 117-year flood series for the Red River at Winnipeg is demonstrated to be equivalent to roughly 45 years of independent data.Key words: flood frequency, extreme events, simulation, historical data.

scholarly journals The National Flood-Frequency Program -- Methods for Estimating Flood Magnitude and Frequency in the Rural Areas in Maryland, 2001

Fact Sheet ◽  
2001 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert R. Mason ◽  
Luis A. Fuste ◽  
Jeffrey N. King ◽  
Wilbert O. Thomas
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Flood Magnitude
Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document