scholarly journals Luck as a Double-Edged Sword: Personnel and Performance Changes after Lucky Outcomes in the National Football League

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyle Siler
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Organizational Learning ◽  
Risk Aversion ◽  
National Football League ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Recovery Rates ◽  
Future Performance ◽  
Perverse Incentives ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Career Incentives

Luck is an omnipresent factor which influences experiences and outcomes for individuals and organizations. This article analyzes how lucky and unlucky outcomes influence future organizational learning, decision-making and performance. Team statistics and outcomes are analyzed over 769 National Football League seasons for 32 franchises from 1990-2015. Four specific sources of luck are identified and measured: 1) divergence of win outcomes from actual team quality; 2) difficulty of opposition; 3) fumble recovery rates and 4) player injuries. Teams and players have little or no influence over these lucky factors, which nevertheless influence game outcomes, and by extension, the careers of players and coaches. Luck alters game outcomes and in turn significantly influences the retention or firing of coaches and players, which shapes their career incentives and decision-making. In addition to negatively affecting future performance via distorted learning, luck can also generate perverse incentives; in this case, encouraging risk aversion and scapegoating. Mistaking noise for signal – and conflating luck with skill – is conducive to poorer future decisions and outcomes. Paradoxically, luck can provide a means of skill-based advantage for savvy decision-makers, who learn more effectively from noisy feedback than others who are misled.

CAN BAYESIAN METHODS MAKE DATA AND ANALYSES MORE RELEVANT TO DECISION MAKERS?

2001 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 114-122 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven H. Sheingold
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Bayesian Methods ◽  
Paradigm Shift ◽  
Relevant Information ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Evidence Based ◽  
Critical Importance ◽  
Bayesian Approaches ◽  
Bayesian Analyses ◽  
And Performance

Decision making in health care has become increasingly reliant on information technology, evidence-based processes, and performance measurement. It is therefore a time at which it is of critical importance to make data and analyses more relevant to decision makers. Those who support Bayesian approaches contend that their analyses provide more relevant information for decision making than do classical or “frequentist” methods, and that a paradigm shift to the former is long overdue. While formal Bayesian analyses may eventually play an important role in decision making, there are several obstacles to overcome if these methods are to gain acceptance in an environment dominated by frequentist approaches. Supporters of Bayesian statistics must find more accommodating approaches to making their case, especially in finding ways to make these methods more transparent and accessible. Moreover, they must better understand the decision-making environment they hope to influence. This paper discusses these issues and provides some suggestions for overcoming some of these barriers to greater acceptance.

The Level of Organizational Learning and its Impact on Job Performance: A Field Study at the Private Banks in Hodeida City

2021 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 81-110
Author(s):  
Abdulkarem Qasem Ali Al-Baeem ◽  
Prof. Dr. Abdulmalek Ahmed Ahmed Al-Maamari
Keyword(s):  
Organizational Learning ◽  
Job Performance ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Demographic Variables ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Private Banks ◽  
Study Population ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Descriptive Method ◽  
Very High

This study aimed to identify the level of organizational learning and its impact on job performance at the private banks in Hodeida City. The analytical descriptive method was used and a questionnaire was administered to all employees at 8 private banks, selected by the complete census method. A hundred and sixty-four questionnaires were distributed, but only 135 questionnaires were returned and analyzed. Major findings revealed that there was a high positive impact for the dimensions of organizational learning on the level of job performance in the private banks in Hodeida. Also, the level of practicing organizational learning as well as job performance of the staff was very high. Further, there were no significant differences in the level of organizational learning and performance due to the demographic variables of the study population. It was recommended that banks should promote coordination with other banks and financial institutions, and support researches that would generate new knowledge and create an appropriate environment for creative decision makers.

scholarly journals Risk Aversion and Emotions in DoND

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 32 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mehmet Burak Kahyaoglu ◽  
Özgür Ican
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Cognitive Processes ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Test Bed ◽  
Television Shows ◽  
Reading Software ◽  
Decision Making Behavior ◽  
Face Reading ◽  
Tv Show

Contrary to the traditional economic school of thought, emotions known to have a huge effect on cognitive processes leading to decisions. In this context, it can be observed that some television shows provide a very appropriate test-bed for examining decision-making behavior under risk. This study attempts to estimate the degree of Arrow-Pratt RRA for a group of decision-makers composed of 101 “Deal or No Deal” TV show contestants. For further analysis, a “face-reading” software was employed in order to identify emotions experienced by contestants at various parts of the game, and the influence of such emotions on the risk aversion behavior. Our findings suggest that emotions have an influence on the decisions of the contestants.

scholarly journals Measure inegality in the investors risk aversion and behavioral heterogeneity: method and experimentation

2014 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 240-255
Author(s):  
Jihene Jebeniani ◽  
Mokhtar Kouki
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Random Effects ◽  
Risk Attitude ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Ordered Probit ◽  
Econometric Modeling ◽  
Individual Decision ◽  
Financial Investments ◽  
Behavioral Heterogeneity

This article studies the inequalities in measurements of the risk aversion in the context of the financial investments in Tunisia. We clarify initially the factors constitutive of the risk aversion. The studied actors are individual decision makers. The tackled questions are the risk attitude (including the risks known as extremes), its perception, its evaluation, the decision-making in risky universe. The empirical data were collected through experimental sessions carried out in Tunisia. We propose a framework of analysis for the study of the investors preferences based on an operational econometric modeling. The estimated models are the ordered probit and the ordered probit with random effects. The model with random effects has the advantage of making it possible to test the heterogeneity of the individuals and to measure the inequality in risk aversion of the investors, and this, by studying the components between and within-individual of the variance of the risk aversion.

scholarly journals Evaluation of tanker vehicle selection using a novel hybrid fuzzy MCDM technique

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 140-162
Author(s):  
Omer Faruk Gorcun ◽  
◽  
S. Senthil ◽  
Hande Küçükönder ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Assessment Process ◽  
Fuzzy Approach ◽  
Material Transportation ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Logistics Activity ◽  
Decision Alternatives ◽  
Selection Of

Petroleum product transportation considered as one of the crucial parts of dangerous material transportation is a risky logistics activity. The selection of the appropriate tanker vehicles may be a suitable solution to reduce the risks and increase the efficiency and performance of the fuel transportation companies. However, the selection of a suitable road tanker vehicle is not an easy task for decision-makers as there are many conflicting criteria and many decision alternatives. In addition, decision-makers may have to decide with insufficient information since collecting crisp values may not be possible at all times. Hence, many ambiguities affecting the evaluation results exist in an assessment process performed to select the best tanker vehicle option. This paper suggests a novel integrated fuzzy approach to solve these decision-making problems. Sensitivity analysis is conducted to test the validation of the proposed integrated fuzzy approach and its results was performed by forming 130 scenarios. The results of sensitivity analysis prove that the proposed model can be applied to solve these kinds of decision-making problems.

A Contingency Perspective for Knowledge Management Solutions in Different Decision-Making Contexts

2021 ◽  
pp. 1242-1257
Author(s):  
Kursad Ozlen ◽  
Meliha Handzic
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Knowledge Management ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Superior Performance ◽  
Partial Support ◽  
Contingency Perspective ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Contingency View ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Best Fit

A contingency perspective of knowledge management, as one of the popular ways of promoting decision making capabilities, recognizes the need for a fit between knowledge management solutions (KMS) and decision-making contexts which they support. In order to determine the best fit, a field survey was carried out to investigate the impact of two different types of KMS (technical and social) on decision makers' behavior and performance in different decision contexts (simple and complex). According to the results, there is a partial support for the contingency view. As expected, social KMS appears as the best fit for complex contexts, based on subjects' superior performance from comparable adoption of both KMS. In contrast, the results suggest that both KMS were an equally good fit for simple contexts, based on similar levels of subjects' performance, but social KMS was preferred in terms of adoption. These findings contribute to much necessary empirical evidence for research and provide useful guidance for practice. However, their limitations necessitate further study.

A Contingency Perspective for Knowledge Management Solutions in Different Decision-Making Contexts

2019 ◽  
pp. 62-77
Author(s):  
Kursad Ozlen ◽  
Meliha Handzic
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Knowledge Management ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Superior Performance ◽  
Partial Support ◽  
Contingency Perspective ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Contingency View ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Best Fit

A contingency perspective of knowledge management, as one of the popular ways of promoting decision making capabilities, recognizes the need for a fit between knowledge management solutions (KMS) and decision-making contexts which they support. In order to determine the best fit, a field survey was carried out to investigate the impact of two different types of KMS (technical and social) on decision makers' behavior and performance in different decision contexts (simple and complex). According to the results, there is a partial support for the contingency view. As expected, social KMS appears as the best fit for complex contexts, based on subjects' superior performance from comparable adoption of both KMS. In contrast, the results suggest that both KMS were an equally good fit for simple contexts, based on similar levels of subjects' performance, but social KMS was preferred in terms of adoption. These findings contribute to much necessary empirical evidence for research and provide useful guidance for practice. However, their limitations necessitate further study.

A GROUP GAME OF MULTIPLE ATTRIBUTE DECISION MAKING

2007 ◽  
Vol 24 (05) ◽  
pp. 631-645 ◽  
Author(s):  
YUH-WEN CHEN
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Multiple Attribute Decision Making ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Actual Case ◽  
Multiple Attribute ◽  
Assessment Approach ◽  
Paper Company ◽  
Portfolio Decision ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Zero Sum

Multiple Attribute Decision Making (MADM) problem is a management science technique, which is popularly used to rank the priority of alternatives with respect to their competing attributes. It is popularly used in diverse fields such as engineering management, portfolio selection, transportation planning, and performance evaluation. Weights form the core of MADM: it is obvious that different weights lead to various evaluation results and decisions. Several approaches have been developed for assessing the weights of MADM problems, e.g., the eigenvector method, ELECTRE, and TOPSIS. However, an assessment approach of weights in MADM, which meets both the need of simplicity interface for practitioners and concrete theory for scholars is not easy, and balancing these two aspects is a challenging and tough task. Since the pay-off matrix in game theory could be regarded as a simple interface for data input/output, and very few scholars had ever explored the two-person zero-sum game on MADM problems. In this paper, the weights of a MADM problem are obtained by formulating it as a two-person zero-sum game with multiple decision makers. The group equilibrium solution, i.e., consensus of weights and the resolution steps for such a group MADM game has also been originally developed and validated in this study. Finally, an actual case of selecting the appropriate portfolio decision for a paper company is illustrated.

scholarly journals Sectorial evaluation of Islamic banking contracts: a fuzzy multi-criteria-decision-making approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 370-382 ◽  
Author(s):  
Khadija El Hachami ◽  
Youssef Lamrani Alaoui ◽  
Mohamed Tkiouat
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Fuzzy Topsis ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Islamic Finance ◽  
Islamic Banking ◽  
Microfinance Institutions ◽  
Islamic Microfinance ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Intuitionistic Fuzzy Topsis

Improving the efficiency and performance of microfinance investments is essential to achieve its objectives in terms of economic and social development. One parameter that influences such a performance is the kind of the activity exercised by the micro-entrepreneurs. The aim of this paper is to provide a decision-making guide to help both microfinance institutions and investors to choose the appropriate Islamic banking contract with respect to each sector of activity. To attain this goal, an Intuitionistic Fuzzy TOPSIS evaluation is conducted in collaboration with Moroccan Islamic finance experts and practitioners. The proposed approach has the advantage to deal with the lack of quantitative historical data, as well as the uncertainty of the decision makers’ judgments. The suggested work will be helpful for the Moroccan participative banks and for the future Islamic microfinance institutions as well.

scholarly journals EVALUATING LOGISTICS VILLAGES IN TURKEY USING HYBRID IMPROVED FUZZY SWARA (IMF SWARA) AND FUZZY MABAC TECHNIQUES

2021 ◽  
Vol 27 (6) ◽  
pp. 1582-1612
Author(s):  
Sarfaraz Hashemkhani Zolfani ◽  
Ömer Faruk Görçün ◽  
Hande Küçükönder
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Evaluation System ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Optimal Decision ◽  
Ratio Analysis ◽  
Evaluation Tool ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Criteria Weights ◽  
And Performance ◽  
The Right

Positioning in the right location for organizing logistics activities is a determinative factor in the aspect of costs, effectivity, productivity, and performance of these operations carried out by logistics firms. The proper logistics village selection is a crucial, complicated, and time-consuming process for decision-makers who have to make the right and optimal decision on this issue. Decision-makers need a methodological frame with a practical algorithm that can be implemented quickly to solve these decision-making problems. Within this scope, the current paper aims to present an evaluation tool, which provides more reasonable and reliable results for decision-makers to solve the logistics village selection problem that is very complicated and has uncertain conditions based on fuzzy approaches. In this study, we propose the Improved Fuzzy Step-Wise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis (IMF SWARA), a modified and extended version of the traditional fuzzy Step-Wise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis (F-SWARA) to identify the criteria weights. Also, we suggest applying the fuzzy Multi-Attributive Border Approximation area Comparison (F-MABAC) technique to determine the preference ratings of the alternatives. This combination has many valuable contributions. For example, it proposes to use a more reliable and consistent evaluation scale based on fuzzy sets. Hence, decision-makers can perform more reliable and reasonable pairwise comparisons by considering this evaluation scale. Besides, it presents a multi-attribute evaluation system based on the identified criteria weights. From this perspective, the proposed model is implemented to evaluate eight different logistics village alternatives with respect to nine selection criteria. According to the analysis results, while A8 is the most appropriate option, C1 Gross National Product (GNP) is the most significant criterion. A comprehensive sensitivity analysis was performed to test the robustness and validation of the proposed model, and the results of the analysis approve the validity and applicability of the proposed model. As a result, the suggested integrated MCDM framework can be applied as a valuable and practical decision-making tool to develop new strategies and improve the logistics operations by decision-makers.

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