The tourism industry’s reaction to existential disruption – The role of normative, cognitive and relational expectations during recovery
COVID-19 led to the hibernation of tourism activities globally, causing substantial economic loss and putting at risk the survival of many tourism businesses. At the same time, the reduction in travel activity led to an immediate and unprecedented reduction of global carbon emissions. Many academics argue that the tourism industry should be rebuilt in a more sustainable way post-COVID-19. Based on the sociological theory on response to disruption, the present study provides initial empirical evidence that long-lasting environmental benefits are unlikely to result from the pandemic. Recovery guidelines issued by the UNWTO and six member-based industry associations from different geographical locations and representing different types of tourism businesses form the basis of the empirical analysis. Member-based industry associations represent key information brokers during the pandemic; they convey information and advice to their member businesses. The result of the content analysis indicates the dominant impact of normative expectations, which exclusively focus on re-establishing the pre-COVID-19 status. While there is little indication that cognitive expectations – which view the pandemic as an opportunity to transform business operations to be more environmentally sustainable – will be leveraged. This stands in stark contrast to the collective hope that the tourism industry will become more sustainable after the pandemic.