scholarly journals Does ENSO significantly affect rice production in Indonesia? A preliminary study using computational time-series approach

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sandy Herho ◽  
Ferio Brahmana ◽  
Katarina Herho ◽  
Dasapta Irawan
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Rice Production ◽  
Wavelet Coherence ◽  
Computational Time ◽  
Time Warping ◽  
Structural Time Series ◽  
Time Series Approach ◽  
Multivariate Enso Index ◽  
Dynamic Time ◽  
Production Areas

ENSO is a phenomenon that is suspected to influence rice production in Indonesia. In this study, we try to find a direct correlation between ENSO and rice production in this region by using various latest computational time series methods, such as Dynamic Time Warping, Wavelet Coherence, and Bayesian Structural Time Series to quantify the statistical relationship between the Multivariate ENSO Index on annual rice production in 1961 - 2019. We did not find a direct correlation between these two variables, which may be due to the local influence of ENSO on different rice production areas in Indonesia.

scholarly journals New DTW Windows Type for Forward- and Backward-Lookingness Examination. Application for Inflation Expectation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aleksandra Rutkowska ◽  
Magdalena Szyszko
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Information Content ◽  
Dynamic Time Warping ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Time Warping ◽  
Specific Question ◽  
Inflation Expectation ◽  
Standard Tool ◽  
Dynamic Time ◽  
Research Period

AbstractThis study provides an application of dynamic time warping algorithm with a new window constraint to assess consumer expectations’ information content regarding current and future inflation. Our study’s contribution is the novel application of DTW for testing expectations’ forward-lookingness. Additionally, we modify the algorithm to adjust it for a specific question on the information content of our data. The DTW overcomes constraints of the standard tool that examines forward-lookingness: DTW does not impose assumptions on time series properties. In empirical study we cover seven European counties and compare the DTW outcomes with the results of previous studies in these economies using a standard methodology. The research period covers 2001 to mid-2018. Application of DTW provides information on the degree of expectations’ forward-lookingness. The result, after standardization, are similar to the standard parameters of hybrid specification of expectations. Moreover, the rankings of most forward-looking consumers are replicated. Our results confirm the economic intuition, and they do not contradict previous studies.

scholarly journals The Connections between COVID-19 and the Energy Commodities Prices: Evidence through the Dynamic Time Warping Method

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (13) ◽  
pp. 4024
Author(s):  
Krzysztof Dmytrów ◽  
Joanna Landmesser ◽  
Beata Bieszk-Stolorz
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Palm Oil ◽  
Dynamic Time Warping ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Price Change ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
The Other ◽  
Time Warping ◽  
Heating Oil ◽  
Dynamic Time

The main objective of the study is to assess the similarity between the time series of energy commodity prices and the time series of daily COVID-19 cases. The COVID-19 pandemic affects all aspects of the global economy. Although this impact is multifaceted, we assess the connections between the number of COVID-19 cases and the energy commodities sector. We analyse these connections by using the Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) method. On this basis, we calculate the similarity measure—the DTW distance between the time series—and use it to group the energy commodities according to their price change. Our analysis also includes finding the time shifts between daily COVID-19 cases and commodity prices in subperiods according to the chronology of the COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings are that commodities such as ULSD, heating oil, crude oil, and gasoline are weakly associated with COVID-19. On the other hand, natural gas, palm oil, CO2 allowances, and ethanol are strongly associated with the development of the pandemic.

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