scholarly journals Climate change, fire return intervals and the growing risk of permanent forest loss in boreal Eurasia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arden Burrell ◽  
Qiaoqi Sun ◽  
Robert Baxter ◽  
Elena Kukavskaya ◽  
Sergey Zhila ◽  
...  

Climate change has driven an increase in the frequency and severity of fires in Eurasian boreal forests. A growing number of field studies have linked the change in fire regime to post-fire recruitment failure and permanent forest loss. In this study we used four burnt area and two forest loss datasets to calculate the landscape-scale fire return interval (FRI) and associated risk of permanent forest loss. We then used machine learning to predict how the FRI will change under a high emissions scenario (SSP3-7.0) by the end of the century. We found that there is currently 133 000 km2 at high, or extreme, risk of fire-induced forest loss, with a further 3 M km2 at risk by the end of the century. This has the potential to degrade or destroy some of the largest remaining intact forests in the world, negatively impact the health and economic wellbeing of people living in the region, as well as accelerate global climate change.

Author(s):  
George Montopoli ◽  
Hank Harlow ◽  
W. Smith, MD ◽  
A. Wheeler, MD ◽  
Andy Byerly ◽  
...  

Advancing global climate change and associated desiccation of temperate and boreal forests, exacerbated by extensive clear-cutting, may increase poisoning of aquatic ecosystems with high levels of contaminants, especially Hg. We report on contaminants identified in nestling bald eagles and wildland firefighters of the Teton Ecosystem (Grand Teton National Park (GTNP) and the Snake River Unit (SRU), Wyoming) during summers of 2006, 2007 and 2008. In bald eagles, we focus primarily on mercury (Hg), lead (Pb), and selenium (Se) because each was detected in all nestlings during all summers at moderate levels. In wildland firefighters, we report primarily on Hg due to potential contamination from Hg when fighting fires and ingesting smoke and particulates produced by those fires. We feel that studying Hg both in the eagles and humans simultaneously is a better indicator of the general health of the environment than studying them separately. Both humans and bald eagles occupy top tiers on the food web, and intricately reflect the status of the environment. Results of the bald eagle analyses showed trends indicating increases in Hg and Pb from 2006 to 2007, and decreases from 2007 to 2008. Selenium essentially remained constant from 2006 to 2007 and increased from 2007 to 2008. In wildland firefighters, Hg appears to be elevated in those firefighters who are exposed to significant levels of smoke and particulates, both in 2007 and 2008. Conjectures about firefighters, however, are not statistically significant due to small sample sizes and logistical problems. Encouraging trends in bald eagle contaminant levels from 2007 to 2008 suggest reduction (or stabilization) of contaminant concentrations in the Teton Ecosystem. We also encourage the continued elimination of Pb attributable to humans (lead ammunition, lead shot, etc.) from the Teton Ecosystem. We encourage periodic monitoring of contaminants in the Teton Ecosystem, minimally at five-year intervals (Harmata 1996), unless unexpected events mandate more immediate monitoring. In wildland firefighters, we suggest a well-designed, comprehensive research study for summer 2009, to immediately address future ecological issues that are emerging due to climate change.


2009 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 349-360 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Lehsten ◽  
K. Tansey ◽  
H. Balzter ◽  
K. Thonicke ◽  
A. Spessa ◽  
...  

Abstract. We developed a technique for studying seasonal and interannual variation in pyrogenic carbon emissions from Africa using a modelling approach that scales burned area estimates from L3JRC, a map recently generated from remote sensing of burn scars instead of active fires. Carbon fluxes were calculated by the novel fire model SPITFIRE embedded within the dynamic vegetation model framework LPJ-GUESS, using daily climate input. For the time period from 2001 to 2005 an average area of 195.5±24×104 km2 was burned annually, releasing an average of 723±70 Tg C to the atmosphere; these estimates for the biomass burned are within the range of previously published estimates. Despite the fact that the majority of wildfires are ignited by humans, strong relationships between climatic conditions (particularly precipitation), net primary productivity and overall biomass burnt emerged. Our investigation of the relationships between burnt area and carbon emissions and their potential drivers available litter and precipitation revealed uni-modal responses to annual precipitation, with a maximum around 1000 mm for burned area and emissions, or 1200 mm for litter availability. Similar response patterns identified in savannahs worldwide point to precipitation as a chief determinant for short-term variation in fire regime. A considerable variability that cannot be explained by fire-precipitation relationships alone indicates the existence of additional factors that must be taken into account.


2010 ◽  
Vol 40 (7) ◽  
pp. 1313-1324 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric S. Kasischke ◽  
David L. Verbyla ◽  
T. Scott Rupp ◽  
A. David McGuire ◽  
Karen A. Murphy ◽  
...  

A synthesis was carried out to examine Alaska’s boreal forest fire regime. During the 2000s, an average of 767 000 ha·year–1 burned, 50% higher than in any previous decade since the 1940s. Over the past 60 years, there was a decrease in the number of lightning-ignited fires, an increase in extreme lightning-ignited fire events, an increase in human-ignited fires, and a decrease in the number of extreme human-ignited fire events. The fraction of area burned from human-ignited fires fell from 26% for the 1950s and 1960s to 5% for the 1990s and 2000s, a result from the change in fire policy that gave the highest suppression priorities to fire events that occurred near human settlements. The amount of area burned during late-season fires increased over the past two decades. Deeper burning of surface organic layers in black spruce ( Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP) forests occurred during late-growing-season fires and on more well-drained sites. These trends all point to black spruce forests becoming increasingly vulnerable to the combined changes of key characteristics of Alaska’s fire regime, except on poorly drained sites, which are resistant to deep burning. The implications of these fire regime changes to the vulnerability and resilience of Alaska’s boreal forests and land and fire management are discussed.


2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adrián Jiménez-Ruano ◽  
Marcos Rodrigues Mimbrero ◽  
Juan de la Riva Fernández

Abstract. This paper explores spatial-temporal dynamics in fire regime features, such as fire frequency, burnt area, large fires, and natural- and human-caused fires, as an essential part of fire regime characterisation. Changes in fire features are analysed at different spatial–regional and provincial/NUTS3 levels, together with summer and winter temporal scales, using historical fire data from Spain for the period 1974–2013. Temporal shifts in fire features are investigated by means of change point detection procedures – Pettitt test, AMOC (At Most One Change), PELT (Pruned Exact Linear Time) and BinSeg (Binary Segmentation) – at regional level to identify changes in the time series of the features. A trend analysis was conducted using the Mann–Kendall and Sen's slope tests at both regional and NUTS3 level. Finally, we applied a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Varimax Rotation to trend outputs – mainly Sen's slope values – to summarize overall temporal behaviour, also to explore potential links in the evolution of fire features. Our results suggest that most fire features show remarkable shifts between the late 1980s and the first half of the 1990s. Mann–Kendall outputs revealed negative trends in the Mediterranean region. Results from Sen's slope suggest high spatial and intra-annual variability across the study area. Fire activity related to human sources seems to be experiencing an overall decrease in the north-west provinces, particularly pronounced during summer. Conversely, the hinterlands and the Mediterranean coast are gradually becoming less fire-affected. Finally, PCA enabled trends to be synthesized into four main components: winter fire frequency (PC1), summer burnt area (PC2), large fires (PC3) and natural fires (PC4).


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ramesh Glückler ◽  
Ulrike Herzschuh ◽  
Stefan Kruse ◽  
Andrei Andreev ◽  
Stuart Andrew Vyse ◽  
...  

Abstract. Wildfires, as a key disturbance in forest ecosystems, are shaping the world’s boreal landscapes. Changes in fire regimes are closely linked to a wide array of environmental factors, such as vegetation composition, climate change, and human activity. Arctic and boreal regions and, in particular, Siberian boreal forests are experiencing rising air and ground temperatures with the subsequent degradation of permafrost soils, leading to shifts in tree cover and species composition. Compared to the boreal zones of North America or Europe, little is known about how such environmental changes might influence long-term fire regimes in Russia. The larch-dominated eastern Siberian deciduous boreal forests differ markedly from the composition of other boreal forests, yet data about past fire regimes remain sparse. Here, we present a high-resolution macroscopic charcoal record from lacustrine sediments of Lake Khamra (SW Yakutia, Siberia) spanning the last c. 2200 years, including information about charcoal particle sizes and morphotypes. Our results reveal a phase of increased charcoal accumulation between 600–900 CE, indicative of relatively high amounts of burnt biomass and high fire frequencies. This is followed by an almost 900-year-long period of low charcoal accumulation without significant peaks, likely corresponding to cooler climate conditions. After 1750 CE fire frequencies and the relative amount of biomass burnt start to increase again, coinciding with a warming climate and increased anthropogenic land development after Russian colonisation. In the 20th century, total charcoal accumulation decreases again to very low levels, despite higher fire frequency, potentially reflecting a change in fire management strategies and/or a shift of the fire regime towards more frequent, but smaller fires. A similar pattern for different charcoal morphotypes and comparison to a pollen and non-pollen palynomorph record from the same sediment core indicate that broad-scale changes in vegetation composition were probably not a major driver of recorded fire regime changes. Instead, the fire regime of the last two millennia at Lake Khamra seems to be controlled mainly by a combination of short-term climate variability and anthropogenic fire ignition and suppression.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Angelica Feurdean ◽  
Andrei-Cosmin Diaconu ◽  
Geanina Butiseaca ◽  
Mariusz Galka ◽  
Simon M. Hutchinson ◽  
...  

<p>Boreal forests are among the ecosystems most significantly impacted by wildfires as a consequence of climate warming. A large proportion of the global boreal forest area is located in Siberia, however, its vast extent and restricted access limit datasets recording changes in wildfire activity, especially from a longer-term perspective. Such long-term records of wildfire activity are vital to understanding how fire regimes vary with changes in climate, vegetation composition and human-vegetation interaction, as well as the impacts of wildfires on boreal forests.</p><p>Here, we explore how patterns in fire regime (biomass burned, fire frequency, fire type) have changed over the Holocene. We focus on the relationship between fire regime, forest density and the fire-related traits of the main tree species, and peatland hydrology. We used charcoal-morphologies based reconstructions of fire regimes, along with pollen-based assessments of vegetation composition and testate amoebae-based hydro-climate reconstructions in Pinus-Betula dominated peatlands from central-western Siberia, Tomsk Oblast, Russia.</p><p>The occurrence of more severe fires (i.e., higher biomass burning per fire episode and abundant woody morphotypes) were recorded between 7500 and 5000 cal yr BP. Higher temperatures during that time, likely enhanced peatland dryness and fuel flammability creating conditions conducive to peat and forest fires. Drier peatland conditions also affected forest composition and density by favouring the expansion of a mix of light taiga and fire resisters (e.g., Pinus sylvestris, P. sibirica, Larix) with denser taiga and fire avoiders (Picea obovata and Abies sibirica) on the peatland. A shift to the lowest biomass burning and fire types affecting mostly litter and understorey vegetation, was registered between 4000 and 1500 cal yr BP. Temporally, it coincides with an increase in peatland surface moisture and a change in forest composition characterised by a decline in fire resisters, while fire avoiders remained abundant. An almost synchronous intensification in fires frequency and severity from ca. 2000 cal yr BP to the present at all sites, was concurrent with the rise to dominance of fire-invader species (Betula), as well as a more abundant biomass in the understory layer (shrubs, herbs, ferns, moss), while fire resisters and avoiders declined substantially. We found that Picea obovata to be highly vulnerable tree taxa to frequent, severe fires.</p><p>This long-term perspective demonstratesthat peatland hydrology is connected to, and feedbacks on peatland and forest composition and fuel dryness and ultimately fire regime. It also shows that more frequent fires of higher severity can lead to compositional or structural changes of forests, if trees cannot reach reproductive ages prior to the next burning events. Future predicted increases in temperatures are likely to enhance peatland drying, with cascading effects on forest and peat plant composition, subsequently exacerbating wildfire activity. This study thus contributes to an understanding of disturbance regimes in boreal forests and considers their potential to adapt to new climate conditions and fire regimes.</p><p> </p>


2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (10) ◽  
pp. 1697-1711 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adrián Jiménez-Ruano ◽  
Marcos Rodrigues Mimbrero ◽  
Juan de la Riva Fernández

Abstract. This paper explores spatial–temporal dynamics in fire regime features, such as fire frequency, burnt area, large fires and natural- and human-caused fires, as an essential part of fire regime characterization. Changes in fire features are analysed at different spatial – regional and provincial/NUTS3 – levels, together with summer and winter temporal scales, using historical fire data from Spain for the period 1974–2013. Temporal shifts in fire features are investigated by means of change point detection procedures – Pettitt test, AMOC (at most one change), PELT (pruned exact linear time) and BinSeg (binary segmentation) – at a regional level to identify changes in the time series of the features. A trend analysis was conducted using the Mann–Kendall and Sen's slope tests at both the regional and NUTS3 level. Finally, we applied a principal component analysis (PCA) and varimax rotation to trend outputs – mainly Sen's slope values – to summarize overall temporal behaviour and to explore potential links in the evolution of fire features. Our results suggest that most fire features show remarkable shifts between the late 1980s and the first half of the 1990s. Mann–Kendall outputs revealed negative trends in the Mediterranean region. Results from Sen's slope suggest high spatial and intra-annual variability across the study area. Fire activity related to human sources seems to be experiencing an overall decrease in the northwestern provinces, particularly pronounced during summer. Similarly, the Hinterland and the Mediterranean coast are gradually becoming less fire affected. Finally, PCA enabled trends to be synthesized into four main components: winter fire frequency (PC1), summer burnt area (PC2), large fires (PC3) and natural fires (PC4).


2012 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 250-262 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ole Bruun

Abstract In a range of international reports Vietnam is pointed out as among the 5 to 10 most climate-vulnerable countries, which are taking center stage in global climate change assistance and thus attracting huge amounts of foreign aid for research, mitigation, adaptation, disaster management, etc. However, for various reasons relating to global and domestic politics, climate change adaptation and mitigation in Vietnam are separating from general environmental management, while at the same time failing to address social inequality. From a global justice perspective this may seem irrelevant but when the resulting technocratic approaches are applied to aid programs, addressing climate change as an autonomous field, the problems on the ground become distorted. Based on field studies in central Vietnam, the paper argues that fragmented approaches risk missing the target of helping the most vulnerable population groups, while ignoring the structural and environmental issues, which in many cases constitute more immediate threats to their livelihoods.


2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 3531 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xu Luo ◽  
Hong He ◽  
Yu Liang ◽  
Jacob Fraser ◽  
Jialin Li

The ecological resilience of boreal forests is an important element of measuring forest ecosystem capacity recovered from a disturbance, and is sensitive to broad-scale factors (e.g., climate change, fire disturbance and human related impacts). Therefore, quantifying the effects of these factors is increasingly important for forest ecosystem management. In this study, we investigated the impacts of climate change, climate-induced fire regimes, and forest management schemes on forest ecological resilience using a forest landscape model in the boreal forests of the Great Xing’an Mountains, Northeastern China. First, we simulated the effects of the three studied variables on forest aboveground biomass, growing space occupied, age cohort structure, and the proportion of mid and late-seral species indicators by using the LANDIS PRO model. Second, we calculated ecological resilience based on these four selected indicators. We designed five simulated scenarios: Current fire only scenario, increased fire occurrence only scenario, climate change only scenario, climate-induced fire regime scenario, and climate-fire-management scenario. We analyzed ecological resilience over the five scenarios from 2000 to 2300. The results indicated that the initialized stand density and basal area information from the year 2000 adequately represented the real forest landscape of that year, and no significant difference was found between the simulated landscape of year 2010 and the forest inventory data of that year at the landscape scale. The simulated fire disturbance results were consistent with field inventory data in burned areas. Compared to the current fire regime scenario, forests where fire occurrence increased by 30% had an increase in ecological resilience of 12.4–43.2% at the landscape scale, whereas increasing fire occurrence by 200% would decrease the ecological resilience by 2.5–34.3% in all simulated periods. Under the low climate-induced fire regime scenario, the ecological resilience was 12.3–26.7% higher than that in the reference scenario across all simulated periods. Under the high climate-induced fire regime scenario, the ecological resilience decreased significantly by 30.3% and 53.1% in the short- and medium-terms at landscape scale, while increasing slightly by 3.8% in the long-term period compared to the reference scenario. Compared to no forest management scenario, ecological resilience was decreased by 5.8–32.4% under all harvesting and planting strategies for the low climate-induced fire regime scenario, and only the medium and high planting intensity scenarios visibly increased the ecological resilience (1.7–15.8%) under the high climate-induced fire regime scenario at the landscape scale. Results from our research provided insight into the future forest management and have implications for improving boreal forest sustainability.


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