scholarly journals PREDIKSI CURAH HUJAN BULANAN UNTUK PERINGATAN DINI LONGSOR DI BANJARNEGARA BAGIAN SELATAN DENGAN STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING DAN ENSEMBLE

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 69
Author(s):  
Agus Safril ◽  
Danang Eko Nuryanto ◽  
Ni Luh C. Chevi ◽  
Lisa Agustina ◽  
Ki Agus Ardi Z ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Downscaling

Pemanfaatan CFSRv2 untuk Statistical Downscaling menggunakan Principal Component Regression dan Partial Least Square

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Khairunnisa Khairunnisa ◽  
Rizka Pitri ◽  
Victor P Butar-Butar ◽  
Agus M Soleh
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Downscaling ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Principal Component Regression ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Meteorological Station ◽  
Grid Size ◽  
Partial Least Square ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Output Data

This research used CFSRv2 data as output data general circulation model. CFSRv2 involves some variables data with high correlation, so in this research is using principal component regression (PCR) and partial least square (PLS) to solve the multicollinearity occurring in CFSRv2 data. This research aims to determine the best model between PCR and PLS to estimate rainfall at Bandung geophysical station, Bogor climatology station, Citeko meteorological station, and Jatiwangi meteorological station by comparing RMSEP value and correlation value. Size used was 3×3, 4×4, 5×5, 6×6, 7×7, 8×8, 9×9, and 11×11 that was located between (-40) N - (-90) S and 1050 E -1100 E with a grid size of 0.5×0.5 The PLS model was the best model used in stastistical downscaling in this research than PCR model because of the PLS model obtained the lower RMSEP value and the higher correlation value. The best domain and RMSEP value for Bandung geophysical station, Bogor climatology station, Citeko meteorological station, and Jatiwangi meteorological station is 9 × 9 with 100.06, 6 × 6 with 194.3, 8 × 8 with 117.6, and 6 × 6 with 108.2, respectively.

scholarly journals Temperature Projections over the Indus River Basin of Pakistan Using Statistical Downscaling

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 195
Author(s):  
Muhammad Saleem Pomee ◽  
Elke Hertig
Keyword(s):  
21St Century ◽  
Statistical Downscaling ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Indus Basin ◽  
Indus River ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
Maximum Heating

We assessed maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures over Pakistan’s Indus basin during the 21st century using statistical downscaling. A particular focus was given to spatiotemporal heterogeneity, reference and General Circulation Model (GCM) uncertainties, and statistical skills of regression models using an observational profile that could significantly be improved by recent high-altitude observatories. First, we characterized the basin into homogeneous climate regions using K-means clustering. Predictors from ERA-Interim reanalysis were then used to model observed temperatures skillfully and quantify reference and GCM uncertainties. Thermodynamical (dynamical) variables mainly governed reference (GCM) uncertainties. The GCM predictors under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios were used as “new” predictors in statistical models to project ensemble temperature changes. Our analysis projected non-uniform warming but could not validate elevation-dependent warming (EDW) at the basin scale. We obtained more significant warming during the westerly-dominated seasons, with maximum heating during the winter season through Tmin changes. The most striking feature is a low-warming monsoon (with the possibility of no change to slight cooling) over the Upper Indus Basin (UIB). Therefore, the likelihood of continuing the anomalous UIB behavior during the primary melt season may not entirely be ruled out at the end of the 21st century under RCP8.5.

Urban flood hazard analysis in present and future climate after statistical downscaling: a case study in Ha Tinh city, Vietnam

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 257-274
Author(s):  
T. T. A. Le ◽  
N. T. Lan-Anh ◽  
V. Daskali ◽  
B. Verbist ◽  
K. C. Vu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Downscaling ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Urban Flood

scholarly journals Configuration and intercomparison of deep learning neural models for statistical downscaling

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 2109-2124 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jorge Baño-Medina ◽  
Rodrigo Manzanas ◽  
José Manuel Gutiérrez
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Statistical Downscaling ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
Spatial Features ◽  
Learning Techniques

Abstract. Deep learning techniques (in particular convolutional neural networks, CNNs) have recently emerged as a promising approach for statistical downscaling due to their ability to learn spatial features from huge spatiotemporal datasets. However, existing studies are based on complex models, applied to particular case studies and using simple validation frameworks, which makes a proper assessment of the (possible) added value offered by these techniques difficult. As a result, these models are usually seen as black boxes, generating distrust among the climate community, particularly in climate change applications. In this paper we undertake a comprehensive assessment of deep learning techniques for continental-scale statistical downscaling, building on the VALUE validation framework. In particular, different CNN models of increasing complexity are applied to downscale temperature and precipitation over Europe, comparing them with a few standard benchmark methods from VALUE (linear and generalized linear models) which have been traditionally used for this purpose. Besides analyzing the adequacy of different components and topologies, we also focus on their extrapolation capability, a critical point for their potential application in climate change studies. To do this, we use a warm test period as a surrogate for possible future climate conditions. Our results show that, while the added value of CNNs is mostly limited to the reproduction of extremes for temperature, these techniques do outperform the classic ones in the case of precipitation for most aspects considered. This overall good performance, together with the fact that they can be suitably applied to large regions (e.g., continents) without worrying about the spatial features being considered as predictors, can foster the use of statistical approaches in international initiatives such as Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX).

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