scholarly journals Uncertainties and nonstationarity in streamflow projections under climate change scenarios and the ensuing adaptation strategies in Subarnarekha river basin, India

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Cumulative Distribution ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Water Balance Components ◽  
Subarnarekha River ◽  
Subarnarekha River Basin ◽  
Calibration Time

<p>The present study analyses the various uncertainties and nonstationarity in the streamflow projections of Subarnarekha river basin in Eastern India using two widely used hydrological climate models: 1) general circulation model (GCM), and 2) forcing climate change scenarios. These two climate models are used to force the ArcSWAT model. Subsequently this model is calibrated using SUFI-2 optimization technique. The downscaled and bias-corrected data from an ensemble of 10 climate projections with representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios (five each) were used in first model, whereas in second model a total of 63 (7 perturbed precipitations and 9 perturbed temperatures) combinations of hypothetical climate change scenarios were used. The results show very good correlation during monthly calibration time steps and relatively good agreement between the observed and simulated streamflows in daily calibration time steps. The uncertainties are expressed in probabilistic terms using probability density function (PDF) and cumulative distribution function (CDF) as they provide significant information for decision process in climate change adaptation in the river basin. The uncertainties associated with climate models, return periods and streamflow extremes are also analysed in the present work. The RCP 8.5 scenarios seem more appropriate than RCP 4.5 scenarios in quantifying the uncertainties under nonstationarity assumptions. The mean values of water balance components and their percentage variation for both historic and future periods reveal that the water balance components get affected significantly due to climate change in a future period. Consequently, the streamflows are likely to decline in the river basin. The present study also highlights the comprehensive approaches that are being planned to facilitate adaptation to climate change as well as those that are specific to the water resources management in the study region. The findings in this work are useful for overall well-being of people in the study area.</p>

scholarly journals Assessment of hydrological response in Subarnarekha river basin under anticipated climate change scenarios

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Hydrological Response ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Subarnarekha River ◽  
Subarnarekha River Basin

<p>Two hydrological climate modelling techniques, general circulation model (GCM) and hypothetical climate change scenarios, were used to analyse the hydrological response to the anticipated climate change scenarios in the Subarnarekha river basin in Eastern India. Both models verified individually for the same river basin and a comparative performance of the models was evaluated to relate the two models for the near (2014-2040) period climate. The hydrological response under the anticipated climate change in the Subarnarekha river basin is well assessed by GCM under the RCP 8.5 scenarios compared to the RCPs 4.5. Results indicate GCM best suited over the hypothetical climate change scenarios as GCM has demonstrated their potential in accurately reproducing the past observed climatic changes. The strong performance of the hypothetical climate change scenarios model, particularly for warming climate scenarios, suggests that it may have distinct advantages for the analysis of water balance components in the river basin. The monthly streamflows of Subarnarekha river basin was simulated using a total of 14 years (2000-2013) daily observed streamflow data in the ArcSWAT model integrated with model calibration and uncertainty analysis by means of SUFI-2 algorithm. The results indicate during the calibration the coefficient of determination (R2) and Nash-Sutcliff Efficiency (NSE) were reported as 0.98 and 0.97, respectively, while during the validation the R2 and NSE were obtained as 0.94 and 0.94, respectively, confirms the hydrological model performance was very good both in calibration and validation. The obtained climate change water impact index (ICCWI) values reveal the Subarnarekha river basin is more responsive to climate change. The reduction in precipitation along with the significant warming under the projected future climate is likely to reduce availability of water substantially in the study region. This work would be useful for the effective management of water resources for sustainable agriculture and in mitigating natural hazards such as droughts and floods in the study region.</p>

Assessing the Hydrological Effect of Climate Change on Water Balance of a River Basin in Northern Greece

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 14-33
Author(s):  
Panagiota G. Koukouli ◽  
Pantazis E. Georgiou ◽  
Dimitrios K. Karpouzos
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Northern Greece ◽  
Time Periods ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

In this work, the impacts of climate change on the water resources of the Olynthios River Basin in Northern Greece, were assessed. For this purpose, the climate change scenarios SRES and RCPs were used (SRES A1B, Α2 and RCP4.5, 8.5) - which were taken from two climate models, CGCM3.1/T63 and CanESM2, respectively - for two time periods (2031-2050 and 2081-2100) and for the baseline period (1981-2000). The downscaling was performed using the weather generator ClimGen. The monthly water balance of the Olynthios River Basin was estimated with the use of a conceptual water balance model. Results showed that the annual runoff of the river basin of Olynthios will decrease in response to climate change under all scenarios for both time periods. The results highlight the necessity for adequate adaptation strategies which could improve agricultural water management and reduce the impacts of climate change on agriculture.

scholarly journals WATER RESOURCES STATUS AND AVAILABILITY ASSESSMENT IN CURRENT AND FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS FOR BEAS RIVER BASIN OF NORTH WESTERN HIMALAYA

2016 ◽  
Vol XLI-B8 ◽  
pp. 1389-1396 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. P. Aggarwal ◽  
P. K. Thakur ◽  
V. Garg ◽  
B. R. Nikam ◽  
A. Chouksey ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Hydrological Modelling ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Water Balance Components ◽  
Vic Model

The water resources status and availability of any river basin is of primary importance for overall and sustainable development of any river basin. This study has been done in Beas river basin which is located in North Western Himalaya for assessing the status of water resources in present and future climate change scenarios. In this study hydrological modelling approach has been used for quantifying the water balance components of Beas river basin upto Pandoh. The variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model has been used in energy balance mode for Beas river basin at 1km grid scale. The VIC model has been run with snow elevation zones files to simulate the snow module of VIC. The model was run with National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) forcing data (Tmax, Tmin, Rainfall and wind speed at 0.5degree resolution) from 1 Jan. 1999 to 31 Dec 2006 for calibration purpose. The additional component of glacier melt was added into overall river runoff using semi-empirical approach utilizing air temperature and glacier type and extent data. The ground water component is computed from overall recharge of ground water by water balance approach. The overall water balance approach is validated with river discharge data provided by Bhakra Beas Management Board (BBMB) from 1994-2014. VIC routing module was used to assess pixel wise flow availability at daily, monthly and annual time scales. The mean monthly flow at Pandoh during study period varied from 19 - 1581 m<sup>3</sup>/s from VIC and 50 to 1556 m<sup>3</sup>/sec from observation data, with minimum water flow occurring in month of January and maximum flow in month of August with annual R<sup>2</sup> of 0.68. The future climate change data is taken from CORDEX database. The climate model of NOAA-GFDL-ESM2M for IPCC RCP scenario 4.5 and 8.5 were used for South Asia at 0.44 deg. grid from year 2006 to 2100. The climate forcing data for VIC model was prepared using daily maximum and minimum near surface air temperature, daily precipitation and daily surface wind speed. The GFDL model also gives validation phase scenarios from 2006 to 2015, which are used to test the overall model performance with current data. The current assessment made by hydrological water balance based approach has given reasonable good results in Beas river basin. The main limitation of this study is lack of full representation of glacier melt flow using fully energy balance model. This component will be addressed in coming time and it will be integrated with tradition hydrological and snowmelt runoff models. The other limitation of current study is dependence on NCEP or other reanalysis of climate forcing data for hydrological modelling, this leads to mismatch between actual and simulated water balance components. This problem can be addressed if more ground based and fine resolution grid based hydro meteorological data are used as input forcing data for hydrological modelling.

scholarly journals Assessing Variation in Water Balance Components in Mountainous Inland River Basin Experiencing Climate Change

Water ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (10) ◽  
pp. 472 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhenliang Yin ◽  
Qi Feng ◽  
Songbing Zou ◽  
Linshan Yang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Water Balance Components ◽  
Inland River ◽  
Inland River Basin

scholarly journals Scenario forecasting changes in the water balance components of the Olenek and Iindigirka river basins due to possible climate change

2015 ◽  
Vol 371 ◽  
pp. 13-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ye. M. Gusev ◽  
O. N. Nasonova ◽  
L. Ya. Dzhogan ◽  
E. E. Kovalev
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Climate Scenario ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Demographic Development ◽  
Water Balance Components ◽  
Heat And Mass Exchange ◽  
The Republic

Abstract. Scenario projections of the dynamics of meteorological characteristics for the basins of the Olenek and Indigirka rivers (the Republic of Sakha) in the XXI century have been obtained for four IPCC global climate change scenarios of SRES family which correspond to specified scenarios of economic, technological, political, and demographic development of human civilization. The projections have been used to calculate scenarios of possible changes in water balance components for the basins under consideration up to the year of 2063. The calculation procedure involves a physically-based model for heat and mass exchange between the land surface and the atmosphere SWAP and climate scenario generator MAGICC/SCENGEN.

scholarly journals Assessment of Wetland Restoration and Climate Change Impacts on Water Balance Components of the Heeia Coastal Wetland in Hawaii

Hydrology ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 37 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kariem A. Ghazal ◽  
Olkeba Tolessa Leta ◽  
Aly I. El-Kadi ◽  
Henrietta Dulai
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Coastal Wetland ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Water Balance Components ◽  
Daily Streamflow

Hydrological modeling is an important tool that can be used to assess water resources’ availability and sustainability that are necessary for food security and ecological health of coastal regions. In this study, we assessed the impacts of land use and climate changes on water balance components (WBCs) of the Heeia coastal wetland. We developed a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to capture the unique characteristics of the Hawaiian Islands, including its volcanic soil’s nature and high initial infiltration rates. We used the sequential uncertainty fitting algorithm to assess the sensitivity and uncertainty of WBCs under different climate change scenarios. Results of the statistical analysis of daily streamflow simulations showed that the model performance was within the generally acceptable criteria. Under future climate scenarios, rainfall change was the determinant factor most negatively impacting WBCs. Recharge and baseflow components had the highest sensitivity to the combined effects of land use and climate changes, especially during dry season. The uncertainty analysis indicated that the streamflow is projected to slightly increase by the middle of 21st century, but expected to decline by 40% during the late 21st century of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5.

scholarly journals Evaluating the Impact of Climate Change on Paddy Water Balance Using APEX-Paddy Model

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 852 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Kamruzzaman ◽  
Syewoon Hwang ◽  
Soon-Kun Choi ◽  
Jaepil Cho ◽  
Inhong Song ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Water Balance Components ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Paddy Water ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
The Impact

This research aims to assess the impact of climate change on water balance components in irrigated paddy cultivation. The APEX-Paddy model, which is the modified version of the APEX (Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender) model for paddy ecosystems, was used to evaluate the paddy water balance components considering future climate scenarios. The bias-corrected future projections of climate data from 29 GCMs (General Circulation Models) were applied to the APEX-Paddy model simulation. The study area (Jeonju station) forecasts generally show increasing patterns in rainfall, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature with a rate of up to 23%, 27%, and 45%, respectively. The hydrological simulations suggest over-proportional runoff–rainfall and under-proportional percolation and deep-percolation–rainfall relationships for the modeled climate scenarios. Climate change scenarios showed that the evapotranspiration amount was estimated to decrease compared to the baseline period (1976–2005). The evaporation was likely to increase by 0.12%, 2.21%, and 7.81% during the 2010s, 2040s, and 2070s, respectively under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)8.5, due to the increase in temperature. The change in evaporation was more pronounced in RCP8.5 than the RCP4.5 scenario. The transpiration is expected to reduce by 2.30% and 12.62% by the end of the century (the 2070s) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, due to increased CO2 concentration. The irrigation water demand is generally expected to increase over time in the future under both climate scenarios. Compared to the baseline, the most significant change is expected to increase in the 2040s by 3.21% under RCP8.5, while the lowest increase was found by 0.36% in 2010s under RCP4.5. The increment of irrigation does not show a significant difference; the rate of increase in the irrigation was found to be greater RCP8.5 than RCP4.5 except in the 2070s. The findings of this study can play a significant role as the basis for evaluating the vulnerability of rice production concerning water management against climate change.

scholarly journals Application of a technique for scenario prediction of climate change impact on the water balance components of northern river basins

2014 ◽  
Vol 62 (3) ◽  
pp. 197-208 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yeugeniy M. Gusev ◽  
Olga N. Nasonova
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
River Basin ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Water Balance Components ◽  
Northern River

Abstract The scenario forecasting technique for assessing changes of water balance components of the northern river basins due to possible climate change was developed. Three IPCC global emission scenarios corresponding to different possible scenarios for economic, technological, political and demographic development of the human civilization in the 21st century were chosen for generating climate change projections by an ensemble of 16 General Circulation Models with a high spatial resolution. The projections representing increments of monthly values of meteorological characteristics were used for creating 3-hour meteorological time series up to 2063 for the Northern Dvina River basin, which belongs to the pan-Arctic basin and locates at the north of the European part of Russia. The obtained time series were applied as forcing data to drive the land surface model SWAP to simulate possible changes in the water balance components due to different scenarios of climate change for the Northern Dvina River basin

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