scholarly journals Application of artificial neural networks for flood forecasting.

2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 205-211
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
High Precision ◽  
Black Box ◽  
Error Prediction ◽  
Simplified Models ◽  
Prediction Technique ◽  
Ann Models ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Consistent Response

In hydrology, as in a number of diverse fields, there has been an increasing use of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) as black-box simplified models. This is mainly justified by their ability to model complex non-linear patterns; in addition they can self-adjust and produce a consistent response when ‘trained’ using observed outputs. This paper utilises various types of ANNs in an attempt to assess the relative performance of existing models. Ali Efenti, a subcatchment of the river Pinios (Greece), is examined and the results support the hypothesis that ANNs can produce qualitative forecasts. A 7-hour ahead forecast in particular proves to be of fairly high precision, especially when an error prediction technique is introduced to the ANN models.

scholarly journals Applicability of Artificial Neural Networks to Predict Mechanical and Permeability Properties of Volcanic Scoria-Based Concrete

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aref M. al-Swaidani ◽  
Waed T. Khwies
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Network Architecture ◽  
Supplementary Cementitious Material ◽  
Natural Pozzolans ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Ann Models ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
And Performance ◽  
And Training

Numerous volcanic scoria (VS) cones are found in many places worldwide. Many of them have not yet been investigated, although few of which have been used as a supplementary cementitious material (SCM) for a long time. The use of natural pozzolans as cement replacement could be considered as a common practice in the construction industry due to the related economic, ecologic, and performance benefits. In the current paper, the effect of VS on the properties of concrete was investigated. Twenty-one concrete mixes with three w/b ratios (0.5, 0.6, and 0.7) and seven replacement levels of VS (0%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, and 35%) were produced. The investigated concrete properties were the compressive strength, the water permeability, and the concrete porosity. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) were used for prediction of the investigated properties. Feed-forward backpropagation neural networks have been used. The ANN models have been established by incorporation of the laboratory experimental data and by properly choosing the network architecture and training processes. This study shows that the use of ANN models provided a more accurate tool to capture the effects of five parameters (cement content, volcanic scoria content, water content, superplasticizer content, and curing time) on the investigated properties. This prediction makes it possible to design VS-based concretes for a desired strength, water impermeability, and porosity at any given age and replacement level. Some correlations between the investigated properties were derived from the analysed data. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis showed that all studied parameters have a strong effect on the investigated properties. The modification of the microstructure of VS-based cement paste has been observed, as well.

scholarly journals Basin-Scale Prediction of Sea Surface Temperature with Artificial Neural Networks

2018 ◽  
Vol 35 (7) ◽  
pp. 1441-1455 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kalpesh Patil ◽  
M. C. Deo
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Prediction Skill ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
Ann Models ◽  
Artificial Neural

AbstractThe prediction of sea surface temperature (SST) on the basis of artificial neural networks (ANNs) can be viewed as complementary to numerical SST predictions, and it has fairly sustained in the recent past. However, one of its limitations is that such ANNs are site specific and do not provide simultaneous spatial information similar to the numerical schemes. In this work we have addressed this issue by presenting basin-scale SST predictions based on the operation of a very large number of individual ANNs simultaneously. The study area belongs to the basin of the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) having coordinates of 30°N–30°S, 30°–120°E. The network training and testing are done on the basis of HadISST data of the past 140 yr. Monthly SST anomalies are predicted at 3813 nodes in the basin and over nine time steps into the future with more than 20 million ANN models. The network testing indicated that the prediction skill of ANNs is attractive up to certain lead times depending on the subbasin. The ANN models performed well over both the western Indian Ocean (WIO) and eastern Indian Ocean (EIO) regions up to 5 and 4 months lead time, respectively, as judged by the error statistics of the correlation coefficient and the normalized root-mean-square error. The prediction skill of the ANN models for the TIO region is found to be better than the physics-based coupled atmosphere–ocean models. It is also observed that the ANNs are capable of providing an advanced warning of the Indian Ocean dipole as well as abnormal basin warming.

scholarly journals Large-scale, high-resolution comparison of the core visual object recognition behavior of humans, monkeys, and state-of-the-art deep artificial neural networks

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rishi Rajalingham ◽  
Elias B. Issa ◽  
Pouya Bashivan ◽  
Kohitij Kar ◽  
Kailyn Schmidt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Neural Mechanisms ◽  
Mechanistic Models ◽  
Object Discrimination ◽  
Ann Models ◽  
Artificial Neural

ABSTRACTPrimates—including humans—can typically recognize objects in visual images at a glance even in the face of naturally occurring identity-preserving image transformations (e.g. changes in viewpoint). A primary neuroscience goal is to uncover neuron-level mechanistic models that quantitatively explain this behavior by predicting primate performance for each and every image. Here, we applied this stringent behavioral prediction test to the leading mechanistic models of primate vision (specifically, deep, convolutional, artificial neural networks; ANNs) by directly comparing their behavioral signatures against those of humans and rhesus macaque monkeys. Using high-throughput data collection systems for human and monkey psychophysics, we collected over one million behavioral trials for 2400 images over 276 binary object discrimination tasks. Consistent with previous work, we observed that state-of-the-art deep, feed-forward convolutional ANNs trained for visual categorization (termed DCNNIC models) accurately predicted primate patterns of object-level confusion. However, when we examined behavioral performance for individual images within each object discrimination task, we found that all tested DCNNIC models were significantly non-predictive of primate performance, and that this prediction failure was not accounted for by simple image attributes, nor rescued by simple model modifications. These results show that current DCNNIC models cannot account for the image-level behavioral patterns of primates, and that new ANN models are needed to more precisely capture the neural mechanisms underlying primate object vision. To this end, large-scale, high-resolution primate behavioral benchmarks—such as those obtained here—could serve as direct guides for discovering such models.SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENTRecently, specific feed-forward deep convolutional artificial neural networks (ANNs) models have dramatically advanced our quantitative understanding of the neural mechanisms underlying primate core object recognition. In this work, we tested the limits of those ANNs by systematically comparing the behavioral responses of these models with the behavioral responses of humans and monkeys, at the resolution of individual images. Using these high-resolution metrics, we found that all tested ANN models significantly diverged from primate behavior. Going forward, these high-resolution, large-scale primate behavioral benchmarks could serve as direct guides for discovering better ANN models of the primate visual system.

scholarly journals INDUSTRIAL APPLICATIONS OF ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS

2014 ◽  
pp. 8-20
Author(s):  
Kurosh Madani
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Real World ◽  
Industrial Applications ◽  
Large Field ◽  
Nonlinear Functions ◽  
The Past ◽  
Real World Applications ◽  
Ann Models ◽  
Artificial Neural

In a large number of real world dilemmas and related applications the modeling of complex behavior is the central point. Over the past decades, new approaches based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) have been proposed to solve problems related to optimization, modeling, decision making, classification, data mining or nonlinear functions (behavior) approximation. Inspired from biological nervous systems and brain structure, Artificial Neural Networks could be seen as information processing systems, which allow elaboration of many original techniques covering a large field of applications. Among their most appealing properties, one can quote their learning and generalization capabilities. The main goal of this paper is to present, through some of main ANN models and based techniques, their real application capability in real world industrial dilemmas. Several examples through industrial and real world applications have been presented and discussed.

scholarly journals Application of Artificial Neural Networks for Accurate Prediction of Thermal and Rheological Properties of Nanofluids

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Behzad Vaferi
Keyword(s):  
Heat Transfer ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Thermophysical Properties ◽  
Convective Heat Transfer Coefficient ◽  
Industrial Applications ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Ann Models ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Mean Square Errors

Nanofluids have recently been considered as one of the most popular working fluid in heat transfer and fluid mechanics. Accurate estimation of thermophysical properties of nanofluids is required for the investigation of their heat transfer performance. Thermal conductivity coefficient, convective heat transfer coefficient, and viscosity are some the most important thermophysical properties that directly influence on the application of nanofluids. The aim of the present chapter is to develop and validate artificial neural networks (ANNs) to estimate these thermophysical properties with acceptable accuracy. Some simple and easy measurable parameters including type of nanoparticle and base fluid, temperature and pressure, size and concentration of nanoparticles, etc. are used as independent variables of the ANN approaches. The predictive performance of the developed ANN approaches is validated with both experimental data and available empirical correlations. Various statistical indices including mean square errors (MSE), root mean square errors (RMSE), average absolute relative deviation percent (AARD%), and regression coefficient (R2) are used for numerical evaluation of accuracy of the developed ANN models. Results confirm that the developed ANN models can be regarded as a practical tool for studying the behavior of those industrial applications, which have nanofluids as operating fluid.

scholarly journals Prediction of Horizontal Daily Global Solar Irradiation Using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) in the Castile and León Region, Spain

Agronomy ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 96
Author(s):  
Francisco J. Diez ◽  
Luis M. Navas-Gracia ◽  
Leticia Chico-Santamarta ◽  
Adriana Correa-Guimaraes ◽  
Andrés Martínez-Rodríguez
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Predictive Modelling ◽  
Solar Irradiation ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Markov Analysis ◽  
Global Solar Irradiation ◽  
Ann Models ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Hidden Layer

This article evaluates horizontal daily global solar irradiation predictive modelling using artificial neural networks (ANNs) for its application in agricultural sciences and technologies. An eight year data series (i.e., training networks period between 2004–2010, with 2011 as the validation year) was measured at an agrometeorological station located in Castile and León, Spain, owned by the irrigation advisory system SIAR. ANN models were designed and evaluated with different neuron numbers in the input and hidden layers. The only neuron used in the outlet layer was the global solar irradiation simulated the day after. Evaluated values of the input data were the horizontal daily global irradiation of the current day [H(t)] and two days before [H(t−1), H(t−2)], the day of the year [J(t)], and the daily clearness index [Kt(t)]. Validated results showed that best adjustment models are the ANN 7 model (RMSE = 3.76 MJ/(m2·d), with two inputs ([H(t), Kt(t)]) and four neurons in the hidden layer) and the ANN 4 model (RMSE = 3.75 MJ/(m2·d), with two inputs ([H(t), J(t)]) and two neurons in the hidden layer). Thus, the studied ANN models had better results compared to classic methods (CENSOLAR typical year, weighted moving mean, linear regression, Fourier and Markov analysis) and are practically easier as they need less input variables.

scholarly journals Optimization of a Steam Reforming Plant Modeled with Artificial Neural Networks

Electronics ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 1923
Author(s):  
Eduardo G. Pardo ◽  
Jaime Blanco-Linares ◽  
David Velázquez ◽  
Francisco Serradilla
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Steam Reforming ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Memetic Algorithms ◽  
Black Box ◽  
Optimization Techniques ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
The Real ◽  
Artificial Neural

The objective of this research is to improve the hydrogen production and total profit of a real Steam Reforming plant. Given the impossibility of tuning the real factory to optimize its operation, we propose modelling the plant using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). Particularly, we combine a set of independent ANNs into a single model. Each ANN uses different sets of inputs depending on the physical processes simulated. The model is then optimized as a black-box system using metaheuristics (Genetic and Memetic Algorithms). We demonstrate that the proposed ANN model presents a high correlation between the real output and the predicted one. Additionally, the performance of the proposed optimization techniques has been validated by the engineers of the plant, who reported a significant increase in the benefit that was obtained after optimization. Furthermore, this approach has been favorably compared with the results that were provided by a general black-box solver. All methods were tested over real data that were provided by the factory.

scholarly journals Modelling Acetification with Artificial Neural Networks and Comparison with Alternative Procedures

Processes ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (7) ◽  
pp. 749 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jorge E. Jiménez-Hornero ◽  
Inés María Santos-Dueñas ◽  
Isidoro García-García
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Acetic Acid ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
First Principles ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Black Box ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Box Models ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Black Box Models

Modelling techniques allow certain processes to be characterized and optimized without the need for experimentation. One of the crucial steps in vinegar production is the biotransformation of ethanol into acetic acid by acetic bacteria. This step has been extensively studied by using two predictive models: first-principles models and black-box models. The fact that first-principles models are less accurate than black-box models under extreme bacterial growth conditions suggests that the kinetic equations used by the former, and hence their goodness of fit, can be further improved. By contrast, black-box models predict acetic acid production accurately enough under virtually any operating conditions. In this work, we trained black-box models based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) of the multilayer perceptron (MLP) type and containing a single hidden layer to model acetification. The small number of data typically available for a bioprocess makes it rather difficult to identify the most suitable type of ANN architecture in terms of indices such as the mean square error (MSE). This places ANN methodology at a disadvantage against alternative techniques and, especially, polynomial modelling.

A Hybrid ARIMA and Artificial Neural Networks Model to Forecast Air Quality in Urban Areas: Case of Tunisia

2012 ◽  
Vol 518-523 ◽  
pp. 2969-2979 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ayari Samia ◽  
Nouira Kaouther ◽  
Trabelsi Abdelwahed
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Model Combining ◽  
Ann Models ◽  
Artificial Neural

Forecasting air quality time series represents a very difficult task since air quality contains autoregressive, linear and nonlinear patterns. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models have been widely used in air quality time series forecasting. However, they fail to detect extreme events because of their presumed linear form of data. Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) models have proved to be promising nonlinear tools for air quality forecasting. A hybrid model combining ARIMA and ANN improved forecasting more than either of the models used independently. Experimental results with meteorological and Particulate Matter data indicated that the combined model can be used as an efficient forecasting and early warning system for providing air quality information towards the citizen, not only in Sfax Southern Suburbs but in other Tunisian regions that suffer from poor air quality conditions.

scholarly journals Application of artificial neural networks to predict the COVID-19 outbreak

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamid Reza Niazkar ◽  
Majid Niazkar
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Incubation Period ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Ann Models ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Relative Errors ◽  
Mean Square Errors

Abstract Background Millions of people have been infected worldwide in the COVID-19 pandemic. In this study, we aim to propose fourteen prediction models based on artificial neural networks (ANN) to predict the COVID-19 outbreak for policy makers. Methods The ANN-based models were utilized to estimate the confirmed cases of COVID-19 in China, Japan, Singapore, Iran, Italy, South Africa and United States of America. These models exploit historical records of confirmed cases, while their main difference is the number of days that they assume to have impact on the estimation process. The COVID-19 data were divided into a train part and a test part. The former was used to train the ANN models, while the latter was utilized to compare the purposes. The data analysis shows not only significant fluctuations in the daily confirmed cases but also different ranges of total confirmed cases observed in the time interval considered. Results Based on the obtained results, the ANN-based model that takes into account the previous 14 days outperforms the other ones. This comparison reveals the importance of considering the maximum incubation period in predicting the COVID-19 outbreak. Comparing the ranges of determination coefficients indicates that the estimated results for Italy are the best one. Moreover, the predicted results for Iran achieved the ranges of [0.09, 0.15] and [0.21, 0.36] for the mean absolute relative errors and normalized root mean square errors, respectively, which were the best ranges obtained for these criteria among different countries. Conclusion Based on the achieved results, the ANN-based model that takes into account the previous fourteen days for prediction is suggested to predict daily confirmed cases, particularly in countries that have experienced the first peak of the COVID-19 outbreak. This study has not only proved the applicability of ANN-based model for prediction of the COVID-19 outbreak, but also showed that considering incubation period of SARS-COV-2 in prediction models may generate more accurate estimations.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document