scholarly journals PENGARUH VOLATILITAS NILAI TUKAR TERHADAP KINERJA EKSPOR UTAMA PERTANIAN INDONESIA

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 163-186
Author(s):  
Eka Dewi Satriana ◽  
Harianto ◽  
Dominicus Savio Priyarsono
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Natural Rubber ◽  
Gravity Model ◽  
Palm Oil ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Garch Model ◽  
Trading Partner ◽  
Easy Access ◽  
Crude Palm Oil ◽  
Agricultural Exports

Abstrak Nilai tukar merupakan salah satu aspek yang memengaruhi daya saing ekspor. Pada tahun 2013 hingga tahun 2015, volatilitas nilai tukar mengalami kenaikan, khususnya pada triwulan akhir tahun 2015 yaitu sebesar 16,90%. Kondisi ekspor utama pertanian Indonesia pada tahun tersebut rata-rata mengalami penurunan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh volatilitas nilai tukar terhadap kinerja ekspor utama pertanian Indonesia ke negara mitra dagang utama dengan menggunakan gravity model. Ekspor utama pertanian yang dianalisis yaitu karet alam, kopi, udang, dan Crude Palm Oil (CPO). Model ARCH-GARCH digunakan untuk mengukur volatilitas nilai tukar. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa volatilitas nilai tukar berpengaruh negatif terhadap ekspor karet alam, kopi, dan udang Indonesia. Artinya, semakin fluktuatif nilai tukar rupiah maka akan menurunkan ekspor karet alam, kopi, dan udang Indonesia ke negara mitra dagang utama. Pengaruh negatif tersebut juga menunjukkan adanya penghindaran risiko yang dilakukan oleh pelaku usaha. Beberapa rekomendasi hasil kajian yang dapat dilakukan Pemerintah Indonesia adalah menjaga stabilitas nilai tukar, kemudahan akses ke lembaga keuangan, penerapan lindung nilai (hedging), kontrak jangka panjang (longterm contracts), dan menjaga pertumbuhan produksi komoditas. Kata Kunci: Volatilitas Nilai Tukar, Ekspor Utama Pertanian, Model ARCH-GARCH   Abstract The exchange rate is one aspect that affects export competitiveness. From 2013 to 2015, exchange rate volatility increased, especially in the final quarter of 2015, which was 16.90%. Indonesia's main agricultural export conditions in the year on average experienced a decline. This paper analyzes the effect of exchange rate volatility on the performance of Indonesia's main agricultural exports to major trading partner countries using the gravity model. The main agricultural exports analyzed were natural rubber, coffee, shrimp, and Crude Palm Oil (CPO). The ARCH-GARCH model is used to measure exchange rate volatility. The analysis shows that exchange rate volatility harms on Indonesia's exports of natural rubber, coffee, and shrimp. This means, the more the rupiah exchange rate fluctuates will reduce Indonesia's natural rubber, coffee and shrimp exports to the main trading partner countries. The negative influence also indicates the existence of risk aversion by business actors. Some recommendations for the Government of Indonesia based on the study findings are maintaining exchange rate stability, easy access to financial institutions, implementing hedging, long-term contracts, and maintaining commodity production growth. Keywords: Exchange Rate Volatility, Main Agricultural Exports, ARCH-GARCH Model JEL Classification: F14, F31, F41, Q17

scholarly journals Thermal Behavior ofTacca leontopetaloidesStarch-Based Biopolymer

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nurul Shuhada Mohd Makhtar ◽  
Miradatul Najwa Muhd Rodhi ◽  
Mohibah Musa ◽  
Ku Halim Ku Hamid
Keyword(s):  
High Temperature ◽  
Natural Rubber ◽  
Thermal Behavior ◽  
Thermal Performance ◽  
Palm Oil ◽  
Palm Olein ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Thermal Testing ◽  
Crude Palm Oil ◽  
Roll Mill

Starch is used whenever there is a need for natural elastic properties combined with low cost of production. However, the hydrophilic properties in structural starch will decrease the thermal performance of formulated starch polymer. Therefore, the effect of glycerol, palm olein, and crude palm oil (CPO), as plasticizers, on the thermal behavior ofTacca leontopetaloidesstarch incorporated with natural rubber in biopolymer production was investigated in this paper. Four different formulations were performed and represented by TPE1, TPE2, TPE3, and TPE4. The compositions were produced by using two-roll mill compounding. The sheets obtained were cut into small sizes prior to thermal testing. The addition of glycerol shows higher enthalpy of diffusion in which made the material easily can be degraded, leaving to an amount of 6.6% of residue. Blending of CPO with starch (TPE3) had a higher thermal resistance towards high temperature up to 310°C and the thermal behavior of TPE2 only gave a moderate performance compared with other TPEs.

scholarly journals Dynamic Relationship between RMB Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Based on VAR-DCC-GARCH Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 214 ◽  
pp. 03018
Author(s):  
Xuhang Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Garch Model ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Practical Significance ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Interest Rate Volatility

Based on the daily data of Shibor and nominal exchange rate from 2006 to 2019, this paper constructs VAR model and uses Granger causality test and impulse response model to analyze the dynamic relationship between exchange rate and interest rate. Based on the DCC-GARCH model, this paper analyzes the correlation between exchange rate volatility and interest rate volatility, and concludes that there is a weak negative correlation between exchange rate and interest rate. Both exchange rate and monetary policy will have an important impact on China’s economic environment, so it is of great practical significance to study the joint impact of exchange rate and monetary policy.

scholarly journals Cointegration Analysis of Exchange Rate Volatility and Agricultural Exports in Turkey: an Ardl Approch

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 1180-1185
Author(s):  
Turgut Orman ◽  
İlkay Dellal
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Producer Price ◽  
Agricultural Exports ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

This study aims to reveal the impact of exchange rate volatility on agricultural exports of Turkey by using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model. While quarterly time series data covering period of 2001: Q1 to 2018: Q4 were used to carry out analyses, Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (1.1) is used to acquire exchange rate volatility series. The research findings showed that agricultural export is cointegrated with exchange rate volatility, producer price index and real effective exchange rate. Furthermore, our findings indicate that increases in real effective exchange rate have a statistically significant positive influence on the export volume whereas exchange rate volatility has negative impact on it.

scholarly journals ANALISIS PENGARUH HARGA CRUDE PALM OIL (CPO) DUNIA TERHADAP NILAI TUKAR RIIL RUPIAH

2014 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 315-338
Author(s):  
Hilda Aprina
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Palm Oil ◽  
Simultaneous Equation ◽  
Equation Model ◽  
Simultaneous Equation Model ◽  
Crude Palm Oil ◽  
The Real ◽  
World Price ◽  
The World

Indonesia is a biggest producer of Crude Palm Oil (CPO) in the world. Production and export volumes continued to increase from year to year. CPO products have an important role in the Indonesian economy, one of them as the country’s largest foreign exchange earner in the plantation sector. Given that Indonesia has adopted a floating exchange rate regime since 1978, the export of commodities such as palm oil will have an important influence on the real exchange rate. Therefore, this study aimed to see how much the world price of CPO influence the development of the real exchange rate of rupiah. The analytical method used is a simultaneous equation model using time series data from 1984 to 2011. The results showed that the increase in CPO price will lead to real exchange rate rupiah appreciated. Therefore, Indonesia as a major producer of CPO should be able to control the world price of crude palm oil in order to control the stability of the real exchange rate of the rupiah. Keywords : world CPO price, simultaneous equation model, the real exchange rate of rupiah.JEL Classification: E2

scholarly journals DAYA SAING MINYAK SAWIT DAN DAMPAK RENEWABLE ENERGY DIRECTIVE (RED) UNI EROPA TERHADAP EKSPOR INDONESIA DI PASAR UNI EROPA

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 103
Author(s):  
Gisa Rachma Khairunisa ◽  
Tanti Novianti
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Gravity Model ◽  
Palm Oil ◽  
Comparative Advantage ◽  
Revealed Comparative Advantage ◽  
Crude Palm Oil ◽  
Export Product ◽  
Lost Opportunity

<p>Minyak sawit dalam bentuk <em>Crude Palm Oil</em> merupakan komoditi ekspor unggulan Indonesia.Indonesia merupakan produsen dan eksportir minyak sawit terbesar di dunia.Uni Eropa merupakan pengimpor minyak sawit Indonesia terbesar kedua setelah India, sehingga dapat mempengaruhi kondisi ekspor minyak sawit Indonesia.Pada tahun 2009 Uni Eropa mengeluarkan kebijakan<em>Renewable Energy Directive </em>yang dapat berdampak kepada ekspor minyak sawit Indonesia.Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mendekripsikan gambaran umum minyak sawit, menganalisis posisi daya saing minyak sawit Indonesia menggunakan metode <em>Revealed Comparative Advantage </em>(RCA) dan <em>Export Product Dynamics</em> (EPD) serta menganalisis dampak kebijakan <em>Renewable Energy Directive</em> terhadap terhadap kinerja ekspor minyak sawit Indonesia dengan menggunakan <em>gravity model</em>. Hasil analisis RCA menunjukkan bahwa minyak sawit Indonesia memiliki keunggulan komparatif (nilai RCA&gt;1). Analisis EPD minyak sawit Indonesia di pasar Uni Eropa berada pada posisi“<em>Rising Star”</em>, Jepang berada di posisi “<em>Retreat” </em>dan Jerman berada pada posisi“<em>Lost Opportunity”</em>. Hasil analisis <em>gravity model</em> menunjukkan GDP perkapita Indonesia, populasi negaratujuan, jarak ekonomi, dan kebijakan <em>Renewable Energy Directive </em>signifikan memengaruhi nilai ekspor minyak sawit, sedangkan nilai tukar riil Indonesia tidak berpengaruhsignifikan.</p>

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