scholarly journals MEKANISME TRANSMISI GONCANGAN HARGA MINYAK DAN HARGA PANGAN DUNIA TERHADAP PEREKONOMIAN MAKRO INDONESIA: PENDEKATAN STRUCTURAL VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE (SVAR)

2017 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdul Khaliq
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Price Shock ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

<p>This study examines the transmission channels of oil and food price shocks to selected Indonesian macroeconomic variables including Indonesia industrial production index, world interest rate, inflation, domestic interest rate, real effective exchange rate, and Jakarta Composite Index using monthly data over the period 2001M01-2013M08. An empirical analysis is carried out by utilizing structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) framework. Impulse response functions (IRFs) and forecast variance decompositions (FEVDs) are employed to track the impact of oil and food price shock to Indonesian economy. The empirical findings of IRFs suggest that oil price shock negatively affects industrial production, depreciates real effective exchange rate, increases inflation and interest rate, and negatively affects aset price. However, following food price shocks, industrial production increases, depreciates real effective exchange rate, increase stock return. Moreover, inflation and interest rate respond positively following food price shocks. The FEVDs results clearly reveals that the variation in industrial production growth, inflation, interest rate, real effective exchange rate, and aset price due to oil price shock is relatively larger than the food price shocks. This implies that oil price is most important source of disturbances in Indonesian macroeconomy. As a whole, this study recommend that world oil and food price should be considered for policy analysis and forecasting an Indonesian macroeconomy.<br />Key Words : Oil and food price shocks, SVAR, IRFs, FEVDs, Indonesia</p>

scholarly journals Macroeconomic Effects of Global Food and Oil Price Shocks to the Pakistan Economy: A Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) Analysis.

2011 ◽  
Vol 50 (4II) ◽  
pp. 491-511 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Arshad Khan ◽  
Ayaz Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

This study examines the transmission channels through which the global food and oil price shocks affects selected macroeconomic variables including inflation rate, output, money balances, interest rate and real effective exchange rate for Pakistan using monthly data over the period 1990M1-2011M7. An empirical analysis is carried out by employing structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) framework. Generalised Impulse Response Functions and Generalised Forecast Variance Decompositions are employed to track the impact of oil and food price shocks to Pakistan‘s economy. Results suggest that oil price shock affects industrial production, appreciates real effective exchange rate negatively and affect inflation and interest rate positively. Whereas, following food price shocks, industrial output increases. Similarly, interest rate and inflation rate responds positively following food price shocks. However, the variation in interest rate due to food price shock is relatively larger than that of oil price shocks. Generalised impulse response functions reveal that real effective exchange rate is most important source of disturbances following either oil price or food price shocks. Generalised forecast variance decompositions analysis also supports the findings based on generalised impulse response functions. The result clearly reveals that oil and food price shocks significantly affect output, short-term interest rate, inflation rate and real effective exchange rate. However, among all, real effective exchange rate has seen a dominant source of variations in Pakistan. This implies that supply-side and demand-side disturbances originated by external shocks are the major sources of inflation (stagflation) in Pakistan. Keywords: Oil and Food Price Shocks, SVAR, GIRFs, GFEVDs, Pakistan

scholarly journals Effects of Oil Price Shocks on the Ghanaian Economy

2016 ◽  
Vol 64 (1) ◽  
pp. 315-324
Author(s):  
Dennis Nchor ◽  
Václav Klepáč ◽  
Václav Adamec
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
The Real ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

The economy of Ghana is highly vulnerable to fluctuations in the international price of crude oil. This is due to the fact that oil as a commodity plays a central role in the economic activities of the nation. The objective of this paper is to investigate the dynamic relationship between oil price shocks and macroeconomic variables in the Ghanaian economy. This is achieved through the use of Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and Vector Error Correction (VECM) models. The variables considered in the study include: real oil price, real government expenditure, real industry value added, real imports, inflation and the real effective exchange rate. The study points out the asymmetric effects of oil price shocks; for instance, positive as well as negative oil price shocks on the macroeconomic variables used. The empirical findings of this study suggest that both linear and nonlinear oil price shocks have adverse impact on macroeconomic variables in Ghana. Positive oil price shocks are stronger than negative shocks with respect to government expenditure, inflation and the real effective exchange rate. Industry value added and imports have stronger responses to negative oil price shocks. Positive oil price shocks account for about 30% of fluctuations in government expenditure, 5% of imports, 6% of industry value added, 17% of inflation and 2% of the real effective exchange rate in the long run. Negative oil price shocks account for about 8% of fluctuations in government spending, 20% of imports, 8% of inflation and 2% of the real effective exchange rate in the long run. The data was obtained from the United States Energy Information Administration and the World Bank’s World Development Indicators.

scholarly journals Impacts of the monetary policy on the exchange rate: case study of Vietnam

2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 220-237
Author(s):  
Van Anh Pham
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Quantitative Results ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to evaluate and analyze impacts of the monetary policy (MP) – money aggregate and interest rate – on the exchange rate in Vietnam. Design/methodology/approach The study uses data over the period of 2008–2018 and applies the vector autoregression model, namely recursive restriction and sign restriction approaches. Findings The main empirical findings are as follows: a contraction of the money aggregate significantly leads to the real effective exchange rate (REER) depreciating and then appreciating; a tightening of the interest rate immediately causes the REER appreciating and then depreciating; and both the money aggregate and the interest rate strongly determine fluctuations of the REER. Originality/value The quantitative results imply that the MP affects the REER considerably.

scholarly journals Econometric Analysis of Determinants of Real Effective Exchange Rate in Nigeria (1960-2015)

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 62-80 ◽  
Author(s):  
Waheed Ibrahim
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Terms Of Trade ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

Abstract This study investigates the determinants of real effective exchange rate in Nigeria for the period between 1960 and 2015 using the vector error correction mechanism to separate long run from the short run fundamentals. The findings from the regression estimates revealed that; terms of trade, openness of the economy, net capital inflow and total government expenditure were the major long run determinants of real effective exchange rate in the country while variables such as; broad money supply (M2), nominal effective exchange rate, structural adjustment program dummy, June 12 crisis and change to civil rule dummies were revealed as the major short run determinants of exchange rate in Nigeria between 1960 and 2015. The study concludes by recommending that since the major variable of terms of trade (crude oil price) is out of the government control, the effect of shocks due to the fluctuations of crude oil price can be minimized by shifting the economy from a mono-product nation and diversify the economy to increase productive capacity. Also, the change to civil rule dummy used in the study revealed that the system has not been friendly with the country’s real effective exchange rate, thus needing to review the system and bringing out all negative activities there in to ensure Nigeria’s currency appreciation. Guided openness is also suggested to avert the danger that unguided trade liberalization may bring into the country.

Oil Export Earnings, Exchange Rate Variability, and Economic Growth in Nigeria

2014 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 11-23
Author(s):  
Folorunso Sunday Ayadi ◽  
Olubunmi Elizabeth Oluwagbemi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Exchange Rate Variability ◽  
Oil Export ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

This paper investigates oil revenue and exchange rate volatility and as well as their impacts on Nigerian economic growth which is examined from 1980 – 2010. Exchange rate volatility was captured using standard deviationof monthly nominal effective exchange rate. During this period, Nigeria recorded high levels of volatility (in oil receipt and effective exchange rate) as can be seen from the Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) and the General Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) - ARCH/GARCH results. Also, the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test indicate that some of the variables exhibit unit root, this research further makes use of vector autoregressive process (VAR) using the variance decomposition of Choleski factorisation in which forecast error variance of some systems of equations has innovations which is credited to each variable and the method of impulse response function. The authors established that exchange rate in Nigeria due to its volatility causes revenue volatility from oil and this has a daring consequence on Nigeria's economic growth (being a monoculture economy). They found that change in oil price index, change in interest rate, proportion of export to GDP and exchange rate variability bears some negative impacts on change in the rate of output growth in Nigeria. Moreover, government size and exchange rate variability created some disturbances to change in the rate of output, these changes were not as substantial as those created by change in interest rate, ratio of oil export to GDP and change in oil price index. In addition, change in output responds negatively for some time horizon to one-standard deviation shocks in change in oil price index, change in interest rate, oil export to GDP and exchange rate variability. The authors recommend economic diversification and sound macroeconomic management among others.

scholarly journals The effects of world crude oil price on the real effective exchange rate: empirical evidences from Vietnam

2019 ◽  
Vol 177 (5-6) ◽  
pp. 53-69
Author(s):  
Tu Chuc Anh ◽  
◽  
Thuy Nguyen Thu ◽  
Thuy Truong Thi ◽  
Ngo Chi Thanh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
The Real ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

scholarly journals Conditions Monetaires Et Croissance Economique En Zone Cemac

2019 ◽  
pp. 27-46
Author(s):  
Waofo Deffo Alain Leberre
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Condition Index ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Pooled Mean Group ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Estimation Of Model Parameters ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

The objective of this study is to track the monetary policy stance in CEMAC zone with GDP as target variable using a real size. The construction of reel monetary condition index use heterogeneous macropanels VAR approach with individual specification proposed par Fabio and al (2013). The inter-individual cointégration test confirm the long term relationship between GDP, real short run interest rate, real effective exchange rate and credit to economy making possible the combination of those instruments to forecast growth. But the result of intraindividual cointegration remains lukewarm compromising the possibility to combine the instruments above-mentioned in a single synthetic indicator for each country in CEMAC zone. The estimation of model parameters has been done through pooled mean group in Blackburn and Fran (2007) way. The construction of real ICM uses Canada Bank approach. One finds that real ICM is determined mainly by real effective exchange rate, then credit to economy and lastly the real short run interest rate. The construction of ICM must be included among the large range of indicators used by central bank to forecast growth in CEMAC zone.

scholarly journals A Non-Linear Analysis of the Oil Price-Exchange Rate Nexus in Nigeria

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (4(J)) ◽  
pp. 79-91
Author(s):  
Olagbaju Ifeolu O. ◽  
Akinbobola Temidayo O.
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
The Real ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
Domestic Prices ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

This paper studies the effect of oil price shocks on the Nigerian exchange rate on the basis of monthly data over the period January, 2008 to October, 2015. In order to explore the effects of oil prices on the competitiveness of the Nigerian currency, which had hitherto attracted little attention in literature, the paper adopts the real effective exchange rate measure within a five-variable VAR model, analysed using both linear and non-linear approaches. We find evidence of a non-linear impact of oil prices on real effective exchange rate. Specifically, decreases in oil price are found to have an appreciating impact on real effective exchange rate, implying a loss of competitiveness of the Naira, while increases in oil price are found to be irrelevant for movements in the real effective exchange rate. Our study also suggests a link between Naira depreciation and the real effective exchange rate appreciation through a pass-through effect on rising domestic prices.

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