scholarly journals Assessment on Credit Risk of Real Estate Based on Logistic Regression Model

Author(s):  
Hongli Li ◽  
Liwei Song
2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 5957-5961

Economic and trade activities are important in a country. All these activities are regulated by financial institutions, such as banks. The process of channeling funds to the public or known as credit is one of the tasks of the banking sector which aims to improve the people's economy. Credit granting is required for credit analysis, which is useful to determine the level of eligibility of a debtor to receive credit. The function of the credit analysis is to reduce the credit risk of prospective debtors who have failed to pay as well as to avoid financial institution losses or charges. The method used to analyze credit risk in this study is the Ant Colony Optimization algorithm in the Logistic Regression model. Past data held by each prospective debtor obtained from one financial institution in Indonesia is used as a feasibility parameter in this analysis. The results of the study showed that eight variables analyzed were five variables including the significant influence (age of debt ( 1 X ), family dependents ( 2 X ), value of the collection ( 4 X ), the number of credit limits ( 6 X ), and the term of the loan ( 8 X ) while the other three variables (the amount of savings ( 3 X ), income per month ( 5 X ), net income ( 7 X ) are not significant to the risk of default.


2021 ◽  
Vol 68 (4) ◽  
pp. 881-894
Author(s):  
Dragana Tekić ◽  
Beba Mutavdžić ◽  
Dragan Milić ◽  
Nebojša Novković ◽  
Vladislav Zekić ◽  
...  

Credit risk assessment of agricultural enterprises in the Republic of Serbia was analyzed in this research by applying discriminant analysis and logistic regressions. The aim of the research is to determine the financial indicators which financial analysts consider when analyzing a loan application that have the most influence on the decision to approve or reject a loan application. The internal determinants of credit risk of agricultural enterprises are analyzed, i.e., indicators of financial leverage, profitability, liquidity, solvency, financial stability and effectiveness. The analyzed models gave different results in significance of the observed indicators. The indicators that stood out as significant in both models are only indicators of profitability and solvency. The model of discriminant analysis has successfully classified rate 81.0%, while the logistic regression model has successfully classifies rate 89.8%. In modeling the credit risk of agricultural enterprises in the Republic of Serbia, the logistic regression model gives better results.


Author(s):  
Guiping Li

In order to effectively guarantee the effect of credit risk prediction of science and technology finance and improve the ability of risk prediction, a credit risk prediction algorithm of science and technology finance based on cloud computing is proposed. The logistic regression model is used to predict, and the financial indicators of science and technology credit are selected as the model covariates. According to the characteristics and strong correlation of many financial indicators of science and technology credit, this paper constructs the final index system of online supply chain technology credit risk evaluation based on SMEs. Then the principal component analysis method is used to select the principal component. Combined with the penalty method, the data space dimension of financial indicators is further reduced, and the unrelated principal components are obtained. On this basis, a logistic regression model is established to predict the credit risk by taking the selected main components as covariates. The experimental results show that the algorithm has a good fit to the credit risk of 16 science and technology credit enterprises, and the risk prediction ability is significantly improved, which can effectively guarantee the effect of science and technology credit risk prediction.


2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
J Matos ◽  
C Matias Dias ◽  
A Félix

Abstract Background Studies on the impact of patients with multimorbidity in the absence of work indicate that the number and type of chronic diseases may increase absenteeism and that the risk of absence from work is higher in people with two or more chronic diseases. This study analyzed the association between multimorbidity and greater frequency and duration of work absence in the portuguese population between the ages of 25 and 65 during 2015. Methods This is an epidemiological, observational, cross-sectional study with an analytical component that has its source of information from the 1st National Health Examination Survey. The study analyzed univariate, bivariate and multivariate variables under study. A multivariate logistic regression model was constructed. Results The prevalence of absenteeism was 55,1%. Education showed an association with absence of work (p = 0,0157), as well as professional activity (p = 0,0086). It wasn't possible to verify association between the presence of chronic diseases (p = 0,9358) or the presence of multimorbidity (p = 0,4309) with absence of work. The prevalence of multimorbidity was 31,8%. There was association between age (p < 0,0001), education (p < 0,001) and yield (p = 0,0009) and multimorbidity. There is no increase in the number of days of absence from work due to the increase in the number of chronic diseases. In the optimized logistic regression model the only variables that demonstrated association with the variable labor absence were age (p = 0,0391) and education (0,0089). Conclusions The scientific evidence generated will contribute to the current discussion on the need for the health and social security system to develop policies to patients with multimorbidity. Key messages The prevalence of absenteeism and multimorbidity in Portugal was respectively 55,1% and 31,8%. In the optimized model age and education demonstrated association with the variable labor absence.


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