Terrorism: Low probability, high consequence

1999 ◽  
Vol 55 (6) ◽  
pp. 14-16
Author(s):  
Diego Llumá
Keyword(s):  
Low Probability

Spatial suppression due to statistical regularities is driven by distractor suppression not by target activation

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michel Failing ◽  
Benchi Wang ◽  
Jan Theeuwes
Keyword(s):  
High Probability ◽  
Target Location ◽  
Target Selection ◽  
Visual Space ◽  
Alternative Interpretation ◽  
Distractor Location ◽  
Target Presentation ◽  
Statistical Regularities ◽  
Low Probability ◽  
Presentation Experiment

Where and what we attend to is not only determined by what we are currently looking for but also by what we have encountered in the past. Recent studies suggest that biasing the probability by which distractors appear at locations in visual space may lead to attentional suppression of high probability distractor locations which effectively reduces capture by a distractor but also impairs target selection at this location. However, in many of these studies introducing a high probability distractor location was tantamount to increasing the probability of the target appearing in any of the other locations (i.e. the low probability distractor locations). Here, we investigate an alternative interpretation of previous findings according to which attentional selection at high probability distractor locations is not suppressed. Instead, selection at low probability distractor locations is facilitated. In two visual search tasks, we found no evidence for this hypothesis: neither when there was only a bias in target presentation but no bias in distractor presentation (Experiment 1), nor when there was only a bias in distractor presentation but no bias in target presentation (Experiment 2). We conclude that recurrent presentation of a distractor in a specific location leads to attentional suppression of that location through a mechanism that is unaffected by any regularities regarding the target location.

Is 3 years adequate for tracking completely occluded coiled aneurysms?

2020 ◽  
Vol 133 (3) ◽  
pp. 758-764
Author(s):  
Eung Koo Yeon ◽  
Young Dae Cho ◽  
Dong Hyun Yoo ◽  
Su Hwan Lee ◽  
Hyun-Seung Kang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
De Novo ◽  
Careful Monitoring ◽  
Surveillance Period ◽  
Radiological Data ◽  
De Novo Aneurysm ◽  
Low Probability ◽  
Almost All ◽  
Annual Risk

OBJECTIVEThe authors conducted a study to ascertain the long-term durability of coiled aneurysms completely occluded at 36 months’ follow-up given the potential for delayed recanalization.METHODSIn this retrospective review, the authors examined 299 patients with 339 aneurysms, all shown to be completely occluded at 36 months on follow-up images obtained between 2011 and 2013. Medical records and radiological data acquired during the extended monitoring period (mean 74.3 ± 22.5 months) were retrieved, and the authors analyzed the incidence of (including mean annual risk) and risk factors for delayed recanalization.RESULTSA total of 5 coiled aneurysms (1.5%) occluded completely at 36 months showed recanalization (0.46% per aneurysm-year) during the long-term surveillance period (1081.9 aneurysm-years), 2 surfacing within 60 months and 3 developing thereafter. Four showed minor recanalization, with only one instance of major recanalization. The latter involved the posterior communicating artery as an apparent de novo lesion, arising at the neck of a firmly coiled sac, and was unrelated to coil compaction or growth. Additional embolization was undertaken. In a multivariate analysis, a second embolization for a recurrent aneurysm (HR = 22.088, p = 0.003) independently correlated with delayed recanalization.CONCLUSIONSAlmost all coiled aneurysms (98.5%) showing complete occlusion at 36 months postembolization proved to be stable during extended observation. However, recurrent aneurysms were predisposed to delayed recanalization. Given the low probability yet seriousness of delayed recanalization and the possibility of de novo aneurysm formation, careful monitoring may be still considered in this setting but at less frequent intervals beyond 36 months.

scholarly journals Analysis of Low Probability of Detection Capability for Chaotic Standard Map-Based FH-OFDMA System

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 2198
Author(s):  
Junwoo Jung ◽  
Jaesung Lim ◽  
Sungyeol Park ◽  
Haengik Kang ◽  
Seungbok Kwon
Keyword(s):  
Detection Probability ◽  
Probability Of Detection ◽  
Lower Probability ◽  
Symbol Sequence ◽  
Ofdma System ◽  
Standard Map ◽  
Detection Probabilities ◽  
Low Probability ◽  
Transmitted Symbol ◽  
Basic Symbol

A frequency hopping orthogonal frequency division multiple access (FH-OFDMA) can provide low probability of detection (LPD) and anti-jamming capabilities to users against adversary detectors. To obtain an extreme LPD capability that cannot be provided by the basic symbol-by-symbol (SBS)-based FH pattern, we proposed two FH patterns, namely chaotic standard map (CSM) and cat map for FH-OFDMA systems. In our previous work, through analysis of complexity to regenerate the transmitted symbol sequence, at the point of adversary detectors, we found that the CSM had a lower probability of intercept than the cat map and SBS. It is possible when a detector already knows symbol and frame structures, and the detector has been synchronized to the FH-OFDMA system. Unlike the previous work, here, we analyze whether the CSM provides greater LPD capability than the cat map and SBS by detection probability using spectrum sensing technique. We analyze the detection probability of the CSM and provide detection probabilities of the cat map and SBS compared to the CSM. Based on our analysis of the detection probability and numerical results, it is evident that the CSM provides greater LPD capability than both the cat map and SBS-based FH-OFDMA systems.

Validation of a machine learned model to predict the diagnosis of myocardial infarction

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
D Doudesis ◽  
J Yang ◽  
A Tsanas ◽  
C Stables ◽  
A Shah ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Myocardial Infarction ◽  
Acute Coronary Syndrome ◽  
Predictive Value ◽  
High Probability ◽  
Cardiovascular Death ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Funding Source ◽  
Coronary Syndrome ◽  
Low Probability ◽  
One Year

Abstract Introduction The myocardial-ischemic-injury-index (MI3) is a promising machine learned algorithm that predicts the likelihood of myocardial infarction in patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome. Whether this algorithm performs well in unselected patients or predicts recurrent events is unknown. Methods In an observational analysis from a multi-centre randomised trial, we included all patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome and serial high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I measurements without ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction. Using gradient boosting, MI3 incorporates age, sex, and two troponin measurements to compute a value (0–100) reflecting an individual's likelihood of myocardial infarction, and estimates the negative predictive value (NPV) and positive predictive value (PPV). Model performance for an index diagnosis of myocardial infarction, and for subsequent myocardial infarction or cardiovascular death at one year was determined using previously defined low- and high-probability thresholds (1.6 and 49.7, respectively). Results In total 20,761 of 48,282 (43%) patients (64±16 years, 46% women) were eligible of whom 3,278 (15.8%) had myocardial infarction. MI3 was well discriminated with an area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve of 0.949 (95% confidence interval 0.946–0.952) identifying 12,983 (62.5%) patients as low-probability (sensitivity 99.3% [99.0–99.6%], NPV 99.8% [99.8–99.9%]), and 2,961 (14.3%) as high-probability (specificity 95.0% [94.7–95.3%], PPV 70.4% [69–71.9%]). At one year, subsequent myocardial infarction or cardiovascular death occurred more often in high-probability compared to low-probability patients (17.6% [520/2,961] versus 1.5% [197/12,983], P<0.001). Conclusions In unselected consecutive patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome, the MI3 algorithm accurately estimates the likelihood of myocardial infarction and predicts probability of subsequent adverse cardiovascular events. Performance of MI3 at example thresholds Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: Foundation. Main funding source(s): Medical Research Council

Tiered Sampling

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (5) ◽  
pp. 1-52
Author(s):  
Lorenzo De Stefani ◽  
Erisa Terolli ◽  
Eli Upfal
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Analysis Of Algorithms ◽  
Base Layer ◽  
Single Edge ◽  
Real World Data ◽  
High Quality ◽  
Large Graphs ◽  
Massive Graphs ◽  
Variance Estimate ◽  
Low Probability

We introduce Tiered Sampling , a novel technique for estimating the count of sparse motifs in massive graphs whose edges are observed in a stream. Our technique requires only a single pass on the data and uses a memory of fixed size M , which can be magnitudes smaller than the number of edges. Our methods address the challenging task of counting sparse motifs—sub-graph patterns—that have a low probability of appearing in a sample of M edges in the graph, which is the maximum amount of data available to the algorithms in each step. To obtain an unbiased and low variance estimate of the count, we partition the available memory into tiers (layers) of reservoir samples. While the base layer is a standard reservoir sample of edges, other layers are reservoir samples of sub-structures of the desired motif. By storing more frequent sub-structures of the motif, we increase the probability of detecting an occurrence of the sparse motif we are counting, thus decreasing the variance and error of the estimate. While we focus on the designing and analysis of algorithms for counting 4-cliques, we present a method which allows generalizing Tiered Sampling to obtain high-quality estimates for the number of occurrence of any sub-graph of interest, while reducing the analysis effort due to specific properties of the pattern of interest. We present a complete analytical analysis and extensive experimental evaluation of our proposed method using both synthetic and real-world data. Our results demonstrate the advantage of our method in obtaining high-quality approximations for the number of 4 and 5-cliques for large graphs using a very limited amount of memory, significantly outperforming the single edge sample approach for counting sparse motifs in large scale graphs.

EXPRESS: Selective adaptation in sentence comprehension: Evidence from event-related brain potentials

2020 ◽  
pp. 174702182098462
Author(s):  
Masataka Yano ◽  
Shugo Suwazono ◽  
Hiroshi Arao ◽  
Daichi Yasunaga ◽  
Hiroaki Oishi
Keyword(s):  
Language Processing ◽  
Sentence Comprehension ◽  
Processing System ◽  
Selective Adaptation ◽  
Event Related Potential ◽  
Equal Probability ◽  
N400 Effect ◽  
Mixed Effect ◽  
Processing Cost ◽  
Low Probability

The present study conducted two event-related potential experiments to investigate whether readers adapt their expectations to morphosyntactically (Experiment 1) or semantically (Experiment 2) anomalous sentences when they are repeatedly exposed to them. To address this issue, we manipulated the probability of morphosyntactically/semantically grammatical and anomalous sentence occurrence through experiments. For the low probability block, anomalous sentences were presented less frequently than grammatical sentences (with a ratio of 1 to 4), while they were presented as frequently as grammatical sentences in the equal probability block. Experiment 1 revealed a smaller P600 effect for morphosyntactic violations in the equal probability block than in the low probability block. Linear mixed-effect models were used to examine how the size of the P600 effect changed as the experiment went along. The results showed that the smaller P600 effect of the equal probability block resulted from an amplitude’s decline in morphosyntactically violated sentences over the course of the experiment, suggesting an adaptation to morphosyntactic violations. In Experiment 2, semantically anomalous sentences elicited a larger N400 effect than their semantically natural counterparts regardless of probability manipulation. No evidence was found in favor of adaptation to semantic violations in that the processing cost of semantic violations did not decrease over the course of the experiment. Therefore, the present study demonstrated a dynamic aspect of language-processing system. We will discuss why the language-processing system shows a selective adaptation to morphosyntactic violations.

scholarly journals Chaos for communication

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Murilo S. Baptista
Keyword(s):  
Information Content ◽  
Lyapunov Exponents ◽  
Communication System ◽  
Linear Superposition ◽  
Chaotic Signals ◽  
Physical Medium ◽  
Periodic Signals ◽  
Low Probability ◽  
Chaotic Interference ◽  
Source Signals

AbstractThis work shows that chaotic signals with different power spectrum and different positive Lyapunov exponents are robust to linear superposition, meaning that the superposition preserves the Lyapunov exponents and the information content of the source signals, even after being transmitted over non-ideal physical medium. This work tackles with great detail how chaotic signals and their information content are affected when travelling through medium that presents the non-ideal properties of multi-path propagation, noise and chaotic interference (linear superposition), and how this impacts on the proposed communication system. Physical media with other non-ideal properties (dispersion and interference with periodic signals) are also discussed. These wonderful properties that chaotic signals have allow me to propose a novel communication system based on chaos, where information composed from and to multiple users each operating with different base frequencies and that is carried by chaotic wavesignals, can be fully preserved after transmission in the open air wireless physical medium, and it can be trivially decoded with low probability of errors.

scholarly journals Incidental Finding of Leiomyoma in Mayer-Rokitansky-Kuster-Hauser Syndrome

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
pp. 232470962110146
Author(s):  
Oyetokunbo Ibidapo-Obe ◽  
Jerome Okudo ◽  
Oladunni Filani
Keyword(s):  
Developmental Disorder ◽  
Congenital Abnormalities ◽  
Incidental Finding ◽  
Pelvic Mass ◽  
External Genitalia ◽  
Well Being ◽  
African American Female ◽  
Mrkh Syndrome ◽  
Low Probability ◽  
The Right

Mayer-Rokitansky-Kuster-Hauser (MRKH) syndrome is a sexual developmental disorder. In this disorder, there is a congenital absence of the uterus and vagina with normal external genitalia. The etiology is not well understood. Variations of this condition exist that may include congenital abnormalities and psychological problems. In this article, we discuss the case of a 47-year-old African American female who presented with acute renal failure, solitary right kidney, and a pelvic mass extending from the pelvis to the right hypochondrium determined to be a fibroid. The patient was managed by a multidisciplinary team, dialyzed, and planned for removal of the mass. While understanding the low probability of having fibroids without a uterus, fibroids should not be excluded from such patients. It is also important to consider the emotional and psychological well-being of such patients.

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