scholarly journals Stock Price Prediction Using LSTM on Indian Share Market

10.29007/qgcz ◽  
2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Achyut Ghosh ◽  
Soumik Bose ◽  
Giridhar Maji ◽  
Narayan Debnath ◽  
Soumya Sen
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Spot Price ◽  
Physical Factors ◽  
Stock Price Prediction ◽  
The Impact ◽  
A Company

Predicting stock market is one of the most difficult tasks in the field of computation. There are many factors involved in the prediction – physical factors vs. physiological, rational and irrational behavior, investor sentiment, market rumors,etc. All these aspects combine to make stock prices volatile and very difficult to predict with a high degree of accuracy. We investigate data analysis as a game changer in this domain.As per efficient market theory when all information related to a company and stock market events are instantly available to all stakeholders/market investors, then the effects of those events already embed themselves in the stock price. So, it is said that only the historical spot price carries the impact of all other market events and can be employed to predict its future movement. Hence, considering the past stock price as the final manifestation of all impacting factors we employ Machine Learning (ML) techniques on historical stock price data to infer future trend. ML techniques have the potential to unearth patterns and insights we didn’t see before, and these can be used to make unerringly accurate predictions. We propose a framework using LSTM (Long Short- Term Memory) model and companies’ net growth calculation algorithm to analyze as well as prediction of future growth of a company.

scholarly journals Stock Price Prediction Using Machine Learning

2021 ◽  
pp. 386-389
Author(s):  
Warade Kalyani Gopal ◽  
Jawale Mamta Pandurang ◽  
Tayade Pratiksha Devaram ◽  
Dr. Dinesh D. Patil
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Mathematical Functions ◽  
Stock Market Prediction ◽  
Stock Price Prediction ◽  
Future Value ◽  
A Company ◽  
Stock Values

In Stock Market Prediction, the aim is to predict for future value of the financial stocks of a company. The recent trend in stock market prediction technologies is the use of machine learning which makes predictions based on the values of current stock market by training on their previous values. Machine learning itself employs different models to make prediction easier. The paper focuses on Regression and LSTM based Machine learning to predict stock values. Factors considered are open, close, low, high and volume. In order to predict market movement, the stock prices and stock indicators in addition to the news related to these stocks. Most of the previous work in this industry focused on either classifying the released market news and demonstrating their effect on the stock price or focused on the historical price movement and predicted their future movement. In this work, we propose an automated trading system that integrates mathematical functions, machine learning, and other external factors such as news’ sentiments for the purpose of a better stock prediction accuracy and issuing profitable trades. The aim to determine the price of a certain stock for the coming end-of-day considering the first several trading hours of the day.

scholarly journals Systematic optimization of Long Short-Term Memory model for predicting NYSE Arca Airline Index (XAL) during COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah Dong ◽  
Amber Wang
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Airline Industry ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
The United States ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Stock Price Prediction ◽  
Long Short Term Memory

Predicting stock prices has been both challenging and controversial. Since it first spread through the United States, the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted the stock market in a multitude of ways. Thus, stock price prediction has become even more challenging. Recurrent neural networks (RNN) have been widely used in many fields to predict financial time series. In this study, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), a special form of RNN, is used to predict the stock market direction for the US airline industry by using NYSE Arca Airline Index (XAL). The LSTM model was optimized through changing different hyperparameters of the model architecture to find the best combination for increased accuracy and performance evaluated by several metrics, including raw RMSE (3.51) and MAPA (4.6%), and very high MAPA (95.4%) and R^2 (0.978).

scholarly journals Evolutionary Framework with Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory Network for Stock Price Prediction

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Hongying Zheng ◽  
Hongyu Wang ◽  
Jianyong Chen
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Optimal Solution ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Stock Price Prediction ◽  
Memory Network ◽  
Long Short Term Memory

As an important part of the social economy, stock market plays an important role in economic development, and accurate prediction of stock price is important as it can lower the risk of investment decision-making. However, the task of predicting future stock price is very difficult. This difficulty arises from stocks with nonstationary behavior and without any explicit form. In this paper, we propose a novel bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory Network (BiLSTM) framework called evolutionary BiLSTM (EBiLSTM) for the prediction of stock price. In the framework, three independent BiLSTMs correspond to different objective functions and act as mutation individuals, then their respective losses for evolution are calculated, and finally, the optimal objective function is identified by the minimum of loss. Since BiLSTM is effective in the prediction of time series and the evolutionary framework can get an optimal solution for multiple objectives, their combination well adapts to the nonstationary behavior of stock prices. Experiments on several stock market indexes demonstrate that EBiLSTM can achieve better prediction performance than others without the evolutionary operator.

scholarly journals Building stock market resilience through digital transformation: using Google trends to analyze the impact of COVID-19 pandemic

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ding Ding ◽  
Chong Guan ◽  
Calvin M. L. Chan ◽  
Wenting Liu
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Digital Transformation ◽  
Google Trends ◽  
Building Stock ◽  
Market Sentiment ◽  
Price Performance ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Impact

Abstract As the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic rages globally, its impact has been felt in the stock markets around the world. Amidst the gloomy economic outlook, certain sectors seem to have survived better than others. This paper aims to investigate the sectors that have performed better even as market sentiment is affected by the pandemic. The daily closing stock prices of a total usable sample of 1,567 firms from 37 sectors are first analyzed using a combination of hierarchical clustering and shape-based distance (SBD) measures. Market sentiment is modeled from Google Trends on the COVID-19 pandemic. This is then analyzed against the time series of daily closing stock prices using augmented vector autoregression (VAR). The empirical results indicate that market sentiment towards the pandemic has significant effects on the stock prices of the sectors. Particularly, the stock price performance across sectors is differentiated by the level of the digital transformation of sectors, with those that are most digitally transformed, showing resilience towards negative market sentiment on the pandemic. This study contributes to the existing literature by incorporating search trends to analyze market sentiment, and by showing that digital transformation moderated the stock market resilience of firms against concern over the COVID-19 outbreak.

scholarly journals The Impact of COVID-19 on the Stock Price of Socially Responsible Enterprises: An Empirical Study in Taiwan Stock Market

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 1398
Author(s):  
Kuo-Jung Lee ◽  
Su-Lien Lu
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Recovery Phase ◽  
Socially Responsible ◽  
Cumulative Impact ◽  
Study Approach ◽  
Price Performance ◽  
The Impact

This study examines the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on the Taiwan stock market and investigates whether companies with a commitment to corporate social responsibility (CSR) were less affected. This study uses a selection of companies provided by CommonWealth magazine to classify the listed companies in Taiwan as CSR and non-CSR companies. The event study approach is applied to examine the change in the stock prices of CSR companies after the first COVID-19 outbreak in Taiwan. The empirical results indicate that the stock prices of all companies generated significantly negative abnormal returns and negative cumulative abnormal returns after the outbreak. Compared with all companies and with non-CSR companies, CSR companies were less affected by the outbreak; their stock prices were relatively resistant to the fall and they recovered faster. In addition, the cumulative impact of the COVID-19 on the stock prices of CSR companies is smaller than that of non-CSR companies on both short- and long-term bases. However, the stock price performance of non-CSR companies was not weaker than that of CSR companies during times when the impact of the pandemic was lower or during the price recovery phase.

scholarly journals A graph-based CNN-LSTM stock price prediction algorithm with leading indicators

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jimmy Ming-Tai Wu ◽  
Zhongcui Li ◽  
Norbert Herencsar ◽  
Bay Vo ◽  
Jerry Chun-Wei Lin
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Financial Management ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Prediction Algorithm ◽  
Leading Indicators ◽  
Stock Price Prediction ◽  
Price Prediction ◽  
Wealth Management

AbstractIn today’s society, investment wealth management has become a mainstream of the contemporary era. Investment wealth management refers to the use of funds by investors to arrange funds reasonably, for example, savings, bank financial products, bonds, stocks, commodity spots, real estate, gold, art, and many others. Wealth management tools manage and assign families, individuals, enterprises, and institutions to achieve the purpose of increasing and maintaining value to accelerate asset growth. Among them, in investment and financial management, people’s favorite product of investment often stocks, because the stock market has great advantages and charm, especially compared with other investment methods. More and more scholars have developed methods of prediction from multiple angles for the stock market. According to the feature of financial time series and the task of price prediction, this article proposes a new framework structure to achieve a more accurate prediction of the stock price, which combines Convolution Neural Network (CNN) and Long–Short-Term Memory Neural Network (LSTM). This new method is aptly named stock sequence array convolutional LSTM (SACLSTM). It constructs a sequence array of historical data and its leading indicators (options and futures), and uses the array as the input image of the CNN framework, and extracts certain feature vectors through the convolutional layer and the layer of pooling, and as the input vector of LSTM, and takes ten stocks in U.S.A and Taiwan as the experimental data. Compared with previous methods, the prediction performance of the proposed algorithm in this article leads to better results when compared directly.

scholarly journals Predictability of Stock Price Fluctuations Based on Business Relationships: A Comparison of Normal and the COVID-19 Pandemic Periods in Japan

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (18) ◽  
pp. 10146
Author(s):  
Shoma Sakamoto ◽  
Shintaro Sengoku
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
Customer Relationships ◽  
Business Relationships ◽  
Monthly Basis ◽  
Limited Region ◽  
Stock Price Prediction ◽  
Available Information ◽  
The Impact

The stock prices of a company are significantly influenced by changes of its business relationships. However, the effectiveness of stock price prediction based on such inter-firm business relationships has been partially confirmed in limited region and/or timeframe cases. In particular, it has not been verified under highly volatile market conditions such as those caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. To address these issues, we analyzed the impact of supplier–customer relationships on stock prices in the case of the Japanese stock market using The Fama-French three-factor model and publicly available information of business relationships. The subjects were classified into two conditions—normal and COVID-19—and the stock price predictability associated with changes of stock prices of related companies for both short and long holding periods. As a result, the significance of stock price predictability was confirmed on a daily and monthly basis in the given region. In addition, specific factors including a volatile event caused by a customer company, a stock price downturn, and the company size of a customer particularly improved stock price predictability in the pandemic.

scholarly journals The effects of dividend policy to stock prices of listed companies in Vietnam stock market

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thị Lam Hồ ◽  
Thùy Phương Trâm Hồ
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Dividend Policy ◽  
Corporate Value ◽  
Business Managers ◽  
Dividend Payment ◽  
Share Prices ◽  
Finance Management ◽  
The Impact

Dividend policy is one of the most important policies in corporate finance management. Understanding the impact of dividend policy on the distribution of profits, corporate value and thus on the stock price is important for business managers to make policies and for investors to make investment decisions. This study is conducted to evaluate the impact of dividend policy on share prices for companies listed on Vietnam’s stock market in the period from 2010 to 2018, based on the availability of continuous dividend payment data. Using the FGLS method with panel data of 100 companies listed on the HoSE and HNX, we find evidence of the impact of dividend policy on stock prices, supporting supports the bird in the hand and the signal detection theories. The findings of this study help to suggest a few recommendations for business managers and investors.

scholarly journals Comparison of ARIMA, ANN and LSTM for Stock Price Prediction

2020 ◽  
Vol 218 ◽  
pp. 01026
Author(s):  
Qihang Ma
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Research Direction ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Stock Price Prediction

The prediction of stock prices has always been a hot topic of research. However, the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model commonly used and artificial neural networks (ANN) still have their own advantages and disadvantages. The use of long short-term memory (LSTM) networks model for prediction also shows interesting possibilities. This article compares three models specifically through the analysis of the principles of the three models and the prediction results. In the end, it is believed that the LSTM model may have the best predictive ability, but it is greatly affected by the data processing. The ANN model performs better than that of the ARIMA model. The combination of time series and external factors may be a worthy research direction.

scholarly journals Stock Price Prediction Using Machine Learning and LSTM-Based Deep Learning Models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaydip Sen ◽  
Sidra Mehtab ◽  
Abhishek Dutta
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Training Data ◽  
Stock Price Prediction ◽  
Price Prediction

Prediction of stock prices has been an important area of research for a long time. While supporters of the <i>efficient market hypothesis</i> believe that it is impossible to predict stock prices accurately, there are formal propositions demonstrating that accurate modeling and designing of appropriate variables may lead to models using which stock prices and stock price movement patterns can be very accurately predicted. Researchers have also worked on technical analysis of stocks with a goal of identifying patterns in the stock price movements using advanced data mining techniques. In this work, we propose an approach of hybrid modeling for stock price prediction building different machine learning and deep learning-based models. For the purpose of our study, we have used NIFTY 50 index values of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India, during the period December 29, 2014 till July 31, 2020. We have built eight regression models using the training data that consisted of NIFTY 50 index records from December 29, 2014 till December 28, 2018. Using these regression models, we predicted the <i>open</i> values of NIFTY 50 for the period December 31, 2018 till July 31, 2020. We, then, augment the predictive power of our forecasting framework by building four deep learning-based regression models using long-and short-term memory (LSTM) networks with a novel approach of walk-forward validation. Using the grid-searching technique, the hyperparameters of the LSTM models are optimized so that it is ensured that validation losses stabilize with the increasing number of epochs, and the convergence of the validation accuracy is achieved. We exploit the power of LSTM regression models in forecasting the future NIFTY 50 <i>open</i> values using four different models that differ in their architecture and in the structure of their input data. Extensive results are presented on various metrics for all the regression models. The results clearly indicate that the LSTM-based univariate model that uses one-week prior data as input for predicting the next week's <i>open</i> value of the NIFTY 50 time series is the most accurate model.

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