Assessing potential climate change pressures across the conterminous United States: mapping plant hardiness zones, heat zones, growing degree days, and cumulative drought severity throughout this century

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen N. Matthews ◽  
Louis R. Iverson ◽  
Matthew P. Peters ◽  
Anantha Prasad
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Growing Degree Days ◽  
Degree Days ◽  
Plant Hardiness ◽  
Potential Climate Change

scholarly journals Assessing potential climate change pressures across the conterminous United States

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen N. Matthews ◽  
Louis Iverson ◽  
Matthew Peters ◽  
Anantha Prasad
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Degree Days ◽  
Climate Assessment ◽  
Spatial Domains ◽  
Near Term ◽  
National Climate Assessment ◽  
Plant Hardiness ◽  
Potential Climate Change

The maps and tables presented here represent potential variability of projected climate change across the conterminous United States during three 30-year periods in this century and emphasizes the importance of evaluating multiple signals of change across large spatial domains. Maps of growing degree days, plant hardiness zones, heat zones, and cumulative drought severity depict the potential for markedly shifting conditions and highlight regions where changes may be multifaceted across these metrics. In addition to the maps, the potential change in these climate variables are summarized in tables according to the seven regions of the fourth National Climate Assessment to provide additional regional context. Viewing these data collectively further emphasizes the potential for novel climatic space under future projections of climate change and signals the wide disparity in these conditions based on relatively near-term human decisions of curtailing (or not) greenhouse gas emissions.

scholarly journals Heat and Drought Stress Advanced Global Wheat Harvest Timing from 1981–2014

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 971 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shilong Ren ◽  
Qiming Qin ◽  
Huazhong Ren ◽  
Juan Sui ◽  
Yao Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Drought Stress ◽  
Thermal Conditions ◽  
Significant Negative Correlation ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Growing Degree Days ◽  
Degree Days ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Harvest Timing

Studying wheat phenology can greatly enhance our understanding of how wheat growth responds to climate change, and guide us to reasonably confront its influence. However, comprehensive global-scale wheat phenology–climate analysis is still lacking. In this study, we extracted the wheat harvest date (WHD) from 1981–2014 from satellite data using threshold-, logistic-, and shape-based methods. Then, we analyzed the effects of heat and drought stress on WHD based on gridded daily temperature and monthly drought data (the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI)) over global wheat-growing areas. The results show that WHD was generally delayed from the low to mid latitudes. With respect to variation trends, we detected a significant advancement of WHD in 32.1% of the world’s wheat-growing areas since 1981, with an average changing rate of −0.25 days/yr. A significant negative correlation was identified between WHD and the prior three months’ normal-growing-degree-days across 50.4% of the study region, which implies that greater preseason effective temperature accumulation may cause WHD to occur earlier. Meanwhile, WHD was also found to be significantly and negatively correlated with the prior three months’ extreme-growing-degree-days across only 9.6% of the study region (mainly located in northern South Asia and north Central-West Asia). The effects of extreme heat stress were weaker than those of normal thermal conditions. When extreme drought (measured by PDSI/SPEI) occurred in the current month, in the month prior to WHD, and in the second month prior to WHD, it forced WHD to advance by about 9.0/8.1 days, 13.8/12.2 days, and 10.8/5.3 days compared to normal conditions, respectively. In conclusion, we highlight the effects that heat and drought stress have on advancing wheat harvest timing, which should be a research focus under future climate change.

scholarly journals Mid-Holocene climate change in Europe: a data-model comparison

2007 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 499-512 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Brewer ◽  
J. Guiot ◽  
F. Torre
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Data Model ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Model Comparison ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Growing Degree Days ◽  
Degree Days ◽  
European Continent ◽  
Holocene Climate Change ◽  
Correct Location

Abstract. We present here a comparison between the outputs of 25 General Circulation Models run for the mid-Holocene period (6 ka BP) with a set of palaeoclimate reconstructions based on over 400 fossil pollen sequences distributed across the European continent. Three climate parameters were available (moisture availability, temperature of the coldest month and growing degree days), which were grouped together using cluster analysis to provide regions of homogenous climate change. Each model was then investigated to see if it reproduced 1) similar patterns of change and 2) the correct location of these regions. A fuzzy logic distance was used to compare the output of the model with the data, which allowed uncertainties from both the model and data to be taken into account. The models were compared by the magnitude and direction of climate change within the region as well as the spatial pattern of these changes. The majority of the models are grouped together, suggesting that they are becoming more consistent. A test against a set of zero anomalies (no climate change) shows that, although the models are unable to reproduce the exact patterns of change, they all produce the correct signs of change observed for the mid-Holocene.

Spatial Analysis of Climate-Viticulture Indices for the Eastern United States

2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 23-37 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rosalyn Francine MacCracken ◽  
Paul R. Houser
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Spatial Analysis ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Growing Degree Days ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Degree Days ◽  
The Us ◽  
Resolution Dataset ◽  
Effective Degree

This study characterizes the climate structure in the Eastern United States for suitability of winegrape growth. For this study, the Eastern US is defined as the 44 contiguous Eastern most states. This excludes the premium wine growing states of California, Washington, Oregon and Idaho. For this characterization, a comparative study is performed on the four commonly used climate-viticulture indices (i.e., Average Growing Season Temperature, Growing Degree Days, Heliothermal Index and Biologically Effective Degree Days), and a new climate-viticulture index, the Modified-GSTavg (Mod-GSTavg). This is accomplished using the 1971 – 2000 PRISM 800-meter resolution dataset of climate temperature normal for the study area of 44 states and 62 American Viticultural Areas across the Eastern United States. The results revealed that all the climate indices have similar spatial patterns throughout the US with varying magnitudes and degrees of suitability.

scholarly journals Modeling the Environmental Suitability for Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti and Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) in the Contiguous United States

2017 ◽  
Vol 54 (6) ◽  
pp. 1605-1614 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tammi L Johnson ◽  
Ubydul Haque ◽  
Andrew J Monaghan ◽  
Lars Eisen ◽  
Micah B Hahn ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Sensitivity Threshold ◽  
Growing Degree Days ◽  
Degree Days ◽  
Maximum Entropy Modeling ◽  
Environmental Suitability ◽  
Suitability Maps ◽  
Number Percentage ◽  
County Scale

Abstract The mosquitoes Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (L.)(Diptera:Culicidae) and Ae. (Stegomyia) albopictus (Skuse) (Diptera:Culicidae) transmit dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses and represent a growing public health threat in parts of the United States where they are established. To complement existing mosquito presence records based on discontinuous, non-systematic surveillance efforts, we developed county-scale environmental suitability maps for both species using maximum entropy modeling to fit climatic variables to county presence records from 1960–2016 in the contiguous United States. The predictive models for Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus had an overall accuracy of 0.84 and 0.85, respectively. Cumulative growing degree days (GDDs) during the winter months, an indicator of overall warmth, was the most important predictive variable for both species and was positively associated with environmental suitability. The number (percentage) of counties classified as environmentally suitable, based on models with 90 or 99% sensitivity, ranged from 1,443 (46%) to 2,209 (71%) for Ae. aegypti and from 1,726 (55%) to 2,329 (75%) for Ae. albopictus. Increasing model sensitivity results in more counties classified as suitable, at least for summer survival, from which there are no mosquito records. We anticipate that Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus will be found more commonly in counties classified as suitable based on the lower 90% sensitivity threshold compared with the higher 99% threshold. Counties predicted suitable with 90% sensitivity should therefore be a top priority for expanded mosquito surveillance efforts while still keeping in mind that Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus may be introduced, via accidental transport of eggs or immatures, and potentially proliferate during the warmest part of the year anywhere within the geographic areas delineated by the 99% sensitivity model.

Potential impacts of climate change on corn, soybeans and barley yields in Atlantic Canada

2005 ◽  
Vol 85 (2) ◽  
pp. 345-357 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Bootsma ◽  
S. Gameda ◽  
D. W. McKenney
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Direct Effect ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Field Trials ◽  
Growing Degree Days ◽  
Degree Days ◽  
Atlantic Region ◽  
Water Deficits ◽  
Heat Units ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

In this paper, relationships between agroclimatic indices and average yields of grain corn (Zea mays L.), soybeans (Glycine max L. Merr.) and barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) in field trials conducted in eastern Canada are explored and then used to estimate potential impacts of climate change scenarios on anticipated average yields and total production of these commodities for the Atlantic region for the 2040 to 2069 period. Average yields of grain corn and soybeans were highly correlated (R2 = 0.86 and 0.74, respectively) with average available crop heat units (CHU), with yields increasing by about 0.006 t ha-1 CHU-1 for corn and 0.0013 t ha-1 CHU-1 for soybeans. The explained variance was not improved significantly when water deficit (DEFICIT) was included as an independent variable in regression. Correlations between average yields of barley and effective growing degree-days (EGDD) were low (R2 ≤ 0.26) and negative, i.e., there was a tendency for slightly lower yields at higher EGDD values. Including a second-order polynomial for DEFICIT in the regression increased the R2 to ≥ 0.58, indicating a tendency for lower barley yields in areas with high water deficits and with water surpluses. Based on a range of available heat units projected by multiple General Circulation Model (GCM) experiments, average yields achievable in field trials could increase by about 2.6 to 7.5 t ha-1 (40 to 115%) for corn, and by 0.6 to 1.5 t ha-1 (21 to 50%) for soybeans by 2040 to 2069, not including the direct effect of increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations, advances in plant breeding and crop production practices or changes in impacts of weeds, insects and diseases on yield. Anticipated reductions in barley yields are likely to be more than offset by the direct effect of increased CO2 concentrations. As a result of changes in potential yields, there will likely be significant shifts away from production of barley to high-energy and high-protein crops (corn and soybeans) that are better adapted to the warmer climate. However, barley and other small grain cereals will likely remain as important crops as they are very suited for rotation with potatoes. There is a need to evaluate the potential environmental impacts of these possible shifts in crop production, particularly with respect to soil erosion in the region. Key words: Crop heat units, growing degree-days, water deficits, crop yields, climate change, Atlantic region

scholarly journals Grapevine Phenology of cv. Touriga Franca and Touriga Nacional in the Douro Wine Region: Modelling and Climate Change Projections

Agronomy ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 210 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ricardo Costa ◽  
Helder Fraga ◽  
André Fonseca ◽  
Iñaki García de Cortázar-Atauri ◽  
Maria C. Val ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Strategic Decision ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Growing Degree Days ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Degree Days ◽  
Climate Change Projections ◽  
Wine Region

Projections of grapevine phenophases under future climate change scenarios are strategic decision support tools for viticulturists and wine producers. Several phenological models are tested for budburst, flowering, and veraison and for two main grapevine varieties (cv. Touriga Franca and Touriga Nacional) growing in the Douro Demarcated Region. Four forcing models (Growing degree-days, Richardson, Sigmoid, and Wang) and three dormancy models (Bidabe, Smoothed Utah and Chuine), with different parameterizations and combinations, are used. New datasets, combing phenology with weather station data, widespread over the Douro wine region, were used for this purpose. The eight best performing models and parameterizations were selected for each phenophase and variety, based on performance metrics. For both cultivars, results revealed moderate performances (0.4 < R2 < 0.7) for budburst, while high performances (R2 > 0.7) were found for flowering and veraison, particularly when Growing degree-days or Sigmoid models are used, respectively. Climate change projections were based on a two-member climate model ensemble from the EURO-CORDEX project under RCP4.5. Projections depicted an anticipation of phenophase timings by 6, 8 or 10–12 days until the end of the century for budburst, flowering, and veraison, respectively. The inter-model variability is of approximately 2–4 days for flowering and veraison and 4–6 days for budburst. These results establish grounds for the implementation of a decision support system for monitoring and short-term prediction of grapevine phenology, thus promoting a more efficient viticulture.

scholarly journals Climate Change, Farming, and Gardening in Alaska: Cultivating Opportunities

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (22) ◽  
pp. 12713
Author(s):  
Nancy Fresco ◽  
Alec Bennett ◽  
Peter Bieniek ◽  
Carolyn Rosner
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Summer Season ◽  
Delta Method ◽  
Growing Degree Days ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Season Length ◽  
Degree Days ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Effective Strategies

Ongoing climate change and associated food security concerns are pressing issues globally, and are of particular concern in the far north where warming is accelerated and markets are remote. The objective of this research was to model current and projected climate conditions pertinent to gardeners and farmers in Alaska. Research commenced with information-sharing between local agriculturalists and climate modelers to determine primary questions, available data, and effective strategies. Four variables were selected: summer season length, growing degree days, temperature of the coldest winter day, and plant hardiness zone. In addition, peonies were selected as a case study. Each variable was modeled using regional projected climate data downscaled using the delta method, followed by extraction of key variables (e.g., mean coldest winter day for a given decade). An online interface was developed to allow diverse users to access, manipulate, view, download, and understand the data. Interpretive text and a summary of the case study explained all of the methods and outcomes. The results showed marked projected increases in summer season length and growing degree days coupled with seasonal shifts and warmer winter temperatures, suggesting that agriculture in Alaska is undergoing and will continue to undergo profound change. This presents opportunities and challenges for farmers and gardeners.

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