scholarly journals THE RESEARCH INTO THE PROBLEM OF STATISTICALLY INDETERMINATE TIME SERIES PREDICTION

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (48) ◽  
pp. 34-38
Author(s):  
V. M. Galai
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Time Series Prediction ◽  
Quality Requirements ◽  
Identification Methods ◽  
Prediction Task ◽  
Prediction Quality ◽  
External Prediction

In the article under consideration the appropriateness of prediction task optimizing according to related external prediction quality requirements based on the multitude of elements expanded by identification methods is proved by 15 mathematical models of time series and 4 methods of their identification.

scholarly journals Seismic Events Prediction Using Deep Temporal Convolution Networks

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yue Geng ◽  
Lingling Su ◽  
Yunhong Jia ◽  
Ce Han
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Coal Mine ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Time Series Prediction ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Seismic Events ◽  
Prediction Task

Seismic events prediction is a crucial task for preventing coal mine rock burst hazards. Currently, this task attracts increasing research enthusiasms from many mining experts. Considering the temporal characteristics of monitoring data, seismic events prediction can be abstracted as a time series prediction task. This paper contributes to address the problem of long-term historical dependence on seismic time series prediction with deep temporal convolution neural networks (CNN). We propose a dilated causal temporal convolution network (DCTCNN) and a CNN long short-term memory hybrid model (CNN-LSTM) to forecast seismic events. In particular, DCTCNN is designed with dilated CNN kernels, causal strategy, and residual connections; CNN-LSTM is established in a hybrid modeling way by utilizing advantage of CNN and LSTM. Based on these manners, both of DCTCNN and CNN-LSTM can extract long-term historical features from the monitoring seismic data. The proposed models are experimentally tested on two real-life coal mine seismic datasets. Furthermore, they are also compared with one traditional time series prediction method, two classic machine learning algorithms, and two standard deep learning networks. Results show that DCTCNN and CNN-LSTM are superior than the other five algorithms, and they successfully complete the seismic prediction task.

Neural Network Techniques for Time Series Prediction: A Review

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Faheem Mushtaq ◽  
Urooj Akram ◽  
Muhammad Aamir ◽  
Haseeb Ali ◽  
Muhammad Zulqarnain
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Time Series Prediction ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Prediction Problem ◽  
Neural Network Models ◽  
Physical Time

It is important to predict a time series because many problems that are related to prediction such as health prediction problem, climate change prediction problem and weather prediction problem include a time component. To solve the time series prediction problem various techniques have been developed over many years to enhance the accuracy of forecasting. This paper presents a review of the prediction of physical time series applications using the neural network models. Neural Networks (NN) have appeared as an effective tool for forecasting of time series.  Moreover, to resolve the problems related to time series data, there is a need of network with single layer trainable weights that is Higher Order Neural Network (HONN) which can perform nonlinearity mapping of input-output. So, the developers are focusing on HONN that has been recently considered to develop the input representation spaces broadly. The HONN model has the ability of functional mapping which determined through some time series problems and it shows the more benefits as compared to conventional Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). The goal of this research is to present the reader awareness about HONN for physical time series prediction, to highlight some benefits and challenges using HONN.

Making investment decisions in stock markets using a forecasting-Markowitz based decision-making approaches

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 647-659 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zahra Moeini Najafabadi ◽  
Mehdi Bijari ◽  
Mehdi Khashei
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Time Series Prediction ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Rate Of Return ◽  
Expected Returns ◽  
Prediction Methods ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Markowitz Model

Purpose This study aims to make investment decisions in stock markets using forecasting-Markowitz based decision-making approaches. Design/methodology/approach The authors’ approach offers the use of time series prediction methods including autoregressive, autoregressive moving average and artificial neural network, rather than calculating the expected rate of return based on distribution. Findings The results show that using time series prediction methods has a significant effect on improving investment decisions and the performance of the investments. Originality/value In this study, in contrast to previous studies, the alteration in the Markowitz model started with the investment expected rate of return. For this purpose, instead of considering the distribution of returns and determining the expected returns, time series prediction methods were used to calculate the future return of each asset. Then, the results of different time series methods replaced the expected returns in the Markowitz model. Finally, the overall performance of the method, as well as the performance of each of the prediction methods used, was examined in relation to nine stock market indices.

scholarly journals A Time Series Sustainability Assessment of a Partial Energy Portfolio Transition

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 141
Author(s):  
Jacob Hale ◽  
Suzanna Long
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Electricity Generation ◽  
Sustainability Assessment ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Time Series Prediction ◽  
State Level ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ◽  
Energy Transitions ◽  
Univariate Time Series ◽  
Partial Energy

Energy portfolios are overwhelmingly dependent on fossil fuel resources that perpetuate the consequences associated with climate change. Therefore, it is imperative to transition to more renewable alternatives to limit further harm to the environment. This study presents a univariate time series prediction model that evaluates sustainability outcomes of partial energy transitions. Future electricity generation at the state-level is predicted using exponential smoothing and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). The best prediction results are then used as an input for a sustainability assessment of a proposed transition by calculating carbon, water, land, and cost footprints. Missouri, USA was selected as a model testbed due to its dependence on coal. Of the time series methods, ARIMA exhibited the best performance and was used to predict annual electricity generation over a 10-year period. The proposed transition consisted of a one-percent annual decrease of coal’s portfolio share to be replaced with an equal share of solar and wind supply. The sustainability outcomes of the transition demonstrate decreases in carbon and water footprints but increases in land and cost footprints. Decision makers can use the results presented here to better inform strategic provisioning of critical resources in the context of proposed energy transitions.

scholarly journals COVID-19 Time Series Prediction

2021 ◽  
Vol 181 ◽  
pp. 973-980
Author(s):  
Leonardo Sestrem de Oliveira ◽  
Sarah Beatriz Gruetzmacher ◽  
João Paulo Teixeira
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Prediction
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