Exploration programs in deepwater Tertiary basins (e.g., the Gulf of Mexico) typically rely on bright‐spot and amplitude variation with offset (AVO) technology to help identify oil‐ and gas‐charged sands. The reliance on these attributes, along with the high cost of exploration programs in deepwater environments, has driven the need to examine the limitations of these technologies and to build robust models for the conditions under which AVO is useful as a fluid and/or lithology indicator. We build subregional AVO background trends for both brine‐ and gas‐saturated sands from several wells from the eastern deepwater Gulf of Mexico. These trends are built from the depth dependencies of velocities and densities for both shale and sands (brine saturated). Simple models of AVO gradient and intercept are constructed as a function of depth below the mud line. Sand and shale properties show little velocity contrast, justifying the interpretation of these data in the context of linearized AVO models. In addition to the in‐situ brine response, the response to gas is also calculated. These trend models indicate that the AVO response is suppressed (although still positive) below a depth of approximately 10 000 ft below the mud line. Even optimistic porosity modeling (sand porosity >30°) does not substantially change this conclusion. An important corollary is that the absence of a strong AVO anomaly at these deeper depths cannot be used with confidence when ruling out hydrocarbon presence. This observation also highlights the need to crossplot attributes to best predict hydrocarbon presence. Velocity data collected as part of this study are also used to generate a local shear velocity estimator for sands and shale. These shear estimators are similar in form to other published estimators, but minor differences in coefficients may become important in AVO modeling.