Using Ensemble Weather Forecasts for Predicting Airport Arrival Capacity

2018 ◽  
Vol 26 (3) ◽  
pp. 123-132 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shin-Lai (Alex) Tien ◽  
Christine Taylor ◽  
Erik Vargo ◽  
Craig Wanke
Keyword(s):  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Ensemble Weather Forecasts

scholarly journals Trends in the predictive performance of raw ensemble weather forecasts

2014 ◽  
Vol 41 (24) ◽  
pp. 9197-9205 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Hemri ◽  
M. Scheuerer ◽  
F. Pappenberger ◽  
K. Bogner ◽  
T. Haiden
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Performance ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Ensemble Weather Forecasts

scholarly journals Comparative Evaluation of Three Schaake Shuffle Schemes in Postprocessing GEFS Precipitation Ensemble Forecasts

2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 575-598 ◽  
Author(s):  
Limin Wu ◽  
Yu Zhang ◽  
Thomas Adams ◽  
Haksu Lee ◽  
Yuqiong Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
Spatiotemporal Variability ◽  
Precipitation Event ◽  
Precipitation Pattern ◽  
Ensemble Forecasts ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Temporal Correlations ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Proper Size ◽  
Ensemble Weather Forecasts

Abstract Natural weather systems possess certain spatiotemporal variability and correlations. Preserving these spatiotemporal properties is a significant challenge in postprocessing ensemble weather forecasts. To address this challenge, several rank-based methods, the Schaake Shuffle and its variants, have been developed in recent years. This paper presents an extensive assessment of the Schaake Shuffle and its two variants. These schemes differ in how the reference multivariate rank structure is established. The first scheme (SS-CLM), an implementation of the original Schaake Shuffle method, relies on climatological observations to construct rank structures. The second scheme (SS-ANA) utilizes precipitation event analogs obtained from a historical archive of observations. The third scheme (SS-ENS) employs ensemble members from the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS). Each of the three schemes is applied to postprocess precipitation ensemble forecasts from the GEFS for its first three forecast days over the mid-Atlantic region of the United States. In general, the effectiveness of these schemes depends on several factors, including the season (or precipitation pattern) and the level of gridcell aggregation. It is found that 1) the SS-CLM and SS-ANA behave similarly in spatial and temporal correlations; 2) by a measure for capturing spatial variability, the SS-ENS outperforms the SS-ANA, which in turn outperforms the SS-CLM; and 3), overall, the SS-ANA performs better than the SS-CLM. The study also reveals that it is important to choose a proper size for the postprocessed ensembles in order to capture extreme precipitation events.

A comparative study of deterministic and ensemble weather forecasts for weather routing

2014 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 429-441 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lukas Skoglund ◽  
Jakob Kuttenkeuler ◽  
Anders Rosén ◽  
Erik Ovegård
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Study ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Weather Routing ◽  
Ensemble Weather Forecasts

scholarly journals A New View of Heat Wave Dynamics and Predictability over the Eastern Mediterranean

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Assaf Hochman ◽  
Sebastian Scher ◽  
Julian Quinting ◽  
Joaquim G. Pinto ◽  
Gabriele Messori
Keyword(s):  
Dynamical Systems ◽  
Heat Wave ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Stress Index ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Ensemble Weather Forecasts

Abstract. Skillful forecasts of extreme weather events have a major socio-economic relevance. Here, we compare two complementary approaches to diagnose the predictability of extreme weather: recent developments in dynamical systems theory and numerical ensemble weather forecasts. The former allows us to define atmospheric configurations in terms of their persistence and local dimension, which inform on how the atmosphere evolves to and from a given state of interest. These metrics may be used as proxies for the intrinsic predictability of the atmosphere, which depends exclusively on the atmosphere’s properties. Ensemble weather forecasts inform on the practical predictability of the atmosphere, which primarily depends on the performance of the numerical model used. We focus on heat waves affecting the Eastern Mediterranean. These are identified using the Climatic Stress Index (CSI), which was explicitly developed for the summer weather conditions in this region and differentiates between heat waves (upper decile) and cool days (lower decile). Significant differences are found between the two groups from both the dynamical systems and the numerical weather prediction perspectives. Specifically, heat waves show relatively stable flow characteristics (high intrinsic predictability), but comparatively low practical predictability (large model spread/error). For 500 hPa geopotential height fields, the intrinsic predictability of heat waves is lowest at the event’s onset and decay. We relate these results to the physical processes governing Eastern Mediterranean summer heat waves: adiabatic descent of the air parcels over the region and the geographical origin of the air parcels over land prior to the onset of a heat wave. A detailed analysis of the mid-August 2010 record-breaking heat wave provides further insights into the range of different regional atmospheric configurations conducive to heat waves. We conclude that the dynamical systems approach can be a useful complement to conventional numerical forecasts for understanding the dynamics of Eastern Mediterranean heat waves.

Combining Postprocessed Ensemble Weather Forecasts and Multiple Hydrological Models for Ensemble Streamflow Predictions

2020 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 04019060 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianke Zhang ◽  
Jie Chen ◽  
Xiangquan Li ◽  
Hua Chen ◽  
Ping Xie ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hydrological Models ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Ensemble Weather Forecasts

Downscaling 15-day Ensemble Weather Forecasts and Extension to Short-term Climate Outlooks

2009 ◽  
Vol 29 ◽  
pp. 45 ◽  
Author(s):  
Renwick ◽  
Mullan ◽  
Thompson ◽  
Porteous
Keyword(s):  
Short Term ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Ensemble Weather Forecasts

Evaluating Weather Routing Decisions Using Ensemble Weather Forecasts

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
L Skoglund ◽  
◽  
J Kuttenkeuler ◽  
A Rosen ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Weather Routing ◽  
Ensemble Weather Forecasts
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