Observed and predicted earthquake damage scenarios: the case study of L’Aquila municipality

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Del Gaudio ◽  
P. Ricci ◽  
G. M. Verderame
Keyword(s):  
Earthquake Damage ◽  
Damage Scenarios

Observed and predicted earthquake damage scenarios: the case study of Pettino (L’Aquila) after the 6th April 2009 event

2016 ◽  
Vol 14 (10) ◽  
pp. 2643-2678 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlo Del Gaudio ◽  
Paolo Ricci ◽  
Gerardo M. Verderame ◽  
Gaetano Manfredi
Keyword(s):  
Earthquake Damage ◽  
Damage Scenarios

Site effects and damage scenarios: The case study of two historic centers following the 2016 Central Italy earthquake

2020 ◽  
Vol 272 ◽  
pp. 105647 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giuseppe Brando ◽  
Alessandro Pagliaroli ◽  
Giulia Cocco ◽  
Francesco Di Buccio
Keyword(s):  
Site Effects ◽  
Central Italy ◽  
Damage Scenarios ◽  
Central Italy Earthquake

scholarly journals Ensemble-Based Exigent Analysis. Part II: Using Ensemble Regression to Estimate Conditions Antecedent to Worst-Case Forecast Damage Scenarios

2013 ◽  
Vol 28 (3) ◽  
pp. 557-569 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Gombos ◽  
Ross N. Hoffman
Keyword(s):  
Damage Function ◽  
Citrus Tree ◽  
Damage State ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Cold Temperatures ◽  
Damage Scenarios ◽  
Minimization Technique ◽  
Forecast State ◽  
Ensemble Regression

Abstract In Part I of this series on ensemble-based exigent analysis, a Lagrange multiplier minimization technique is used to estimate the exigent damage state (ExDS), the “worst case” with respect to a user-specified damage function and confidence level. Part II estimates the conditions antecedent to the ExDS using ensemble regression (ER), a linear inverse technique that employs an ensemble-estimated mapping matrix to propagate a predictor perturbation state into a predictand perturbation state. By propagating the exigent damage perturbations (ExDPs) from the heating degree days (HDD) and citrus tree case studies of Part I into their respective antecedent forecast state vectors, ER estimates the most probable antecedent perturbations expected to evolve into these ExDPs. Consistent with the physical expectations of a trough that precedes and coincides with the anomalously cold temperatures during the HDD case study, the ER-estimated antecedent 300-hPa geopotential height trough is approximately 59 and 17 m deeper than the ensemble mean at around the time of the ExDP as well as 24 h earlier, respectively. Statistics of the explained variance and from leave-one-out cross-validation runs indicate that the expected errors of these ER-estimated perturbations are smaller for the HDD case study than for the citrus tree case study.

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