scholarly journals A new approach to calculate extreme storm surges: analysing the interaction of storm surge components

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Gönnert ◽  
K. Sossidi
Keyword(s):  
Storm Surge ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Extreme Storm

scholarly journals Statistical Prediction of Extreme Storm Surges Based on a Fully Supervised Weather-Type Downscaling Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (12) ◽  
pp. 1028
Author(s):  
Wagner Costa ◽  
Déborah Idier ◽  
Jérémy Rohmer ◽  
Melisa Menendez ◽  
Paula Camus
Keyword(s):  
Storm Surge ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Weather Type ◽  
Statistical Prediction ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Maximum Absolute Error ◽  
Extreme Storm ◽  
Gauge Station ◽  
Data Driven Approach

Increasing our capacity to predict extreme storm surges is one of the key issues in terms of coastal flood risk prevention and adaptation. Dynamically forecasting storm surges is computationally expensive. Here, we focus on an alternative data-driven approach and set up a weather-type statistical downscaling for daily maximum storm surge (SS) prediction, using atmospheric hindcasts (CFSR and CFSv2) and 15 years of tidal gauge station measurements. We focus on predicting the storm surge at La Rochelle–La Pallice tidal gauge station. First, based on a sensitivity analysis to the various parameters of the weather-type approach, we find that the model configuration providing the best performance in SS prediction relies on a fully supervised classification using minimum daily sea level pressure (SLP) and maximum SLP gradient, with 1° resolution in the northeast Atlantic domain as the predictor. Second, we compare the resulting optimal model with the inverse barometer approach and other statistical models (multi-linear regression; semi-supervised and unsupervised weather-types based approaches). The optimal configuration provides more accurate predictions for extreme storm surges, but also the capacity to identify unusual atmospheric storm patterns that can lead to extreme storm surges, as the Xynthia storm for instance (a decrease in the maximum absolute error of 50%).

A NEW APPROACH TO CALCULATE EXTREME STORM SURGES

2011 ◽  
Vol 60 ◽  
pp. 91-98 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriele Gönnert ◽  
Kristina Sossidi
Keyword(s):  
Storm Surges ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Extreme Storm

scholarly journals Estimation of the non-exceedance probability of extreme storm surges in South Korea using tidal-gauge data

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (8) ◽  
pp. 2611-2631
Author(s):  
Sang-Guk Yum ◽  
Hsi-Hsien Wei ◽  
Sung-Hwan Jang
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Exceedance Probability ◽  
Probability Models ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Extreme Storm ◽  
Gauge Data

Abstract. Global warming, one of the most serious aspects of climate change, can be expected to cause rising sea levels. These have in turn been linked to unprecedentedly large typhoons that can cause flooding of low-lying land, coastal invasion, seawater flows into rivers and groundwater, rising river levels, and aberrant tides. To prevent typhoon-related loss of life and property damage, it is crucial to accurately estimate storm-surge risk. This study therefore develops a statistical model for estimating such surges' probability based on surge data pertaining to Typhoon Maemi, which struck South Korea in 2003. Specifically, estimation of non-exceedance probability models of the typhoon-related storm surge was achieved via clustered separated peaks-over-threshold simulation, while various distribution models were fitted to the empirical data for investigating the risk of storm surges reaching particular heights. To explore the non-exceedance probability of extreme storm surges caused by typhoons, a threshold algorithm with clustering methodology was applied. To enhance the accuracy of such non-exceedance probability, the surge data were separated into three different components: predicted water level, observed water level, and surge. Sea-level data from when Typhoon Maemi struck were collected from a tidal-gauge station in the city of Busan, which is vulnerable to typhoon-related disasters due to its geographical characteristics. Fréchet, gamma, log-normal, generalized Pareto, and Weibull distributions were fitted to the empirical surge data, and the researchers compared each one's performance at explaining the non-exceedance probability. This established that Weibull distribution was better than any of the other distributions for modelling Typhoon Maemi's peak total water level. Although this research was limited to one city on the Korean Peninsula and one extreme weather event, its approach could be used to reliably estimate non-exceedance probabilities in other regions where tidal-gauge data are available. In practical terms, the findings of this study and future ones adopting its methodology will provide a useful reference for designers of coastal infrastructure.

Re-assessing extreme sea level events through interplay of tides and storm surges

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen Outten ◽  
Tobias Wolf ◽  
Fabio Mangini ◽  
Linling Chen ◽  
Jan Even Nilsen
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Critical Infrastructure ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Return Level ◽  
National Standard ◽  
Moderate Intensity ◽  
Extreme Storm ◽  
Warming World

<p>Flooding events pose an ever increasing threat in a warming world. Safety standards for buildings and infrastructure are often based on past observations of local sea level, as measured by tide gauges and remote sensing systems. However, sea level at a given location is not an isolated property and is determined by a combination of factors. For extreme sea level events, there are two factors that of particular importance: the astronomical tide, and storm surges. In this work, we analysed measurements from 21 stations in the Norwegian tide gauge network, disentangling the factors contributing to the previously observed extreme events.</p><p>By separating the observed sea level into a tidal component and a storm surge component, we found that in many cases the observed extreme sea level events were caused by an extreme storm surge coinciding with only a moderate tide, or an extreme tide coinciding with only a moderate storm surge. This raises the possibility of a ‘super-flooding’ event, where an extreme storm surge may occur with an extreme tide. Even in the short records examined in this study (less than 40 years), the combination of the highest observed tide with the highest observed storm surge would greatly exceed in the 1000-year return level event at many locations. This is often used as a national standard for critical infrastructure.  </p><p>We further complement the work by analysing the storm tracks close to Norway. By relating the storm surges with the individual storms giving rise to them, we found that many storm surges during extreme sea level events were related to cyclones of only moderate intensity. Combined with the previous findings, this work suggests the need to assess extreme sea level return values for future construction and infrastructure planning as the result of a multi-variable system. This is in contrast to basing such assessments on the single variable of observed sea level as it is done today.</p>

scholarly journals A NEW METHOD OF APPROACHING EXTREME STORM EVENTS FOR DESIGN LEVEL OR RISK ANALYSIS

2012 ◽  
Vol 1 (33) ◽  
pp. 2 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriele Goennert ◽  
Birgit Gerkensmeier
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Research Work ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
New Method ◽  
Storm Events ◽  
Extreme Storm ◽  
Joint Research Project ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
Linear Interactions

The North Sea coast is seriously threatened by storm surges. Climate change and its consequences, such as a rising sea level, will have serious effects on the safety of people and economic assets in coastal areas. Within the joint research project XtremRisK (bmbf-funded) the Agency of roads bridges and Waters of the Free and Hanseatic City of Hamburg developed a new method to calculate extreme storm surge events. The purpose of the research work, to calculated physically feasible extreme events is given consideration by detailed analyses of the single storm-surge components (tide, external surge from the Atlantic and wind surge) and their non-linear interactions by combining deterministic-empirical, statistical and numerical methods. The non-linear interactions can be comprised by hydrodynamic equations such as equation of momentum, continuity equation and volume balance. The claim to develop a comprehensive and physically feasible method is satisfied by the diversity of methodical approaches for analyzing the storm surge components and their interaction processes. Therefore a 2-method concept is developed on the basis of empirical and numerical approaches. The resultant new method is a new way of calculating extreme storm surges and can be used within new design concepts to calculate design level heights or could be a part of risk analysis

scholarly journals Evolution of Frequency and Intensity of Concurrent Heavy Precipitation and Storm Surge at the Global Scale: Implications for Compound Floods

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yangchen Lai ◽  
Qingquan Li ◽  
Jianfeng Li ◽  
Qiming Zhou ◽  
Xinchang Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Storm Surge ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Annual Number ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Potential Threat ◽  
Extreme Storm ◽  
Increasing Trends

Compound flood raised from the concurrent heavy precipitation and storm surge receives increasing attention because of its potential threat to coastal areas. Analyzing the past changes in the characteristics of compound flood events is critical to understand the changing flood risks associated with the combination of multiple drivers/hazards. Here, we examined the evolution of the compound flood days (defined as days of concurrent extreme precipitation and extreme storm surge exceeding the 90th percentiles) based on the observed precipitation and storm surge data across the globe. Results show that the annual number of compound flood days increased significantly by 1–4 per decade (α = 0.1) on the east coast of the US and northern Europe, while the annual number of compound flood days decreased significantly in southern Europe and Japan. The increasing trends in precipitation under extreme storm surge and storm surge under extreme precipitation were found extensively across the world except in Japan, suggesting that more intense precipitation appeared when extreme storm surges occurred, and higher storm surge emerged when extreme precipitation occurred. Comparatively, the global fractional contributions of storm surge (i.e., 65%) on changes in compound flood days were higher than that of precipitation (i.e., 35%), demonstrating that storm surge was more likely to dominate the changes in the number of compound flood days. This study presents the spatial and temporal characteristics of the compound flood events at the global scale, which helps better understanding the compound floods and provides scientific references for flood risk management and an indispensable foundation for further studies.

scholarly journals ENSEMBLE FORECAST OF EXTREME STORM SURGE: A CASE STUDY OF 2013 TYPHOON HAIYAN

2017 ◽  
pp. 10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryota Nakamura ◽  
Tomoya Shibayama
Keyword(s):  
Storm Surge ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Ensemble Forecast ◽  
Ensemble Member ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Extreme Storm ◽  
Ensemble Mean ◽  
Almost All ◽  
Simple Numerical Model

The object of this study is to evaluate an ensemble forecast of extreme storm surge by using a case of Typhoon Haiyan (2013) and its associated storm surge. A simple numerical model composed of ARW-WRF, FVCOM and SWAN is employed as a forecast system for storm surge. This ensemble system can successfully forecast storm surge 3-4 days before it happened. However, the typhoons in almost all ensemble members were underpredicted probably because of its difficulty in forecasting a track and central pressure of highly intense typhoon. This leads to the underestimation of a prediction of storm surges around Leyte Gulf. Compensating the underestimation of forecasted extreme storm surge, it can be important to not only examine the ensemble mean among members but also consider the phase-shifted manipulation and the worst ensemble member in the case where the extreme storm surge is forecasted. In addition, the ensemble forecast system can have a potential to determine the time at which the peak of extreme surge appears with a high precision.

IMPACT ASSESSMENT ON STORM SURGE RISKS TO CONTAINERS CONSIDERING GLOBAL WARMING

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rikito Hisamatsu ◽  
Rikito Hisamatsu ◽  
Kei Horie ◽  
Kei Horie
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Inundation Depth ◽  
Risk Assessment Tools ◽  
Risk Maps ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Vulnerability Functions

Container yards tend to be located along waterfronts that are exposed to high risk of storm surges. However, risk assessment tools such as vulnerability functions and risk maps for containers have not been sufficiently developed. In addition, damage due to storm surges is expected to increase owing to global warming. This paper aims to assess storm surge impact due to global warming for containers located at three major bays in Japan. First, we developed vulnerability functions for containers against storm surges using an engineering approach. Second, we simulated storm surges at three major bays using the SuWAT model and taking global warming into account. Finally, we developed storm surge risk maps for containers based on current and future situations using the vulnerability function and simulated inundation depth. As a result, we revealed the impact of global warming on storm surge risks for containers quantitatively.

NUMERICAL MODELING OF STORM SURGES, WIND WAVES AND FLOODING IN THE TAGANROG BAY

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vladimir Fomin ◽  
Vladimir Fomin ◽  
Dmitrii Alekseev ◽  
Dmitrii Alekseev ◽  
Dmitrii Lazorenko ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Wind Waves ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Extreme Storm ◽  
Regional Atmospheric Model ◽  
Sea Level Oscillations ◽  
Flooding And Drying ◽  
Flooded Area ◽  
Taganrog Bay

Storm surges and wind waves are ones of the most important hydrological characteristics, which determine dynamics of the Sea of Azov. Extreme storm surges in Taganrog Bay and flooding in the Don Delta can be formed under the effect of strong western winds. In this work the sea level oscillations and wind waves in the Taganrog Bay were simulated by means of the coupled SWAN+ADCIRC numerical model, taking into account the flooding and drying mechanisms. The calculations were carried out on an unstructured mesh with high resolution. The wind and atmospheric pressure fields for the extreme storm from 20 to 28 of September, 2014 obtained from WRF regional atmospheric model were used as forcing. The analysis of simulation results showed the following. The western and northern parts of the Don Delta were the most flood-prone during the storm. The size of the flooded area of the Don Delta exceeded 50%. Interaction of storm surge and wind wave accelerated the flooding process, increased the size of the flooded area and led to the intensification of wind waves in the upper of Taganrog Bay due to the general rise of the sea level.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document