Developing a Mathematical Model of Foot and Mouth Disease

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mike Delorme
Keyword(s):  
Model Development ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Management Policy ◽  
University Of Alberta ◽  
Early Disease Detection ◽  
Foot And Mouth ◽  
The Uk

The outbreak of foot and mouth disease in the UK during 2001 resulted in the death of over 6 million animals and an economic loss of approximately $14 billion. Understanding the dynamics of the disease is important for preventing or managing future outbreaks. Several susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) models were formed and examined as a result of work completed during the PIMS Mathematical Biology Summer 2007 Workshop at the University of Alberta. The model development starts with the most basic disease dynamics and goes to include the effects of vaccination and patterns generated by early disease detection. This presentation will also include a brief discussion of herd immunity and Canadian disease management policy.

Developing a Mathematical Model of Foot and Mouth Disease

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mike Delorme
Keyword(s):  
Model Development ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Management Policy ◽  
University Of Alberta ◽  
Early Disease Detection ◽  
Foot And Mouth ◽  
The Uk

The outbreak of foot and mouth disease in the UK during 2001 resulted in the death of over 6 million animals and an economic loss of approximately $14 billion. Understanding the dynamics of the disease is important for preventing or managing future outbreaks. Several susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) models were formed and examined as a result of work completed during the PIMS Mathematical Biology Summer 2007 Workshop at the University of Alberta. The model development starts with the most basic disease dynamics and goes to include the effects of vaccination and patterns generated by early disease detection. This presentation will also include a brief discussion of herd immunity and Canadian disease management policy

scholarly journals Effect of data quality on estimates of farm infectiousness trends in the UK 2001 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic

2006 ◽  
Vol 4 (13) ◽  
pp. 235-241 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas J Savill ◽  
Darren J Shaw ◽  
Rob Deardon ◽  
Michael J Tildesley ◽  
Matthew J Keeling ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Data Quality ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Inaccurate Data ◽  
Foot And Mouth ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Parameter Values

Most of the mathematical models that were developed to study the UK 2001 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic assumed that the infectiousness of infected premises was constant over their infectious periods. However, there is some controversy over whether this assumption is appropriate. Uncertainty about which farm infected which in 2001 means that the only method to determine if there were trends in farm infectiousness is the fitting of mechanistic mathematical models to the epidemic data. The parameter values that are estimated using this technique, however, may be influenced by missing and inaccurate data. In particular to the UK 2001 epidemic, this includes unreported infectives, inaccurate farm infection dates and unknown farm latent periods. Here, we show that such data degradation prevents successful determination of trends in farm infectiousness.

scholarly journals John Burns Brooksby. 25 December 1914 — 17 December 1998

2007 ◽  
Vol 53 ◽  
pp. 77-92
Author(s):  
R. F. Sellers
Keyword(s):  
Disease Virus ◽  
International Organizations ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Virus Diseases ◽  
Animal Virus ◽  
Mouth Disease Virus ◽  
Foot And Mouth ◽  
The Uk

John Brooksby was an outstanding veterinary virologist, who worked at the Animal Virus Diseases Research Institute, Pirbright, for 40 years, for 16 of which he was Director of the Institute. He will be remembered for his contributions to the diagnosis of foot-and-mouth disease, for his discovery of four new types, for the classification of subtypes and for fundamental studies of the virus. As Deputy Director and Director he was responsible for programmes on fundamental investigations of foot–and–mouth disease virus and other viruses exotic to the UK and for the application of the results both in the UK and worldwide. His advice on the distribution and the control of foot–and–mouth disease was sought by international organizations and by individual countries and was responsible for reducing the risk of spread of disease.

scholarly journals Spatial and temporal distribution of foot-and-mouth disease in four districts situated along the Uganda–Tanzania border: Implications for cross-border efforts in disease control

2018 ◽  
Vol 85 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Susan D. Kerfua ◽  
Gabriel Shirima ◽  
Lughano Kusiluka ◽  
Chrisostome Ayebazibwe ◽  
Robert Mwebe ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Eastern Africa ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Distribution ◽  
Entire Study ◽  
Border Area ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Foot And Mouth

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is one of the major trans-boundary animal diseases in East Africa causing economic loss to farmers and other stakeholders in the livestock industry. Foot-and-mouth disease occurs widely in both Uganda and Tanzania with annual outbreaks recorded. With the recent introduction of the Progressive Control Pathway for FMD control (PCP-FMD) in eastern Africa, knowledge of the spatial and temporal distribution of FMD at the border area between Uganda and Tanzania is helpful in framing engagement with the initial stages of the PCP. Retrospective data collected between 2011 and 2016 from four districts located along the border areas of Uganda and Tanzania, recorded 23 and 59 FMD outbreaks, respectively, for the entire study period. Analysis showed that 46% of the 82 recorded outbreaks occurred in 20% of sub-counties and wards immediately neighbouring the Uganda–Tanzania border and 69.5% of the outbreaks occurred during the dry months. While the serotypes of the FMD virus responsible for most outbreaks reported in this region were not known, previous research reported South African Territory (SAT) 1, SAT 2 and O to be the serotypes in circulation. The results from this study provide evidence of the endemic status of FMD on the Uganda–Tanzania border and emphasise that the border area should be given due consideration during FMD control drives and that cross-border coordination should be prioritised. With the limited data on circulating serotypes in this area, there is a need for more vigilance on FMD case detection, laboratory diagnostic confirmation and provision of more complete documentation of outbreaks. This work further recommends more studies on cross-border livestock movement coupled with phylogenetics in order to understand the spread of the FMD in the border area.

Biochemical identification of viruses causing the 1981 outbreaks of foot and mouth disease in the UK

Nature ◽  
1981 ◽  
Vol 293 (5832) ◽  
pp. 479-480 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. M. Q. King ◽  
B. O. Underwood ◽  
D. McCahon ◽  
J. W. I. Newman ◽  
F. Brown
Keyword(s):  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Foot And Mouth ◽  
Biochemical Identification ◽  
The Uk

scholarly journals Parallels, differences and lessons: a comparison of the management of foot-and-mouth disease and COVID-19 using UK 2001/2020 as points of reference

2020 ◽  
Vol 287 (1938) ◽  
pp. 20200906
Author(s):  
Keith Sumption ◽  
Theodore J. D. Knight-Jones ◽  
Melissa McLaws ◽  
David J. Paton
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Animal Health ◽  
Scientific Information ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Foot And Mouth ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Disease Free ◽  
Rapid Emergence ◽  
Critical Resources

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is an extremely infectious viral infection of cloven-hoofed animals which is highly challenging to control and can give rise to national animal health crises, especially if there is a lack of pre-existing immunity due to the emergence of new strains or following incursions into disease-free regions. The 2001 FMD epidemic in the UK was on a scale that initially overwhelmed the national veterinary services and was eventually controlled by livestock lockdown and slaughter on an unprecedented scale. In 2020, the rapid emergence of COVID-19 has led to a human pandemic unparalleled in living memory. The enormous logistics of multi-agency control efforts for COVID-19 are reminiscent of the 2001 FMD epidemic in the UK, as are the use of movement restrictions, not normally a feature of human disease control. The UK experience is internationally relevant as few countries have experienced national epidemic crises for both diseases. In this review, we reflect on the experiences and lessons learnt from UK and international responses to FMD and COVID-19 with respect to their management, including the challenge of preclinical viral transmission, threat awareness, early detection, different interpretations of scientific information, lockdown, biosecurity behaviour change, shortage of testing capacity and the choices for eradication versus living with infection. A major lesson is that the similarity of issues and critical resources needed to manage large-scale outbreaks demonstrates that there is benefit to a ‘One Health’ approach to preparedness, with potential for greater cooperation in planning and the consideration of shared critical resources.

Stress and stereotypes: children's reactions to the outbreak of foot and mouth disease in the UK in 2001

2005 ◽  
Vol 19 (5) ◽  
pp. 348-359 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brigitte Nerlich ◽  
Sam Hillyard ◽  
Nick Wright
Keyword(s):  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Foot And Mouth ◽  
The Uk

Foot and Mouth Disease in Baghabari Milk Shed Area and It`s Economic Loss in Bangladesh

2004 ◽  
Vol 4 (5) ◽  
pp. 581-583 ◽  
Author(s):  
M.M.R. Howlader . ◽  
A.T.M. Mahbub-E-Elah . ◽  
S. Habib . ◽  
M.J.U. Bhuyian . ◽  
M.A.B. Siddique . ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Foot And Mouth
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