Analyzing reasons for projected long-term growth of real GDP of Russia

2019 ◽  
Vol 25 (11) ◽  
pp. 2575-2593
Author(s):  
V.V. Smirnov ◽  
◽  
A.V. Mulendeeva ◽  
D.G. Osipov ◽  
A.A. Babaeva ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Gdp

scholarly journals BANK PROFITABILITY AND MACROECONOMY: EVIDENCE FROM LITHUANIA

2017 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 383-405 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laurynas NARUŠEVIČIUS
Keyword(s):  
Banking Sector ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Empirical Examination ◽  
Bank Profitability ◽  
Pooled Mean Group ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Income Statement ◽  
Main Determinants ◽  
The Relationship

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between profitability of the Lithuanian banking sector and its internal and external determinants. We use the panel error correc­tion model to assess long-term and short-term determinants of items from bank income statements (net interest income, net fee and commission income and operating expenses). The results of the pooled mean group estimator show that bank size and real GDP are the main determinants in the long-term. Meanwhile, empirical examination suggests various variables as short-term determinants of income statement items. The pooled mean group estimation technique and the analysis of sepa­rate income statement items enable us to have a better insight into the Lithuanian banking sector and determinants of its revenue and expenses.

scholarly journals Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Instruments on Economic Growth in Jordan Using Vector Error Correction Model

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 194
Author(s):  
Rami Obeid ◽  
Bassam Awad
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Effect Of Monetary Policy

The global financial crisis emphasized the important role of the prudent monetary policy in supporting economic growth through maintaining price stability. The monetary policy operational framework that was designed in 2008 was updated to include more instruments for managing monetary policy learning from the crisis lessons. Several studies analyzed various dimensions related to economic growth in Jordan such as Abdul-Khaliq, Soufan, and Abu Shihab (2013) and Assaf (2014), there were no studies that investigated the effect of monetary policy on economic growth in Jordan, at least recently, however. The study aims at measuring the effect of monetary policy instruments on the performance of Jordanian economy. Using quarterly data covering the period (2005-2015), an econometric model was examined using Vector Error Correction Model to assess the impact of monetary policy instruments on economic growth. The foremost advantage of VECM is that it has a nice interpretation of long-term and short-term equations. The results showed the existence of positive long-term and short-term effects of monetary policy instruments on the growth of real GDP. The model included three monetary policy instruments besides money supply. They are required reserve ratio, rediscount rate and overnight interbank loan rates as independent variables, and the real GDP growth as a dependent variable. The stationarity of the model time series was addressed. In addition, the stability of the model was tested using stability diagnostics tools. The results showed also an existence of inverse relationship between rediscount rate and economic growth in Jordan over both long and short terms.

Capital-Flow Volatility and Economic Openness: A Wavelet Approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 66 (4) ◽  
pp. 291-318
Author(s):  
Mihai Mutascu ◽  
Scott W. Hegerty
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Capital Flow ◽  
Developed Economies ◽  
Oil Price Volatility ◽  
Real Gdp

The paper analyzes the interaction between capital-flow volatility and trade openness in five developed economies and four emerging markets by applying wavelet analysis over the period from 1990Q1 to 2017Q1. The main findings reveal that, in the medium term, capital-flow volatility drives trade openness in emerging markets and developing economies. Special attention should be paid to developed countries during the 2008 economic crisis, when trade exposure is shown to have had significant effects on capital-flow volatility. In the long term, the direction of comovement is rather idiosyncratic in our set of emerging markets and developing countries. Moreover, in both groups of countries, the intensity and persistence of relationships are very sensitive to the volatility of real GDP and secondary to geopolitical risk and oil-price volatility.

scholarly journals Taxation, government spending and economic growth: The case of Bulgaria

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 255-266
Author(s):  
G. Ganchev ◽  
◽  
I. Todorov ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

The objective of this article is to estimate the impact of three fiscal instruments (direct taxes, indirect taxes, and government expenditure) on Bulgaria’s economic growth. The study employs an autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) and Eurostat quarterly seasonally adjusted data for the period 1999–2020. Four control variables (the shares of gross capital formation, household consumption, and exports in GDP as well as the economic growth in the euro area) are included in the model to account for the influence of non-fiscal factors on Bulgaria’s real GDP growth rate. The empirical results indicate a long-run equilibrium relationship between Bulgaria’s economic growth and the independent variables in the ARDL. In the short term, Bulgaria’s real GDP growth rate is affected by its own past values and the previous values of the shares of direct tax revenue, exports, government consumption, and indirect tax revenue in GDP. In the long term, Bulgaria’s economic growth is influenced by its own previous values and the past values of the share of household consumption in GDP and the euro area’s real GDP growth rate. Fiscal instruments can be used to stabilize Bulgaria’s growth in the short run but they are neutral in the long run. The direct tax revenue, government consumption, and indirect tax revenue are highly effective and can be used as tools for invigorating and stabilizing Bulgaria’s economic growth in the short run. However, in the long term, the real GDP growth rate can be hastened only by encouraging domestic demand (final consumption expenditure of households) and promoting exports. This research cannot answer the question of whether flat income taxation stabilizes the economy or not, since it does not separate the impact of tax rate changes from the influence of tax base modifications.

scholarly journals Public Consumption and Income in the Long Run: A Panel Data Study for Central African Countries

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 101
Author(s):  
Impawe Augustin
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Adjustment Process ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Fiscal Adjustment ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Public Consumption

This article examines panel cointegration methods to study the long-run effect of public consumption on the real output of 10 Central African economies (ECCAS: CEMAC + 4) from 1990 to 2016. We integrate the investment in cointegration regression and take into account the transverse dependence in a panel data parameter. The results indicate on average that public consumption expenditure has a negative impact on long-term real GDP. Conversely, investment has a positive effect on income. Overall, the results show that a decrease in public consumption in the fiscal adjustment process has no effect on the growth of these economies.

scholarly journals Circular investments as a key to solving the growth dilemma

2021 ◽  
Vol 188 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 58-68
Author(s):  
Ludmila Kormishkina ◽  
◽  
Evgenii Kormishkin ◽  
Vladimir Gorin ◽  
Dmitrii Koloskov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Raw Materials ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression Model ◽  
Raw Material ◽  
Household Waste ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Methodological Foundation ◽  
Material Resources ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Scientific Hypothesis

The rationale for this study is based on the extreme importance of finding a solution to a complex growth dilemma arising from the negative effects of human activity and the limited ability of the ecosystem to regenerate and provide resources required by mankind to ensure sustainable development and the long-term prosperity. The research is aimed at proving a scientific hypothesis that states: when the global raw-materials crisis becomes increasingly noticeable in various countries of the world, including Russia, circular investments may become a driver for long-term economic growth and the launch of far-reaching reforms of the economy in the 21st century. Circular investments in this paper are viewed as a special type of real eco-investment that combines advancements in technology and innovations to ensure renewal and industrial-scale reproduction of resources (raw materials and energy) from industrial and household waste, along with the mitigation and/or elimination of negative effects, on the environment. A multiple linear regression model has been developed to confirm a statistically-relevant connection between circular investments and real GDP. As a methodological foundation for the model, we used the classic Cobb-Douglas production function modified to take into account industrially reproduced raw material resources included in the production process. Further, we have defined major limits for circular investments in Russia today and highlighted the primary measures which are to be taken to launch circular investments in order to find a solution to the complex growth dilemma.

scholarly journals Credit Cycles: Econometric Analysis and Evidence for Russia

2014 ◽  
pp. 113-122
Author(s):  
N. V. Artamonov ◽  
D. V. Artamonov ◽  
V. A. Artamonov
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Econometric Analysis ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Credit Cycles ◽  
Real Gdp

One of the principal problem in contemporary macroeconomics is concerned with factors increasing or decreasing economic dynamics. The mainstream approach is based on neoclassical assumptions, but recently new approaches appear mostly based on new Keynesian concepts. In present time the influence of monetary market and credit instruments become more and more significant. Credit resources of banking and financial structures can affect and distort to reallocation of resources for national and even for global economic. In present paper an empiric and econometric analysis for some macroeconometric and monetary indices for Russian Federation is done. An econometrical models describing the influence of credit variables onto real GDP is estimated. It is shown that in short-term periods changes in credit variables do influence significantly onto GDP. It is shown that on short-term periods changes in money aggregate M2 brings influence (through credit variables) onto national output. As well it is shown that changes in short-term interest rate brings significant negative influence onto real output. Impulse response functions for GDP on shocks of credit variables, monetary base and short-term interest rate are evaluated. For the present study of credit cycles and their impact to real business cycles statistical data (quarterly time series) on the following factors for Russian Federation are collected: nominal and real GDP, monetary base M2, short-term interest rate, long-term interest rate (10-year treasuries bill rate), total debt outstanding. All time series are seasonally adjusted and collected for the period 2004 Q1 - 2013 Q2. All interest rates are adjusted for inflation (i.e. we deal with real interest rates). The investigation of long-term relationship for the factors under consideration are based on integration. It is important to note that in the present paper all econometric models are estimated on "pure" statistical data, while in many research papers on business and credit cycles all evaluations and inferences are based on "filtered" time series (mostly filtered by Hodrick-Prescott's method). In present paper "causality" always means "Granger causality". All estimations are made in gretl, an open-source multiplatform econometric software.

scholarly journals Long-Term GDP Forecasts and the Prospects for Growth

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
THEODORE MODIS
Keyword(s):  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Logistic Growth ◽  
Growth Equation ◽  
Industrialized Countries ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Term Forecast ◽  
The Us ◽  
Real Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Per Capita

The growth of GDP is considered as a natural-growth process amenable to description by the logistic-growth equation. The S-shaped logistic pattern provides good descriptions and forecasts for both nominal and real GDP per capita in the US over the last 80 years. This enables the calculation of a long-term forecast for inflation, which is to enter a declining trend not so far in the future. The two logistics are well advanced, more so for nominal GDP. The assumption for logistic growth works even better for Japan whose nominal GDP per capita has already completed tracing out an entire logistic trajectory. The economic woes of industrialized countries could be attributed to the saturation of growth there, as if a niche in nature had been filled to capacity. In contrast, GDP growth in China and India is in the very early stages of logistic growth still indistinguishable from exponential patterns. The ceiling of these logistics can be anywhere between 7 and 15 times today’s levels.

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