Foreign expertise in stress testing of the banking sector and the possibility to adapt it to the Russian practice

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 343-358 ◽  
Author(s):  
N.A. Khutorova ◽  
V.V. Miroshnikova

Subject. Designated to measure the resilience of a financial system to stress in the real economy, spillover effects within the system and their induction, macroprudential stress testing is essential to the systemic risk assessment. Objectives. We examine the foreign expertise in stress testing of the banking sector and the possibility to adapt it to the Russian practice. Methods. The study is based on methods of analysis, comparison and systematization of the data collected. Results. We conducted a comparative analysis of the best foreign practices of stress testing in banking and evaluated whether it could be adapted to the Russian practice. Conclusions. Foreign stress testing practices are distinctive as the development level of financial markets and methodology of stress testing are different. The Basel Committee is a pivot in the development of principal approaches, which subnationally sets up the way the mechanism evolves. It is generalizing and analyzing regulators' practices in the leading countries. The stress testing methodology of the Central Bank of Russia is compliant with the Basel recommendations, with its quality being highly recognized under part of the IMF FSAP. The approach will help the Central Bank make stress testing more precise. It is reasonable to adapt some foreign practices, such as a stress testing horizon to be extended from a year up to 3–5 years; the use of dynamic balance sheets of banks to predict knock-on effects and an inverse reaction; the preparation of research and cyclical scenarios; the Central Bank's disclosure practice to be applicable to a greater audience; stress testing of the mala fide behavior risk.

2020 ◽  
Vol 110 (9) ◽  
pp. 2667-2702 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emil Verner ◽  
Győző Gyöngyösi

We examine the consequences of a sudden increase in household debt burdens by exploiting variation in exposure to household foreign currency debt during Hungary’s late-2008 currency crisis. The revaluation of debt burdens causes higher default rates and a collapse in spending. These responses lead to a worse local recession, driven by a decline in local demand, and negative spillover effects on nearby borrowers without foreign currency debt. The estimates translate into an output multiplier on higher debt service of 1.67. The impact of debt revaluation is particularly severe when foreign currency debt is concentrated on household, rather than firm, balance sheets. (JEL E21, E32, F34, G51)


Policy Papers ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 (29) ◽  
Author(s):  

This paper provides background information to the main Board paper, “The Role and Limits of Unconventional Monetary Policy.” This paper is divided in five distinct sections, each focused on a different topic covered in the main paper, though most relate to bond purchase programs. As a result, this paper centers on the experience of the United States Federal Reserve (Fed), the Bank of England (BOE) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ), mostly leaving the European Central Bank (ECB) aside given its focus on restoring the functioning of financial markets and intermediation. Section A explores whether bond purchase programs were effective at decreasing bond yields and, if so, through which channels. Section B goes one step further in evaluating whether bond purchase programs had—or can be expected to have—significant effects on real growth and inflation. Section C studies the spillover effects of bond purchases on both advanced and emerging market economies, using very similar methods as introduced in the first section. Section D breaks from the immediate focus on bond purchases to discuss how inflation might decrease the debt burden in advanced economies, in light of possible pressures that could fall (or be perceived to fall) on central banks. Finally, Section E discusses the possible risks of exiting given the very large central bank balance sheets.


2009 ◽  
pp. 9-27 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Kudrin

The article examines the causes of origin and manifestation of the current global financial crisis and the policies adopted in developed countries in 2007—2008 to deal with it. It considers the effects of the financial crisis on Russia’s economy and monetary policy of the Central Bank in the current conditions as well as the main guidelines for the fiscal policy under different energy prices. The measures for fighting the crisis that the Russian government and the Central Bank use to support the real economy are described.


2010 ◽  
pp. 61-81 ◽  
Author(s):  
O. Solntsev ◽  
A. Pestova ◽  
M. Mamonov

The article analyzes factors that affect growth of the share of non-performing loans in the loan portfolio of Russian banks and proposes approaches for this share forecasting on the basis of dynamics of macroeconomic indicators. It also deals with methodological issues of remote stress-test of lending agencies. Using the results of conducted stress-test of Russian banks the authors assess their perspective capital needs in 2010 and estimate the share of government assistance in capital injections. Furthermore, the authors define the scale of vulnerable banks groups in the Russian banking sector.


Author(s):  
Viral V. Acharya ◽  
Tim Eisert ◽  
Christian Eufinger ◽  
Christian Hirsch

This chapter compares the recapitalizations of the Japanese banking sector in the 1990s with those in the ongoing European debt crisis. The analysis points to four main policy implications. First, recapitalizing banks by insuring or purchasing troubled assets alone is not likely to solve the problem of banks’ weak capitalization, as this measure is not able to adjust the extent of the recapitalization to the banks’ specific needs. Second, the amount of the recapitalization should be based on actual capital shortages and not risk-weighted assets to avoid banks decreasing their loan supply. Third, banks should face restrictions regarding the amount of dividends they are allowed to pay out. Finally, banks must be induced to clean up their balance sheets and reduce the amount of bad (non-performing) loans to rebuild confidence in the European banking system.


2010 ◽  
Vol 214 ◽  
pp. F67-F72
Author(s):  
Ray Barrell ◽  
Simon Kirby ◽  
E. Philip Davis

The financial crisis that emerged during 2007 and overwhelmed the financial system in late 2008 also brought to the fore some of the obvious failings of the style of modelling that had been fashionable in central banks in the previous decade. The shift to Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium models (DSGE) of whatever sort left no real scope for money and financial markets to have an impact on the real economy. This was in part because equilibrium models based on theory are unlikely to be designed to cope with a period of disequilibrium, which is when the financial system becomes important in macroeconomics. DSGE models come in various guises, and it was common to operate with a three-equation model with demand, supply and the interest rate as the equations. It is hard to see how the financial sector could fit into this, or what use it would be even if it were included. Larger DSGE models that respect the national income identity are easier to augment with a financial sector; but even that developed by the US Federal Reserve (see Edge, Kiley and Laforte, 2010) tends to return to equilibrium rather more rapidly than seems reasonable.


2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (2) ◽  
pp. 26-48
Author(s):  
Volodymyr MISHCHENKO ◽  
◽  
Svitlana NAUMENKOVA ◽  
Svitlana MISHCHENKO ◽  
◽  
...  

The purpose of the article is to reveal the essence and features of the introduction of digital currency of central banks and their impact on the conditions of monetary policy, financial stability, as well as institutional transformations in the development of national banking systems. The study is based on an analysis of projects of issuance and use of digital currencies of the ECB and central banks of leading countries, as well as the results of pilot projects of the National Bank of China on the use of the digital yuan and NBU on the e-hryvnia circulation. It is proved that digital currency of the central bank should be considered as a new dematerialized form of national currency in addition to cash and non-cash forms. Particular attention is paid to the study of the impact of the use of digital currency by central banks on the main parameters of economic policy. The main directions of potential influence of digital currency use on transformation of mechanisms of realization of monetary, budgetary and tax, macroprudential policy, maintenance of financial stability, activization of action of channels of the monetary transmission mechanism, and also on reforming of system of the state financial monitoring and bank supervision are substantiated. It is determined that one of the consequences of the use of digital currency will be the ability to ensure full control over all monetary transactions, which will help reduce the shadow economy and corruption. Structural and logical schemes of centralized and decentralized models of issuance and circulation of digital currency of central bank have been developed, directions of changes in the structure and functions of commercial and central banks, as well as in the structure of the financial and credit system in general have been substantiated.


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